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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It's the height of naivete' to think that journalists and editors are not at all influenced by the companies that pay their paycheck...namely the advertisers and/or those giving you lavish trips and freebies to demo their cars.

OK, call me naive, but I'm in the media business. Writers generally don't know, or when they know, don't really care who is running sponsorships on our site. We are a relatively small site. I think I rightfully assume that writers and editors at top media outlets mostly do not pay attention to or care who sponsors are. If they were greedy, they wouldn't be in journalism!

As I noted before, I do think auto journalists can have issues with this since they are so closely connected to auto companies via nonstop test drives and press events.

Ironically, Motor Trend seems to be one of the best at Tesla coverage. ;) I think that gets to a point in the 4000+ article I published yesterday — Motor Trend writes about what it knows, it knows cars, and it thus knows Teslas rock; major media outlets don't have journalists or editors who seem to understand Tesla, why it's disruptive, what that disruption means, and what's important to focus on.
 
@JRP3
414 articles, ~262 that directly or indirectly mention or discuss Tesla/TSLA, with appx 82,000 comments/eyeballs on those 262 articles

If the best counter-arguments were not regularly deleted (or not accepted for publication to begin with) he would have a lot more than 82,000 comments. I stopped providing responses to his articles a long time ago when I realized they just vanished into the ether.

I'm not sure this supports your theory that his job is simply to provide eyeballs for the advertisements.
 
Unless the loading takes an exceptionally long time, say 24+ hours, being able to charge a Tesla Semi will require a lot more than just an outlet.

Sorry, I guess I'm not using the right terminology.

The cost of installing a charging station, capable of allowing an OTR truck to plug in while loading, is a one time charge. Fuel is a tremendous portion of the cost of moving freight. The fuel "surcharge" currently runs at 20-30% over base rates (which already include some amount of fuel). At the right discount to freight rates, we would jump at the chance to install a charging station.

And all of that is a secondary point when considering a large percentage of freight moves by LTL, which routinely stops at a company owned terminal.
 
Reddit user Peel7 has a thorough analysis of his bull thesis for TSLA on his blog:

My Tesla Investment Thesis: Why Tesla is the most exciting thing going on in the world today

Definitely a good point of reference that put a lot of information into a single place.

Thanks for pointing us to this blog. It’s long, but it’s an informative read, very well researched (although most of it is no secret to those who have been paying attention). Definitely worth spending some time on. And there’s a nice surprise at the end when he does some bearish and bullish value calculations for 2030. One of them is guaranteed to blow your mind.
 
Sorry, I guess I'm not using the right terminology.

The cost of installing a charging station, capable of allowing an OTR truck to plug in while loading, is a one time charge. Fuel is a tremendous portion of the cost of moving freight. The fuel "surcharge" currently runs at 20-30% over base rates (which already include some amount of fuel). At the right discount to freight rates, we would jump at the chance to install a charging station.
Agreed fuel is a big cost. I believe we're talking about $100K for a Semi charging station (plus a bit more for each additional charging spot, assuming you want more than just one per location.)
 
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I am curious what others think of a few things.
1. When following available model S new cars in my region (within 200 miles of my zip) a single gray car kept coming in and out of inventory, different prices. It might have been different cars but tough to know. This was weeks ago, said car no longer listed for sale.
2. Tesla site says there are NO inventory model 3's available, has been that way for days. A week or two ago there were 10-20.
3. Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car That site lists lots of cars in my area. Are they slow to take them out? What gives?

How do you understand and follow such things?
 
I am curious what others think of a few things.
1. When following available model S new cars in my region (within 200 miles of my zip) a single gray car kept coming in and out of inventory, different prices. It might have been different cars but tough to know. This was weeks ago, said car no longer listed for sale.
2. Tesla site says there are NO inventory model 3's available, has been that way for days. A week or two ago there were 10-20.
3. Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car That site lists lots of cars in my area. Are they slow to take them out? What gives?

How do you understand and follow such things?
Impossible to track unless you take down the VIN #
 
OK, call me naive, but I'm in the media business. Writers generally don't know, or when they know, don't really care who is running sponsorships on our site. We are a relatively small site. I think I rightfully assume that writers and editors at top media outlets mostly do not pay attention to or care who sponsors are. If they were greedy, they wouldn't be in journalism!

As I noted before, I do think auto journalists can have issues with this since they are so closely connected to auto companies via nonstop test drives and press events.

Ironically, Motor Trend seems to be one of the best at Tesla coverage. ;) I think that gets to a point in the 4000+ article I published yesterday — Motor Trend writes about what it knows, it knows cars, and it thus knows Teslas rock; major media outlets don't have journalists or editors who seem to understand Tesla, why it's disruptive, what that disruption means, and what's important to focus on.

