Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SteveG3]

We're just as bad as the anti-Tesla folks if we choose to ignore the reasons upon which they base their claims. I personally rarely look at anything written by that author but I can see why it would make sense to do so.

In order to make a convincing argument for Tesla, you need to know the arguments against Tesla. Keeping our heads in the sand just makes for sandy hair...

I would agree with you in the case of anybody with an intellectually honest bearish view.

Anton has been blatantly intellectually dishonest re Tesla for at least six years in literally dozens of blogs on Seeking Alpha and Street.com.

One quick and humorous example that has stuck with me, his 8/4 2014 conclusion re how the then new Dodge Challenger is the end of Tesla,


“Tesla's life in the sun was nice while it was lasted. We all enjoy novelties, and new technology in particular. But now the Dodge brothers are back, and they put an end to this fruit-fly's life. Bye-bye, Tesla.”

Dodge to Tesla: Eat Your Heart Out


As I said there are dozens of examples of his intellectual dishonesty.

There was also the time he basically tried to brag to me on Seeking Alpha that he was a master of being able to argue any side of an argument regardless of what he thinks. He wrote something to that effect very directly in a comment to me. Disclosure, haven’t spent time on SA for years, and do not recommend doing so, lols.


Finally, there’s this, though I didn’t see in a quick google search how the lawsuit ended,


“The lawsuit alleges, among other matters, that between January 3, 2000 and July 20, 2000, UBS Warburg distributed research reports written by Wahlman that were false and misleading because they maintained a "buy" rating on Interspeed stock while, at the same time, Wahlman was privately sending e-mails to UBS personnel indicating that he believed that Interspeed stock should be shorted. The lawsuit also charges that Wahlman's research reports were false and misleading because Wahlman failed to disclose to the investing public his belief that Interspeed was engaging in "creative accounting."”

Investors Win Victory Against UBS Warburg in Analyst Research Lawsuit

funny that this was UBS, same firm that came out with a Tesla price target drop today.

 

[Chocochip]

OT


I'm not sure there is a problem with Al. The drive unit casing is aluminum, most of the suspension arms are aluminum (extruded and sliced). On other cars, the rear control arms are aluminum even engines are aluminum (with steel sleeves).

It’s not about the Al. Some Al alloys have quite good specific strength (i.e. strength / weight ratio), in the right conditions. But a casting will always have poorer mechanical properties compared to a forging, in your example the suspension arms.

If you look at the image posted of that part, it has a bunch of small sections that are supposed to be load-bearing. Cast Al parts don’t do that. The drive unit casing, for instance, is probably cast, but it doesn’t have any thin (small cross-section) load-bearing parts.

 

[urarthur]

not many votes, but my twitter poll seems accurate

 

[wipster]

I would agree with you in the case of anybody with an intellectually honest bearish view.

Anton has been blatantly intellectually dishonest re Tesla for at least six years in literally dozens of blogs on Seeking Alpha and Street.com.

One quick and humorous example that has stuck with me, his 8/4 2014 conclusion re how the then new Dodge Challenger is the end of Tesla,


“Tesla's life in the sun was nice while it was lasted. We all enjoy novelties, and new technology in particular. But now the Dodge brothers are back, and they put an end to this fruit-fly's life. Bye-bye, Tesla.”

Dodge to Tesla: Eat Your Heart Out


As I said there are dozens of examples of his intellectual dishonesty.

There was also the time he basically tried to brag to me on Seeking Alpha that he was a master of being able to argue any side of an argument regardless of what he thinks. He wrote something to that effect very directly in a comment to me. Disclosure, haven’t spent time on SA for years, and do not recommend doing so, lols.

Steve, I don't disagree with your characterization of Wahlman... I hold him in the same regard as fricking Montana Skeptic, perhaps even more despicable. But the anti-Tesla folks worship everything he says, despite the fact that all of it has been wrong. That's why we need to know what crap he's spewing today in order to call him out for it tomorrow. The best debaters know and understand exactly the thinking of their opponent in order to present the evidence to not only dispute it but to unequivocally show that it is wrong. That's the only point I was trying to make.

Regardless, we'll know the real numbers next week and I think they will be considerably higher than his predictions. And that will be great...

