Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AZRI11]

Well, how Patriotic of you. Thank ye!

Let us know how it goes on Monday. Good luck!

Cheers!

Didn't go well. Thanks to the Wall Street Journal, and with no help from CNBC, my CEO thinks Tesla is in deep financial trouble. My CEO is like Elon, also CEO of another company When he asked if I owned any stock in TSLA and I said yes, he pulled back a little. I think he felt sorry for me . Our leased fleet of Volvo's D13 expires at the end of next year. Only 14 semi trucks. Our 2nd distribution center has 10 trucks. The company that we acquired a majority of has about 150 trucks! I don't when their leases expire. Ours are 7 year leases from Penske. We could extend the lease if we can't get a better deal at expiration. The problem is the lowest bidder cost per mile gets the contract. Tesla would be the lowest, but will they be available at the end of next year? CEO'S first cousin is our head of logistics. He is why we have a 1 megawatt solar system on our roof It (Tesla Semi) would be a done deal if it was in production right now. Also he agreed with me on a Tesla powerpack for energy storage. That might be all that I can get for now. CEO's sister (family business) Is very close to buying a Tesla. Maybe that would be a tipping point. P.S. frack the Wall Street Journal and CFUNBC.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Sadly and as a huge Apple fan, I agree with Gerber: innovation is dead at Apple. The below article supports this. I know people that made 10x in Apple, and still holding. Why? Tesla is the new Apple. Time to switch.

Jony Ive ‘dispirited’ by Tim Cook’s lack of interest in product design:
A narrative is growing that Ive’s exit from Apple started years ago

'Engineers found that the doomed AirPower charging pad “behaved more like a dorm-room hot plate, heating up loose change and failing to evenly recharge devices.”'

-- what a colossal waste. What on earth is Apple doing with its billions? Can't even create a working wireless charger.

** Peak Apple. Tesla just getting started. **

Note: OT after hours.

I've pretty much switched to TSLA, but I don't agree with the article at all. And there's no reason to expect that Wall St. has the slightest clue about Apple, or that the media isn't just as full of Apple FUD as ever. AAPL is, after all, highly shorted as well. IMHO Ive has been making himself increasingly irrelevant with his thin uber alles approach to design. He's certainly the guy most responsible for Apple's butterfly keyboard problems.

What's missing with Jobs is somebody who can force the hardware engineers to do something brilliant enough to contain Ive's visionary designs. Without the engineering that goes one step beyond, the design becomes a liability. The Watch, as it is, is brilliant and wonderful and doesn't need to be any better designed -- it just needs more sensor integration.

Ultimately, Tim Cook (supply chain) is way more important to Apple than Jony Ive (design). Apple's designs will just be two or three times as good as the competition's instead of ten times. It won't make any difference except to a few aesthetes. While getting the supply chain right will continue to be absolutely critical to Apple's success.

Ive will go off and have a wonderful time designing tomorrow's autonomous mobile living room. Whether that ends up as part of Apple's Titan project or somebody else's solution I haven't any idea. I just hope he doesn't get involved with Tesla.

 

[Green Pete]

Airframes are hard. I mean, really really asterisking hard. The government testing for them to be approved is really slow, too.

Given how busy Tesla is, what I think is much more likely would be Tesla selling powertrain kits to the other airplane manufacturers: batteries, chargers, maybe even motors and propellers, but letting someone else do the obnoxious airframe validation. Tesla's use of cylindrical cells makes it very possible for them to create small "airworthy" battery modules which could be packed into the airframe in whatever manner was appropriate for the particular plane.

I know nothing about the aerospace industry, but would Musks other venture, SpaceX, not easily lend some expertise to this? It would be pretty amazing if I could summon a self driving Model 3 to pick me up at home drive me out of the city through a boring company tunnel, take me to a public VTOL site, and have a Tesla Autonomous X-Wing (Im just making up fun names) take off with VTOL and fly me 500 miles and land only to have a Tesla Model 3 on site ready to pick me up and drive me from the public VTOL site to my Dads house, all through 1 click on the Tesla App.

Maybe even have two VTOL aircraft and in between jump on the BFR and get to Asia in 30 minutes and see my wife's Dad. There just seems to be an opening here to be THE answer to transportation, which is what it seems like uber wants to claim via brand recognition, but I feel like Tesla could easily outdo them with their tech and manufacturing capacity.

In theory one could someday book a ticket to Mars through the Tesla app. Obviously it would be a long trip and probably not be something you would want to fall under the 1-click purchase feature given the price will never be chump change. But still, one can dream no?