The reporters are generally separated from advertisers as far as the newspaper is concerned, but the companies like auto manufacturers and oil companies make it a point to build relationships with reporters with preferred sources. They're able to because 1) they have a profit motive for doing so, 2) they have a budget to fund that effort.

When reporters become familiar with company experts or representatives, they're exposed more often to their point of view. Usually, the views of competing companies cancel each other out, but that is not the case for Tesla.

All the experts presented by nearly every oil company, automotive manufacturer, and dealership groups say the same thing - that Tesla is bad. When every expert says the same thing, it's hard to deny their collective influence.

I recently built a small website about a niche technology that has almost no viewers. Not long after, I was contacted by one of larger companies in the industry that wanted to update me on their products. So if someone like me, Mr. Nobody, gets contacted, what would their PR coordinators do to maintain relationships with reporters in major news organizations?

Just curious, have companies contacted you based on the articles you wrote?
 
Today was a boring day, with 5 mln shares traded (average is 11 mln), except for this gold.
Someone wasted about $60k on a Jul'19 expiration $50 strike put options.
upload_2019-6-29_0-30-43.png
 
Another Q3 tailwind will be Raven S&X availability throughout the quarter.

And another may be Canada. Since the federal incentive came in part way through May my guess is a full 15 percent of Tesla production is now being sold in Canada. June numbers should be indicative of that but my guess is July August and September will be very strong in the great white North. And not just for Tesla but for all manufacturers of EV’s. We put in an order for a Leaf SL Eplus and it will be January (so 2020 model) before we get it. Tesla is the only EV manufacturer with mass production so they will do well as they are essentially almost the only game in town. Not everyone is as patient as us. :)
 
Don’t have time to react to all the points you’re bringing up, several of which are valid. But I think your point about Tesla working off the backlog is moot. During the last investor call we heard that 90% of new orders came from non-reservation holders. The TESLAQ crowd also keeps telling us every quarter that this is the quarter Tesla will finally run out of reservation holders and sales will crash. But we can put that argument to bed. It was one of the most important statements during the call and most journalists and analysts completely missed it.
They missed it because they only hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. Hey, that was a Simon and Garfunkle tune back in the day.


Dan
 
I'm patient--would welcome your (or anyone's) perspective since I thought this forum was about trying to understand what is affecting TSLA's share price.



Without providing context for that claim it is little other than meaningless. How many new orders do the 90% represent? Large corporations, such as construction companies like FLR and JEC, report both additions to backlog and the work-off of that backlog during the current quarter and provide "color" about those parameters going forward.

Tesla seems to be paranoid that similar disclosures will be mis-interpreted by potential investors (or for those here: da "shortz"). Wouldn't you or any other investor like to know what is the current backlog of orders for Tesla's current products:
  • Model S back log in units
  • Model X back log in units
  • Model 3 back log in units
  • Power Generation in MW
  • Stationary Storage in MW-hr
  • Model Y back log in units
  • Semis back log in units
  • Roadster back log in units ?
I would but YMMV.
Honestly, the one thing about which I am curious is how many of the original ~400K reservations of the model 3 still remain on the books and how many have placed an order and received their car. As well as how many remaining reservations are in countries that Tesla currently doesn't service (i.e., India).

Wouldn't want it published, just want to know (nudge nudge, wink wink)...;-)
 
Today was a boring day, with 5 mln shares traded (average is 11 mln), except for this gold.
Someone wasted about $60k on a Jul'19 expiration $50 strike put options.
View attachment 424457

I'll bet that's just an "error". Probably done on purpose but totally meaningless, not representing any actual puts. Just more FUD in an attempt to discourage other Tesla traders.

On the other hand, with people out there as stupid as "toilet bowl", maybe it's real! If "dumb money" didn't exist, the term "smart money" never would have been coined.
 
it boggles my mind that anyone still thinks hybrids are a good idea. I have a lexus CT200h hybrid before my tesla, and my wife now drives it. Its awful. Its basically a petrol car, with a stop start engine. I *can* toggle it into pure electric mode, and I can just about drive to the end of my street if I stay under 15 mph. (I'm not kidding).
Nicer to drive than an ICE, because less fumes and no noise when stationary. Otherwise...awful.

And compared to my model S? LOL. There is no comparison.

in a world where tesla had never been started, maybe I'd be buying a new hybrid right now, but tesla exists and they make all hybrid cars look like a joke. You can tell the auto companies with zero chance of survival because they are the ones desperately pushing hybrids as their death rattle.

Guess what, our 19 year old stalwart Lexus LS430 has repeated battery problems. Just 100k miles!