Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chocochip]

So far, this win feels like a win!

 

[Garlands]

So record production/deliveries plus higher totals for Q3, how will the bears spin this?

 

[Heimdallr]

Q3: Production and deliveries >100,000 each? Profitability due to higher Model S/X sales ("Raven")?

 

[anon]

Model 3 production at average 5500/week seems a little disappointing unless there was downtime for the upgrades to take them towards 7k/week, but Model S/X production is surprisingly high given that there was some downtime for the Raven introduction - I guess they've either significantly improved single-shift production efficiency or already started bringing back up the second shift. The number is higher than for Q1, even though they had 2-3 weeks of old double-shift production at the beginning of Q1.

 

[Cherry Wine]

SP at 241. Wish I had bought more calls

Inventory has reduced a lot, this will greatly help cash flow.

I expect non-gaap break-even or small profit. More than $1 Billion in operating cash flow !

Update to your spreadsheet incoming?

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Wow they said orders exceeded deliveries this quarter that's incredibly bullish for demand seeing as they delivered 95k vehicles! That China factory can't come soon enough.

 

[ZachShahan]

Tesla usually doesn't give guidance for future production/deliveries when they do their quarterly production/delivery numbers(I think the one exception was they gave guidance for Q3 2018 numbers when they announced Q2 numbers....I could be wrong though).

But if Tesla announced something like 93-94k deliveries and then said something like 110-120 deliveries for Q3, I could see it trouncing any attempt for a bear attack. I always wish/hope that they can get to a point in their production of both the cars and the batteries to give production/delivery numbers at the beginning of the new quarter when the previous quarters numbers are announced. Would help the narrative I feel. We all know that when they announce numbers tomorrow or Friday, that bears will shout to the heavens that this is the peak and that it's all downhill from here.

Only 93-94K — why so pessimistic?

 

[mrdoubleb]

So far, this win feels like a win!

Wait until CNBC and Bloomberg tell you why it isn't.

 

[tinm]

My personal prediction was 93,400. I'm delighted to know I was low.

 

[Fact Checking]

So M3 production is still about 5500 per week.

5,580 per week - and they kept end of quarter inventory really tight, which means the cash metrics should be showing nice improvements. They also noted that they have an increasing backlog of orders.

They also didn't ramp up S/X Raven production early in the quarter - but we knew that: 14,517 S/X units made and 17,650 delivered means they've probably sold most of the pre-Raven inventory units.

 

[Tslynk67]

Jul 02,2019
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PDF Version
Tesla Q2 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries
PALO ALTO, Calif., July 02, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the second quarter, we achieved record production of 87,048 vehicles and record deliveries of approximately 95,200 vehicles. In addition, we made significant progress streamlining our global logistics and delivery operations at higher volumes, enabling cost efficiencies and improvements to our working capital position.

Production Deliveries
Model S/X 14,517 17,650
Model 3 72,531 77,550
Total 87,048 95,200
Orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog. We believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3.

Customer vehicles in transit at the end of the quarter were over 7,400. Due to the order-to-VIN matching process we described in our Q1 2019 Shareholder Letter, which we extended to Model S and Model X in Q2 to improve process efficiency, this metric has become less relevant. As a result, we do not plan to disclose the customer vehicles in transit metric going forward.

 

[dk10438]

TSLA delivered 95k

 

[MP3Mike]

So M3 production isabout 5900 per week.

Edit for math issue

We normally allow for 1 week of downtime per quarter for maintenance/holidays/etc. Which puts it at 6,044/week.

 

[Chocochip]

Wait until CNBC and Bloomberg tell you why it isn't.

Yeah, that’s why the “so far” bit is there …

 

[EVMeister]

So record production/deliveries plus higher totals for Q3, how will the bears spin this?

F the bears.

 

[urarthur]

So...this is good news....right/S

no reason for celebration my arss

 

[canoemore]

Do folks expect good news nullification during trading tomorrow?

 

[Tslynk67]

Goddam wish these figures had come out before trading today...

 

[Sparky4life]

T
95.2k deliveries is a very nice beat!

I'm still SHOCKED that the stock is up...

 

[Bobbyducati]

ITS STILL GOING!!!