Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

I actually think the stock would tank after FSD is released. I think Elon explained what feature complete is, but he shouldn't have said anything about falling asleep by 2020. This sets the expectation of feature complete to be almost perfect with minor tweaking which is most likely very far from the truth. It'll be another one of those things TeslaQs will say how Elon is a liar and their autonomy features are unsafe and dead in the water. But I do see the system getting better way faster than people think(even though it seems like it takes forever!). When I had the EAP trial in mid 2018, I thought it was unstable and dangerous. After purchasing it during the FSD sale, EAP's ability is pretty much night and day.

And the thing is people take "easy tasks that anyone can do" for granted. As FSD accomplishes these "easy human tasks" one at a time, people would just roll their eyes and say "it's about time, how hard can it be to make a left turn in a busy intersection".

If I remember correctly, he said sleep by the *end* of 2020 in terms of technical capability, with regulatory approval sometime after that.

 

[Singuy]

If I remember correctly, he said sleep by the *end* of 2020 in terms of technical capability, with regulatory approval sometime after that.

I expect feature complete FSD to be a mess, like how NOA is a mess when there's heavy traffic, construction, and short distance lane changes. EAP was a total mess a year ago, can't even make basic sharp turns.

It's hard for people to imagine how it can go from a complete mess to falling asleep in a years time.

 

[kbM3]

Or we could just wear VR headsets that erase every person not on our white list from existence...

Slippery slope. For better or worse, society is, us.

We already know carpooling is not popular. Carpooling would be so much cheaper, reduce traffic, be more cost effective... The question is whether it’s too inconvenient, or is it that people don’t want to ride with strangers.

I don’t know the answer. If anyone does, I’m all ears?

Personally, I like to listen to my own music and so carpooling does not work for me.

 

[jerry33]

We already know carpooling is not popular. Carpooling would be so much cheaper, reduce traffic, be more cost effective... The question is whether it’s too inconvenient, or is it that people don’t want to ride with strangers.

I don’t know the answer. If anyone does, I’m all ears?

In this economy no one knows in advance if they will have mandatory overtime on a given day. Carpooling requires that people live and work very close to the same place, and that they have very consistent hours. Would have worked much better in the 1950s.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

This Tesla fan really thinks CNBC should go be fruitful and multiply with themselves.

All rights reversed, use freely, not a designer.

.
​

Paging @Webeevdrivers
SW Update enables the CHAdeMO adapter on Model 3...

 

[AlexS]

I wish to get ER date tomorrow

 

[mrmage]

I don’t see a reason why a dedicated robo-taxi could not have four separate partitionable compartments. One would still suffer the extra time spent delivering/picking up other passengers, but you would at least have an effectively private cabin and at a definitely reduced price.

People already ride share today in vans, buses, taxies, and uber today. If someone wants to ride share, they can opt for that at a lower price. Someone who wants their own car will pay a little more. Dividers aren't needed.

In this economy no one knows in advance if they will have mandatory overtime on a given day. Carpooling requires that people live and work very close to the same place, and that they have very consistent hours. Would have worked much better in the 1950s.

When the network receives ride sharing requests, it will optimize the pickups and dropoffs so that they're efficiently routed. Carpools in the traditional sense will be unnecessary. A simple vetting process can make ride sharing more pleasant.

 

[Thekiwi]

It's bad enough that TSLAQ and Tesla-hostile reporters pretend that Tesla "promised level 5 self-driving by the end of the year". But the fact that many Tesla bulls do the same thing is inexcusable. We need to push back against this false history every single time it's raised. The target is that the software be feature-complete by the end of the year, and then self-driving as regulatory approval is granted, which Musk expects to see at least somewhere in 2020 (when in 2020 was unspecified), but broadly after a couple years, broad approval requiring Tesla to prove a sufficient level of safety over manual driving, while Tesla continues to improve the hardware and software to "chase the 9s".