 

[brian45011]

Without battery packs at those chargers I don't see how it's remotely possible, unless we are talking about charging overnight.

Is it remotely possible with battery packs, regardless if the charging is done during the day or night? Over the road Class 8 trucks (with driver teams) seem to operate 24/7/365.

 

[Nocturnal]

Is it remotely possible with battery packs, regardless if the charging is done during the day or night? Over the road Class 8 trucks seem to operate 24/7/365.

Depends on total demand and number of packs I suppose. Sounds like a stretch though. Just for example, my local utility charges 25 cents per kWh for L3 public charging. The super off peak (midnight to 6AM IIRC) rate for kWh for residential customers is going to be around 4 cents per kWh. Com would be a little cheaper but Demand charges for these Megachargers will be pretty high. Peak price for the residential TOU is going to be about 20 cents per kWh.

I could see getting to that cost per kWh without demand charges factored in, but that is definitely a wildcard. Kanas has about average to somewhat below average energy prices from what I've seen.

 

[SteveG3]

Steve, I don't disagree with your characterization of Wahlman... I hold him in the same regard as fricking Montana Skeptic, perhaps even more despicable. But the anti-Tesla folks worship everything he says, despite the fact that all of it has been wrong. That's why we need to know what crap he's spewing today in order to call him out for it tomorrow. The best debaters know and understand exactly the thinking of their opponent in order to present the evidence to not only dispute it but to unequivocally show that it is wrong. That's the only point I was trying to make.

Regardless, we'll know the real numbers next week and I think they will be considerably higher than his predictions. And that will be great...

ah, okay, then yes, we’re well in agreement wipster, being aware of the false narratives that are in wide circulation helps.

 

[Christine69420]

Is it remotely possible with battery packs, regardless if the charging is done during the day or night? Over the road Class 8 trucks (with driver teams) seem to operate 24/7/365.

I belive eventually trucks will charge while loading and unloading cargo. And when having mandatory breaks.

Also we who have EVs know they can charge fast. So a few extra trucks on rotation for a big outfit and you always have a charged up one to use. You would not need an extra truck per team or anything like that. Much less.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

As Tesla resolves the cell and M3 production constraints while delivering all M3 versions into international markets, it also works off backlog (and deposits) that accumulated since the reveal at the end of March 2016. (Deepak may have said disclosure of current reservations would not be "meaningful," but some inquiring minds might find them helpful--not just about M3 but also Y and Semi's)

Don’t have time to react to all the points you’re bringing up, several of which are valid. But I think your point about Tesla working off the backlog is moot. During the last investor call we heard that 90% of new orders came from non-reservation holders. The TESLAQ crowd also keeps telling us every quarter that this is the quarter Tesla will finally run out of reservation holders and sales will crash. But we can put that argument to bed. It was one of the most important statements during the call and most journalists and analysts completely missed it.

 

[ZachShahan]

Is Tesla about to report record sales? This analyst says no

Thank you. I've drafted at article about how the goal posts of analyst sales/delivery forecasts shift from one quarter to the next about quarter X (for example, regarding Q4 2018 or Q1 2019 forecasts made during Q3 2018 and then updated in Q4 2018 or Q1 2019, or Q2 2019 forecasts made during Q1 2019 and then updated in Q2 2019), or from the beginning of the quarter to the end, and how those shifts in sales forecasts don't lead to corresponding shifts in stock price targets.

If anyone has some specific data on these topics — from specific analysts or FactSet — please send me a DM. Thank you

 

[ZachShahan]

I still can't wrap my head around seamlessly and casually the doubters moved their goalposts from "Tesla as no demand, $10 price targets etc." to "They won't quite hit their record sales goal so that's a disaster".

This is the tl;dr of the article I just mentioned.

 

[KSilver2000]

I belive eventually trucks will charge while loading and unloading cargo. And when having mandatory breaks.

I doubt it.

So, you’re saying the clients of these trucking companies are going to pay to have Superchargers installed (and foot the cost of electricity) right next to their roll-up doors for the benefit of the truckers?
Me thinks you don’t understand the logistics business.