 

[trentbridge]

Get paid better, get better work hours, and get more decision-making authority.

Even if they figure the startup is likely to fail, they might think it was more fun.

Everyone in my experience knows the eye-rolling that happens among the staff at those first few meetings: when the small company hires the senior executive from the larger, more successful company..

Sentences begin with: "At Tesla, we did blah blah blah.." Really? When you're doing $8 billion in quarterly sales like Tesla you have way more leeway for such insights than a start-up like Lucid Motors has...his thought processes are probably calibrated to the wrong size of organization. Tesla has got this far by not hiring many experienced senior executives out of Detroit..because saying: "At GM, we did blah, blah blah.." isn't helpful at an electric car company start-up.

 

[Sparky4life]

Now that a record deliveries quarter is within reach, the short argument seems to be that they won't be able to make a profit like they did in q4 because ASP is dropping due to a higher mix of SR Model 3s and that this will be the case going forward. What's the most effective argument against that thesis?

My assumption is that increased production rates due to efficiencies and increasing demand in existing and new markets will offset the drop in ASP.

I'm ultra long so I'm not worried too much about the short term, but I do want to argue effectively against the FUD. And I want to educate myself. I'm a software engineer, not a finance expert

 

[MartinAustin]

the short argument seems to be that they won't be able to make a profit like they did in q4 because ASP is dropping due to a higher mix of SR Model 3s and that this will be the case going forward. What's the most effective argument against that thesis?

The company isn't running out of money. Production and sales are expanding. Competitors are trying, but can't reach them. Demand isn't a problem. Tesla are in the right kind of industry these days (vs. fossil fuels etc.)

It's doesn't matter how uneven the various aspects of each quarter are... as they progress to two full-time gigafactories in production (counting Fremont+Sparks as one), and beyond, there is no way the company can be stopped.

Further - huge market segments like CUV, pickup and semi are about to be exploited. Tesla are the only company that mass produce. Tesla are the only company that design+make their own cars, motors, and batteries.

 

[brian45011]

Well, we know where Peter H went:

Lucid Motors Appoints Peter Hochholdinger as Vice President of Manufacturing

Negates the rationalization that he left Tesla because of a yearning for the Motherland. Has Lucid supplanted Apple as the graveyard for senior Tesla execs who couldn't cut it?

 

[Artful Dodger]

My feeling based on their battery capacity/R&D as well as their NN experience with vision that Tesla could jump in the game and be a major competitor < 8 months. I base this off of the fact that they can secretly work on something (like the Pickup Truck) and from unveiling to production take about 8 months, so I don't see why an air taxi would be much different.

The battery energy density isn't there yet for electric air transport. During the June 2017 AGM, Elon said it'll be 5 years (2022) before Tesla has 500 wh/kg batteries in production (start listening at 3:04):

Notice that Elon didn't say "Panasonic?" Notice that he said "we?"

I think the Maxwell acquisition has been on his mind for some time. 400 wh/kg makes electric flight possible with "substantial innovation in the airframe. At 500 it starts to become quite compelling."

Personnally, I think the new "Giant-Cube" Grohmann machine builds 'Maxcells', and soon we'll all be swimming in Tesla Semi's, Pickups, Model 2s, and FCF...

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Do you guys think the leaked emails about hitting records or getting really close to hitting records a good thing or bad thing for shareholders?

CNBC upped their delivery expectations to 93k+ based on pulling numbers out of their ass. Looks like they are setting Tesla up for a miss, probably already wrote the article and just need to fill in a few numbers when we get the report in the next few days.

Wouldn't a record delivery without leaked emails completely blind side analysts and give them no chance to set Tesla's number up as a miss?

 

[Remus]

Now that a record deliveries quarter is within reach, the short argument seems to be that they won't be able to make a profit like they did in q4 because ASP is dropping due to a higher mix of SR Model 3s and that this will be the case going forward. What's the most effective argument against that thesis?

My assumption is that increased production rates due to efficiencies and increasing demand in existing and new markets will offset the drop in ASP.

I'm ultra long so I'm not worried too much about the short term, but I do want to argue effectively against the FUD. And I want to educate myself. I'm a software engineer, not a finance expert

pretend all they want, their hope was no demand so bankruptcy soon. As long as Tesla has positive cash flow within reach, with 6B in bank, the bankruptcy story is dead.

 

[brian45011]

Civil complaints in US are "notice pleadings" that contain broad descriptions of your claim against a defendant. You are not required to list all of your evidence and will have other opportunities to find additional evidence through discovery. The defendant can either answer the complaint or file various motions to have it dismissed. If I am not mistaken I think I recall that Tesla also served notice to third parties to preserve emails etc on this matter.
If Tesla's claim were totally lacking in evidentiary support, I would have expected a dispositive motion by now. However I must admit I only have knowledge based on my readings here and the publicity when this matter first came out.

