Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[abasile]

But I have to admit we're at the fate of a lot of corrupt businesses (and journalists apparently). So there's this sick feeling that, despite all success indicators here, this will go on for years. But that doesn't change my position on Tesla. Like many I'm sure, I have never used a stop-loss on this stock as that's a great way to miss the pop.

I don't use stop losses at all. However, I've sometimes sold covered calls (well out of the money) against a fraction of my TSLA position. I'm essentially betting that Wall Street manipulators won't let the stock run too far too quickly. This introduces some risk of missing a big pop, but that's why I only sell calls on a modest fraction of my holdings. Of course, I won't sell a call unless I'd truly be happy to sell at the strike price, and I do have an oversized TSLA position relative to other holdings.

 

[Tim S]

From the CS report - this is something you don't see every day:

View attachment 423994

I can easily map out a scenario where Credit Suisse is worth $0. They don't even know how to use the word "respectively" correctly.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I see ownership in a company as a spectrum of risk/reward, from most conservative to least:
convertible bonds -> stocks -> options

If you own shares and feel the SP is significantly underpriced and likely to correct soon, you can convert a portion to leaps. If the SP goes up as expected, you can sell the leaps and convert back to shares with the profits giving more stock. This means you almost always have dry powder if the stock is way down.

Interesting theory. I suppose that works for some people.

I, personally, don't feel I'm knowledgeable enough to really dive into the stock market. I've a government controlled IRA that I don't touch. I only purchase TSLA directly, since I believe in the company, I believe it will succeed, and it prevents me from spending the money on other frivolous things. I know the taxes are different depending on when I'll sell the stocks, and whether I've a total loss or gain therefrom, and thus ends my knowledge base, haha.

I'm likely never to do anything beyond buy TSLA in small increments, and then sell them for a Tesla at a later date. Good enough for me, even if it does suck that I can see the stock reaching 178, and had nothing to purchase more with.

 

[BoerumHill]

It seems that the Credit Suisse analyst's core argument is that Tesla has nowhere near the production prowess of VW or other large incumbents. That may be true today, at least in terms of production volumes, but Tesla has a history of learning quickly. Personally, I have to say that I've been impressed by the overall build quality and reliability of our Model 3 which was built in Sept. 2018. It's dramatically better, quality-wise, than our 2012 Model S (which is still a fabulous car). The key today is to increase battery production, but that's not a challenge unique to Tesla!

It’s not completely insane argument, given that right now a single factory supplies all the cars delivered to the U.S., Canada, U.K, 16 EU nations, Australia, China, and Hong Kong. But GF3 will be operational by YE and could produce 250K cars next year (with a ramp to 500K.) Hopefully GF4 will be in Europe.

Considering a decade ago they were hand assembling the Roadster 2.0s, it’s not that hard to imagine the production scaling rapidly and widely in the 2020s.

 

[Nocturnal]

That's because you think in a rational manner.
Sit on your toilet with a toothbrush in your mouth for a while ...that should do the trick.

That big wand with the bristles that sits next to the toilet is for my mouth?

 

[Don TLR]

Looks like more and more people are realizing Electrek is a while lotta clickbait

 

[Nocturnal]

that article is phenomenal. When they make a 'big short' style movie about the collapse of the ICE car companies, I expect this to be a key, and hilarious scene in it. BMW are so screwed.

In 30 years this kind of thing will be in B-school case studies alongside Kodak developing the digital camera before anyone else and then mothballing it because they didn't want to cannibalize their current business.

It’s not completely insane argument, given that right now a single factory supplies all the cars delivered to the U.S., Canada, U.K, 16 EU nations, Australia, China, and Hong Kong. But GF3 will be operational by YE and could produce 250K cars next year (with a ramp to 500K.) Hopefully GF4 will be in Europe.

Considering a decade ago they were hand assembling the Roadster 2.0s, it’s not that hard to imagine the production scaling rapidly and widely in the 2020s.

It misses a huge factor in business or economics in general. It's possible for followers to quickly leapfrog and catch up. Sure, it took Toyota 100 years (IDK how old they are exactly) to get to their current level of production efficiency, but it's foolish to think a new company can't catch up in 10 or 20. ​

 

[Boomer19]

I was wondering about the same thing and wanted to ask here but couldn't recollect his name. I believe he was in CNBC or is it Bloomberg?

He had this very whiny tone, and repeated the same thing over and over,

"look this company has never made a profit, sales are falling, competition is catching up, blah blah blah.."

he was on bloomberg. not sure if he still is. but i know he’s at work for ripple cryptocurrency now

 

[RobStark]

Average age of vehicles on U.S. roads hits 11.8 years

People are feeling comfortable keeping vehicles longer because they’re built better than in the past, said IHS Markit Director of Global Automotive Aftermarket Mark Seng.

“The quality is higher, lasting longer, withstanding the weather,” Seng said.

Plus, original owners are keeping their vehicles longer and maintaining them better because they’re financing them for longer, six or even seven years in many cases, he said.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I don't use stop losses at all. However, I've sometimes sold covered calls (well out of the money) against a fraction of my TSLA position. I'm essentially betting that Wall Street manipulators won't let the stock run too far too quickly. This introduces some risk of missing a big pop, but that's why I only sell calls on a modest fraction of my holdings. Of course, I won't sell a call unless I'd truly be happy to sell at the strike price, and I do have an oversized TSLA position relative to other holdings.