 

[Fred42]

Q3 headwinds:
- US tax credit stepdown hangover
- End of pent-up SR+ demand in North America
- End of pent-up AWD/P demand in Europe
- China buyers possibly waiting for Shanghai version

There are some tailwinds, too, e.g. pent-up SR+ demand in Europe should last through Q3 and word-of-mouth effects should build. Q4 will have seasonal uplift, pull-forward from looming incentive stepdowns in US, Netherlands and China as well as possible Shanghai Model 3 availability.

Another Q3 tailwind will be Raven S&X availability throughout the quarter.

 

[ZachShahan]

I can easily map out a scenario where Credit Suisse is worth $0. They don't even know how to use the word "respectively" correctly.

They also used both "grey" and "gray." Must be on drugs. I'd short the stock.

 

[JRP3]

We're just as bad as the anti-Tesla folks if we choose to ignore the reasons upon which they base their claims. I personally rarely look at anything written by that author but I can see why it would make sense to do so.

In order to make a convincing argument for Tesla, you need to know the arguments against Tesla. Keeping our heads in the sand just makes for sandy hair...

Anton isn't worth reading. I have no interest in wasting my time trying to convince any of the Tesla trolls who try and pretend he presents a convincing argument for anything. He's a joke and should be treated as such.

 

[Darkfox021]

I doubt it.

So, you’re saying the clients of these trucking companies are going to pay to have Superchargers installed (and foot the cost of electricity) right next to their roll-up doors for the benefit of the truckers?
Me thinks you don’t understand the logistics business.

In addition to stopping at clients to deliver and/or pick up freight, all LTL trucks load/unload at the company terminal. Only OTR trucks would need to fill at a client location in this scenario. And yes, I'm sure many clients would install a charger for a discounted shipping rate. My company would. An outlet is cheap.

 

[StealthP3D]

But the anti-Tesla folks worship everything he says, despite the fact that all of it has been wrong. That's why we need to know what crap he's spewing today in order to call him out for it tomorrow. The best debaters know and understand exactly the thinking of their opponent in order to present the evidence to not only dispute it but to unequivocally show that it is wrong.

Treating a person like Anton Wahlman as an opponent worthy of debate gives him undeserved credibility. He should simply be ignored for the irrelevant tool that he is.

 

[brian45011]

Don’t have time to react to all the points you’re bringing up, …

I'm patient--would welcome your (or anyone's) perspective since I thought this forum was about trying to understand what is affecting TSLA's share price.

But I think your point about Tesla working off the backlog is moot. During the last investor call we heard that 90% of new orders came from non-reservation holders... It was one of the most important statements during the call and most journalists and analysts completely missed it.

Without providing context for that claim it is little other than meaningless. How many new orders do the 90% represent? Large corporations, such as construction companies like FLR and JEC, report both additions to backlog and the work-off of that backlog during the current quarter and provide "color" about those parameters going forward.

Tesla seems to be paranoid that similar disclosures will be mis-interpreted by potential investors (or for those here: da "shortz"). Wouldn't you or any other investor like to know what is the current backlog of orders for Tesla's current products:

• Model S back log in units
• Model X back log in units
• Model 3 back log in units
• Power Generation in MW
• Stationary Storage in MW-hr
• Model Y back log in units
• Semis back log in units
• Roadster back log in units ?

I would but YMMV.

 

[jerry33]

In addition to stopping at clients to deliver and/or pick up freight, all LTL trucks load/unload at the company terminal. Only OTR trucks would need to fill at a client location in this scenario. And yes, I'm sure many clients would install a charger for a discounted shipping rate. My company would. An outlet is cheap.

Unless the loading takes an exceptionally long time, say 24+ hours, being able to charge a Tesla Semi will require a lot more than just an outlet.

 

[winfield100]

Anton isn't worth reading. I have no interest in wasting my time trying to convince any of the Tesla trolls who try and pretend he presents a convincing argument for anything. He's a joke and should be treated as such.

@JRP3
Yes, Anton is a joke, but i think you fail to understand his function
It's to bring in eyeballs, by writing "controversial tripe"
in that he is a fairly good success
414 articles, ~262 that directly or indirectly mention or discuss Tesla/TSLA, with appx 82,000 comments/eyeballs on those 262 articles looking at the ads that bookend both sides of the articles
don't believe me? mention this and the "hand of ghod" will ban you to moderation permanently
SA's seemingly _real_ function is eyeballs for advertisers