I agree that he annoys me with how he talks about it. How can he not have learned that every time he talks about appreciating cars or Tesla moving away from customer car sales that all he's achieving is scaring the market? For crying out loud, stop it. Talk about that once you've actually demonstrated some practical FSD, you're plausibly going to be getting regulatory approval in a meaningfully large market in the remotely near future, and a robotaxi customer market is starting to materialize.

Honestly, the whole concept of stopping selling consumer cars or hugely jacking up the price when robotaxis comes out makes no sense regardless. The cars cost the same to produce, and continue to earn solid margins. It makes much more sense to simply scale up production to track rates of robotaxi approval, which will vary greatly between markets. If you're worried about self-competition with your robotaxi programme, you either use legal or technical restrictions to prevent consumer cars from competing. Capital for scaleup will be no barrier if you have a legit robotaxi business; the bond markets will throw money at you. And Tesla can apparently build whole Gigafactories in China in just a year, so...

Excellent post.

Personally I’m somewhat annoyed that a lot of the bull talk/thesis for the stock is focused on FSD/Robotaxis these days. I much prefer to focus on Tesla simply being a great stock to own because it sells excellent cars in increasing volumes, with long term favorable margin advantages (and a nice Tesla energy side business).

Essentially I’m investing in this company because within 5 years I believe it will ship 1 million vehicles annually at an ASP near $50k with gross margin of 20%+. That equals $10 Billion of gross margin from the auto business alone. That is why I see it as a no brainer $100 Billion+ company, without any help from Uber-bullish FSD predictions.

IF Tesla pulls off FSD successfully, that I regard as the cherry on top of my investment, rather than the primary reason I’m investing in the company in the first place.

 

[Antares Nebula]

This was for Starlink last summer not the booster landings.
Only a minority of staff were demoted in the Autopilot team - it is mostly business as usual, but presumably with a few new whips and a larger neural net focus.
Elon's FSD targets do not contradict any known physical realities. FSD is a very difficult problem, exactly how difficult, nobody knows. Whether Tesla has the data and time to deliver feature complete this year, who knows, it seems challenging, but don't pretend you know exactly how difficult the problem is.

It's going to be epic!

Tesla FSD functionally complete --> Skynet self-aware

I hope everybody is ready. Stocks and money ain't gonna matter. Only food, water, and guns will have value!!

Hedge your bets against an AI apocalypse.

... paging Adam Jonas

 

[StealthP3D]

The FUD machine has succeeded in nerfing the rebate and HOV sticker program:

Used to be white stickers for fully zero emission, green for gas hybrids, got changed to both get red stickers so you can't tell them apart any more. On top of that white stickers expired without the right to reapply, kicking fully emission free vehicles older than 3 years old out of the HOV lane to make room for more gas hybrids.

The $2500 rebate you now get only when you are below bay area poverty line. As if to mock the situation they claim that the $60k household income limit would be 400% national household average income. For a california only incentive.

Whoever was working the lobby angle has been very successful.

It looks like California is the better part of the way to becoming predominately republican!

 

[Duffer]

Excellent post.

Personally I’m somewhat annoyed that a lot of the bull talk/thesis for the stock is focused on FSD/Robotaxis these days. I much prefer to focus on Tesla simply being a great stock to own because it sells excellent cars in increasing volumes, with long term favorable margin advantages (and a nice Tesla energy side business).

Essentially I’m investing in this company because within 5 years I believe it will ship 1 million vehicles annually at an ASP near $50k with gross margin of 20%+. That equals $10 Billion of gross margin from the auto business alone. That is why I see it as a no brainer $100 Billion+ company, without any help from Ube-bullish FSD predictions.

IF Tesla pulls off FSD successfully, that I regard as the cherry on top -of my investment, rather than the primary reason I’m investing in the company in the first place.

Agreed.

Multiple posts about Robotaxis for carpooling, how to partition the car for privacy and the ever popular FSD timeline debate do not address the current SP or more importantly what is Tesla doing in the short term (production, deliveries etc) that will aid in purchase decisions.