I do think that, eventually, TSLA will overpower the manipulators as part of the movement. I'm not sure why that hasn't taken off yet. I'd expect a Michael Moore to step forward here. He could even go after a mini-series on Elon's mission. There's a ton of material here, what's up with that?

 

[Christine69420]

Saw this in the electric vehicles side of the forums but thought it's so shocking that I'd figure I would post it here. Not sure if it already got posted. Crazy to watch BMW essentially give away future market share and act like they don't give a damn.

https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/nobody-wants-evs-says-bmw-119190/

That interview and BMW's attitude is simply shocking. I don't short any stocks because I don't agree with shorting stocks in general, just don't really think it's ethical. But damn it's tempting not to short BMW when they openly state their position. It's crazy to watch in real-time, the denial of a company what was once viewed as a trend setter in automakers. I guess it's time to start a countdown clock for BMW's eventual collapse???

BMW must have the classical problem of one hand not knowing what the other is doing.

BMW electric profits to rival traditional engines by 2025
Financial Times

and

BMW accelerates rollout of electric cars to catch up with rivals
Financial Times

 

[Nocturnal]

I do think that, eventually, TSLA will overpower the manipulators as part of the movement. I'm not sure why that hasn't taken off yet. I'd expect a Michael Moore to step forward here. He could even go after a mini-series on Elon's mission. There's a ton of material here, what's up with that?

Unfortunately, I think a lot of the same people who think that green tech is critical to our survival are also ambivalent or hostile to "large corporations" or "toys for rich people".

BMW must have the classical problem of one hand not knowing what the other is doing.

BMW electric profits to rival traditional engines by 2025

Financial Times

and

BMW accelerates rollout of electric cars to catch up with rivals
Financial Times

Just a different spin for a different audience. ​

 

[Mader Levap]

25 years ago viable fusion energy was believed to be 25 years away. Today viable fusion energy is believed to be about 25 years away.

Reason for that is very simple.

 

[Thekiwi]

 

[Maitri982]

I wrote greatly intensified, perhaps to your point I could have left it at intensified... but I’m not convinced of this. Yes, there’s always been utter nonsense, but, in the past their were a number of outlets that had at least some practicing journalism on staff. They are pretty much being stamped out and ‘smeared.’

Again, I recommend this read, particularly to @ZachShahan

It’s by a Pulitzer Prize winner who has been inside the likes of the NY Times in the past.


The Day That TV News Died | BillMoyers.com

It's the height of naivete' to think that journalists and editors are not at all influenced by the companies that pay their paycheck...namely the advertisers and/or those giving you lavish trips and freebies to demo their cars.

 

[canoemore]

Average age of vehicles on U.S. roads hits 11.8 years

People are feeling comfortable keeping vehicles longer because they’re built better than in the past, said IHS Markit Director of Global Automotive Aftermarket Mark Seng.

“The quality is higher, lasting longer, withstanding the weather,” Seng said.

Plus, original owners are keeping their vehicles longer and maintaining them better because they’re financing them for longer, six or even seven years in many cases, he said.

Perhaps they should take a page from Jack Donaghy's playbook for juicing microwave sales:

"Toofer: What if microwaves broke down more easily so people would have to buy new ones more often?

Jack: Yes, shoddier, excellent. Bigger and not as well-made.

Pete: Wow, that sounds exactly like the philosophy that almost destroyed the U.S. auto industry.

Jack: This isn't the auto industry, Pete. The auto industry was run by a bunch of out-of-touch white guys selling consumers a product they didn't want. We're G.E., damn it. And we're going to make a giant, flimsy microwave."​

 

[SOULPEDL]

Unfortunately, I think a lot of the same people who think that green tech is critical to our survival are also ambivalent or hostile to "large corporations" or "toys for rich people".

I could just see that with some, unfortunately. So set it straight with a movie then.

There's a reason once you own one, you never go back to ICE. That's not a rich thing, that's a better thing.

M. Moore, where the hell are you?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Average age of vehicles on U.S. roads hits 11.8 years

People are feeling comfortable keeping vehicles longer because they’re built better than in the past, said IHS Markit Director of Global Automotive Aftermarket Mark Seng.

“The quality is higher, lasting longer, withstanding the weather,” Seng said.

Plus, original owners are keeping their vehicles longer and maintaining them better because they’re financing them for longer, six or even seven years in many cases, he said.

Or they're like my wife and I, with vehicles aged 14 and 5 years, respectively, waiting to buy electric vehicles when we're financially ready. Will never purchase a ICE car again if I can help it. (Hurry up TSLA. ;-))

 

[Tslynk67]

Ha ha ha ha!

Credit Suisse is the sole bank tripped up by Fed stress test as rest get approval to boost payouts

Credit Suisse was the only Wall Street firm that didn’t sail through the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test, as competitors from J.P. Morgan Chase to Bank of America got approval to boost dividends and share buybacks.

The U.S. division of Zurich-based Credit Suisse has to fix problems the Fed found in its capital planning processes by Oct. 27, according to the Federal Reserve. Specifically, the Fed found weaknesses tied to assumptions the bank made for trading losses under a stress scenario. Credit Suisse has to keep its capital distributions at the 2018 level until it satisfies the Fed.

 

[Tim S]

Looks like more and more people are realizing Electrek is a while lotta clickbait
View attachment 424002

Honest question... what does he mean by "Electrekco cannot be trusted"? Is there something wrong in that headline about Elon telling employees to go "all out"?