Tesla is now on its 3rd General Counsel since the petition was filed.

 

[Thekiwi]

Now that a record deliveries quarter is within reach, the short argument seems to be that they won't be able to make a profit like they did in q4 because ASP is dropping due to a higher mix of SR Model 3s and that this will be the case going forward. What's the most effective argument against that thesis?

My assumption is that increased production rates due to efficiencies and increasing demand in existing and new markets will offset the drop in ASP.

I'm ultra long so I'm not worried too much about the short term, but I do want to argue effectively against the FUD. And I want to educate myself. I'm a software engineer, not a finance expert

Tesla itself guided for 90k-100k deliveries and a loss for Q2. As the SR+ makes up up a large amount of orders going forward it absolutely makes sense for ASP to drop compared to earlier quarters which were all performance/LR/MR models, especially in quarters with limited S/X availability (like Q2). Musk himself thinks the long term ASP is somewhere around $42k, If I recall correctly.

Tesla is probably not far away from profits at 90k, and the answer to TSLA trolls regarding profitability is that margins on M3 continue to improve and so does the volume, which invariably will lead to profits, probably around 100k-110k unit range (depending on S/X/3 mix).

Probably won’t have to wait long for that, possibly Q3 guidance given at Q2 earnings on 4-5 weeks will signal Q3 profits with 100k deliveries.

 

[Thekiwi]

Do you guys think the leaked emails about hitting records or getting really close to hitting records a good thing or bad thing for shareholders?

CNBC upped their delivery expectations to 93k+ based on pulling numbers out of their ass. Looks like they are setting Tesla up for a miss, probably already wrote the article and just need to fill in a few numbers when we get the report in the next few days.

Wouldn't a record delivery without leaked emails completely blind side analysts and give them no chance to set Tesla's number up as a miss?

I agree with your sentiments - although “record deliveries” in the low 90k’s will still be at the lower end of Tesla guidance. Normally a company being at the lower end of it’s guidance wouldn’t be that great, but after the Q1 shocker miss it may have been a nice surprise, but the share price would probably still be sitting below $200 without Elon’s emails.

 

[brian45011]

Am I missing anything?

Dunno, but in early August watch the Customer Deposit balance as an imperfect indicator of future demand, especially if the recent trend reverses:
1Q19 $0.77 Billion
4Q18 $0.79 Billion
3Q18 $0.91 Billion
2Q18 $0.94 Billion
1Q18 0.98 Billion

 

[JusRelax]

Musk himself thinks the long term ASP is somewhere around $42k, If I recall correctly.

Agreed. Long term, average stock price per share [ASP] is $42k. #notsellingasharetill$42k

 

[powertoold]

If I put a limit sell on my shares at $2,000, will that limit the shares that the shorts can borrow?

 

[ZachShahan]

Lol! Have you read his twitter feed? He's TSLAQ-pwnd. But you got the clueless right.

Matthew DeBord‏ @mattdebord Apr 15

Spent a bit of time mixed in with the #TSLA #TSLAQ thing this weekend. This is all you need to know: Both sides are wrong. This entire debate needs to be reset around what TSLA actually is as a business.

19 replies 0 retweets 5 likes​

So, upon10 weeks of reflection. Matt has concluded that BMW is fine, and Tesla is doing it wrong? And it doesn't matter what their production report is, 'cuz they're wrong?

Give me a break. This is a profit-motivated opinion piece, timed to affect the Market by pre-conditioning reaction to the production report. Typical BI tripe.

'This is all you need to know.'

Have to love Business Insider "reporters" who think they're smarter than Elon Musk.

 

[MP3Mike]

If I put a limit sell on my shares at $2,000, will that limit the shares that the shorts can borrow?

Not from what he have been told by Ihor Dusaniwsky. Your shares can only be lent if one of two things is true: (at least in the US)

• You signed up for a fully-paid lending program
  
• They are in a margin account with an active margin balance. (And then your shares can be lent out up to the collateral value.)

 

[Yamantasdivar]

A little bird told me that deliveries were between 50k and 150k

 

[ZachShahan]

As I've pointed out previously DeBord is "uneven" at best.

According to our last Pravduh About Tesla report, he had 19 negative headlines and 15 positive ones: Rare Net Positive Week For Tesla Media Coverage, But ... (#Pravduh About #Tesla Report 23) | CleanTechnica