 

[abasile]

Legacy automakers lobbying CA state government officials? Okay.....I’ve heard almost everything now.

You doubt this? There's plenty of history here. Have you watched Who Killed the Electric Car? California's original EV mandate was essentially canned after much pushback from the legacy automakers, and lobbying continues.

From last year, for instance:
Automakers Oppose CA EV Mandate While Helping CARB States Meet It | News | Car and Driver

And more recently, in another state trying to follow California standards:
Auto industry group tries to talk Colorado out of a ZEV mandate - Roadshow

 

[EVNow]

This is not correct, you are basically trying to revise history and absolve elon of any responsibility to his statements. None of that is what Elon actually said.

Not just Musk - most of the auto majors have at some point said they will have FSD cars on roads by 2020.

BTW, I asked you earlier and you didn't answer. Do you work for a Tesla competitor ? If so, why are you not disclosing it ?

 

[Duffer]

It looks like California is the better part of the way to becoming predominately republican!

Nope. It just proves that the left is hypocritical when it comes to the environmental issues. All politicians primary concern is amassing wealth and power. IF the flow of cash into their pockets happens to align with what's good for the country/world/environment that's just a bonus.

 

[EVNow]

It just proves that the left is hypocritical when it comes to the environmental issues.

Not the "left" - just the establishment Dems.

ps : May be take the conversation to the politics thread before it gets too OT.

 

[1101011]

Really? A 168 mile, 2 door Mini Cooper for 36k? Why bother?

Well I had to take a look at the commotion caused by this Mini announcement, because I'd driven the gas version for a number of years before acquiring our 2014 Model S. Yes, getting a bit long in the tooth.

But like you- 168 miles? Ha-ha-ha.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Well I had to take a look at the commotion caused by this Mini announcement, because I'd driven the gas version for a number of years before acquiring our 2014 Model S. Yes, getting a bit long in the tooth.

But like you- 168 miles? Ha-ha-ha.

The Mini was the most fun car I’d ever driven before I discovered Tesla. I’ve been wanting an electric Mini for years, but this version is weak sauce— which, sadly, is exactly what I expected from BMW.

I’ll test drive one when it becomes available. It’ll never replace my 3, but it could replace the Leaf I’ve got for dirty jobs around town. What’s worse than the range is the 0-60; not just slower than the Cooper S I used to have, but slower than the Bolt.

 

[TNEVol]

You don’t buy golden-egg-laying chicken just to eat the meat, also you wouldn’t be able to buy them at the same price as ordinary chicken.
(Sorry for offending vegans, but this is the best analogy I can think of right now)

That's exactly what we did. We bought the M3 for Fsd but never intend to rent it out. The M3 Fsd is a hedge against our inability to safely drive due to advancing age. I only want the car to be able to transport us safely where we want to go. You have your world to make money whereas mine is to enjoy life and the freedom to come and go completely as I wish. Please recognize that my view is likely shared by millions of retired people who can afford new Teslas. We also drove over 45K miles last year because of Tesla as driving is fun again. I think that if people are honest most would admit that their car purchases have not been based on TCO but upon emotion and intangibles. I can admit that I never considered TCO in a car purchase including my P85 but I have been honest when asked if the savings offset the price and said no way. As an investor I hope you are correct on acceptance of Fsd Nd regulatory approval. However I am skeptical.

 

[Beltsbear]

Well I had to take a look at the commotion caused by this Mini announcement, because I'd driven the gas version for a number of years before acquiring our 2014 Model S. Yes, getting a bit long in the tooth.

But like you- 168 miles? Ha-ha-ha.

Really is a bad joke at that price. Get a model 3 or a Nissan Leaf. No room for a 168 mille range car at that price in 2020 when there are three cars over 200 miles for the same price.

 

[KarenRei]

So, for now, let's keep this in the "rumourmill" category... but...

LiveSquawk on Twitter

If true... restoring S/X shifts? Raven surely queued up a big batch of orders while they were working to ramp its new hardware.