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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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agreed, and its both hilarious and sad (and also staggering) that we all here know this, and yet CEOs at places like BMW cant understand it.

they do know it, but, they do not want to do a demolition job to their ICE business (cash cow, ATM, etc, for as long as they’ve existed) ever.

producing EVs of the quality of Tesla’s cars are such a demolition job.

eventually they will not have the option of deferring on such EVs if they want to remain major automakers.

until then, competing with Tesla is about public perception games, not products, because competing on product would implode the only meal ticket they’ve ever known, their ICE business.

we have no shortage of public perception games competing with Tesla.
 
To really be a Tesla killer, a car needs to be competitive to Model 3 (and soon Y) in terms of:
  • price
  • performance
  • range
  • charging speed and infrastructure
  • style
  • features (auto pilot, OTA upgrades, etc)
Without all of those, it's just a car with batteries and an electric motor.
  • availability in significant numbers
i.e. to be a 'killer' of any kind.
 
So compared to a year ago, Model X sales are actually up slightly, while Model S sales are down by about 40%.

it appears the Model 3 is cannibalizing the Model S far more than the Model X ... I suppose that makes sense. The X has much more to differentiate itself -- the gull wing doors, the SUV trappings, and the third row of seats. The Model S will need more than a suspension upgrade and minor range bump in order to stay viable as a a significant step up from the 3. Can't wait to see what they have in store.

Have to wait until next quarter to really know. Raven had to ramp up while Tesla was getting rid of old inventory. So there are major inefficiencies there.
 
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They're estimating. But they have a good track record.

OK, that's totally fine and I agree. It just seems that many people treat the numbers like they aren't based on publicly available info (like they have delivery figures from somewhere), so wanted to be extra sure they don't have some source that I somehow didn't know about.
 
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OK, that's totally fine and I agree. It just seems that many people treat the numbers like they aren't based on publicly available info (like they have delivery figures from somewhere), so wanted to be extra sure they don't have some source that I somehow didn't know about.
"One primary source of data is VIN numbers and additional delivery information reported by Tesla buyers around the web, social media, and to InsideEVs directly. We also use global sales and registration data when available. We place less importance on rumored or "leaked" reports of weekly production, as they vary wildly, are often incorrect, and are not always representative of monthly deliveries. We do consider this information when it is from a source that we trust."
 
So compared to a year ago, Model X sales are actually up slightly, while Model S sales are down by about 40%.

it appears the Model 3 is cannibalizing the Model S far more than the Model X ... I suppose that makes sense. The X has much more to differentiate itself -- the gull wing doors, the SUV trappings, and the third row of seats. The Model S will need more than a suspension upgrade and minor range bump in order to stay viable as a a significant step up from the 3. Can't wait to see what they have in store.

No doubt there is cannibalizing, but also I think that’s just the plight of the premium sedan market. Throughout the auto industry, sedans are dropping off. I also expect decline of 3 sales when Y comes to market. People just prefer the CUV/SUV form factor.
 
Just in case anyone wasn't aware of it, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld has been a reliable promoter of TSLAQ false narratives in the past, with numerous ties to Tesla short Jim Chanos and other TSLAQ figures:





Jeffrey Sonnenfeld has been helpfully supplying near-malicious anti-Tesla soundbites in support of Jim Chanos's short positions for a long time, with impeccable market timing.

If Sonnenfeld is in any way connected to Yale's ~$30b investment fund:

Yale Investments Office

"Totaling $29.4 billion on June 30, 2018, the Endowment contains thousands of funds with a variety of purposes and restrictions. Approximately three-quarters constitute true endowment - gifts restricted by donors to provide long-term funding for designated purposes. The remaining one-quarter represents quasi-endowment, monies that the Yale Corporation chooses to invest and treat as endowment."
And if those Yale investments investments include auto and oil stocks, which are disrupted by Tesla, then the attacks of Sonnenfeld against Tesla might IMHO be a possible ethics violation, conflict of interest and maybe market manipulation.

Is there any public information about Yale's investments, and how they are affected by Tesla?

I found this... How Do The Rich Invest? A Look Inside Yale Endowment's Asset Allocation

It does not list specific investments, but Yale definitely has a large investment in hedge funds (26% target allocation in 2019).

"About 26 years ago, Yale became the first institutional investor and university endowment to define absolute return strategies as a distinct asset class, beginning with a 15% target allocation. Absolute return strategies is code word for hedge funds, as hedge funds look to provide a positive return in both bull and bear markets."

They also have a 6.5% target allocation for "Natural resources" in 2019.
 
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Europe logistics: We (TMC) have seen Elon’s aircraft in Europe in recent weeks (twice?). We (TMC) had wondered if it might be GF 4 related.
However with the departure of the head of European operations (Oehmicke), is it possible that there were European logistics issues that necessitated Elon’s presence, and a resulting dismissal of Oehmicke?
The relevance is that it could portend lower European deliveries than had been hoped for.
 
What is the inference to be had from spurred sales due to incentives, I wonder?

a) People buy more because they feel like they're getting a good deal, or
b) People buy more because the product is very desirable, but just a little out of reach

Mix of column a / column b?