Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

Ah... so the unsubstantiated, hand waving claim about parking lots being more difficult. Yeah, sounds like an academic rather than an engineer. Academics are important and can have significant insights, but the problem space is somewhat orthogonal. Navigating a parking lot is not the same as driving on roads -- there are entirely different constraints. And saying it is inversely proportional to speed is silly in a "makes sense if you only consider it superficially" sorta way. There's nothing inherent about driving 80mph that makes the problem "less complex", but because of the realities of response time, braking distance, etc., for safety roads are engineered to have less complexity when they are designed for high speed.

But lets say he is correct about the relationship where complexity is inversely proportional, it only accounts for the overlap and says absolutely nothing about the difficulty in improvement. Nor does complexity necessarily tell you anything about the difficulty. That's like saying the average is comparable to the standard deviation.

In the end, just silly hand waving.

[edited to add: just as a point about difficulty vs complexity: making a turn is certainly not difficult, its a matter of controlling the steering wheel angle. Greater speed increases the uncertainty of future states with the same time delta -- that makes it more difficult to achieve high accuracy predictions. Which, in turn, are necessary to determine what the steering wheel angle should be. While momentum helps with improving trajectory plots there are limits (e.g., braking, acceleration, too sharp of a turn causing instability, etc.) that doesn't help with pothole detection and avoidance, curve maintenance, etc.]

The inverse speed to complexity relationship is probably something like this: the reason you are going so slow is that the number and variation of things that could happen is so high. If you could be 100% certain you weren't gonna have shopping carts pop out of nowhere or kids running around in a parking lot you could drive around at 30mph (or 70mph really). But you can't safely make that assumption. The speed is not the cause of the complexity, it is the symptom of the complex driving task.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Not just TSLA. Macros collapsed in last hour. MAGA* stocks all did the same plonk (including after-hrs)

View attachment 430842
* plus, MFST AAPL GOOGL AMZN

Yup. Relative to NFLX, TSLA is up almost 12% after hours.

 

[mrmage]

As to the reason of why you changed your mind:

1. What specific line item are you correcting? You won't say.
2. What are you giving back? Based on the (public) evidence that changed your mind, you've refused to give anything but a change of opinion.
3. You haven't told us anything to be able to say "I told you so," other than change your mind and refuse to state why.

To me your comments are akin to putting the mechanical rabbit (your supposed FSD revelations) out in front greyhound racers (TMC community) and saying you know how to catch it but no one else can. It's an unnecessary tease.

Not meant to be a tease, more like validation for anyone who's inclined to believe EM but wants someone to say it's possible. As for the others:

1. Correcting my past posts about the timeline for robotaxies, based on the difficulty. I still think it's difficult, but surmountable.
2. Some people think EM is right, most don't. For those who do, I confirm there is a path based on what I know.
3. Just setting a stake in the ground with this post for the future.

 

[Duffer]

Tesla Cat Club ... count me in!

<--- This "cat club" thing needs to be nipped in the bu** err I mean bud.

$253.41 close isn't half bad considering yesterday's news and the pending EC.

 

[sparcs]

Yup. Relative to NFLX, TSLA is up almost 12% after hours.

Let's wait until 7/24 before we start making netflix comparisons

 

[HG Wells]

I think FSD progress has been stalled mainly due to regulatory issues for AKNET_V9 style networks on HW3. Once that happens in in Q4 2019 I expect we will see Autonomy-day-like performance for everyone with FSD.

.

AKNET_V9 ?

Arc net ?
Dear god, not Arc net !

I still have some of those boards in the basement from the mid 1980's.

Dam, If this is true im going to short the stock.

 

[Green Pete]

I'm new to checking TeslaFi, but I have noticed over the last couple of weeks there have been 5-6 very low volume software releases. Right now alone there are 5 releases that in my perception are newer than the "mass release" versions. This I am guessing is because there are testing multiple release candidates for AP upgrades. I was just curious if this was normal. In the 3 months I've been following the firmware release records it seems very abnormal.

 

[Tslynk67]

Indeed. There's now hope that Bob Lutz will one day be able to control a computer with his brain!

I think a monkey controlling Bob wold be the best result.

 

[Cherry Wine]

NFLX is having its "TSLA Q1 '19 P&D Report" moment, apparently.

 

[kengchang]

<--- This "cat club" thing needs to be nipped in the bu** err I mean bud.

$253.41 close isn't half bad considering yesterday's news and the pending EC.

Will take any green than red

 

[Cherry Wine]

<--- This "cat club" thing needs to be nipped in the bu** err I mean bud.

$253.41 close isn't half bad considering yesterday's news and the pending EC.

Yay for dog avatars. Actual close was $254.86, I believe. It's just fallen a bit more AH.

 

[capster]

...

Excluding regulatory issues, I'm now confident that safe autonomy and/or a robotaxi service will be ready in the next year or two, pretty much along Elon Musk's time frame or perhaps a year longer. I have about 80% conviction in this. More importantly, I'm pretty sure of the reasons for EM being so confident about this, to the point of being smug.
...
The bad news: I can't share details. So why post this at all?
...
3. "I told you so" rights

...

I told you so.

 

[MP3Mike]

I used public information to arrive at my conclusion, but haven't seen anyone else figure it out. I'm almost positive that Tesla has, and if so, EM has good reason for not revealing it. So I won't either, because it's detrimental to Tesla.

How is something that shows that Tesla is going to meet Elon's estimate of FSD being feature complete by the end of the year detrimental to Tesla?

Edit: Maybe you think Elon is going to sacrifice himself by Neuralinking himself to Dojo and that he will control all Tesla vehicles remotely enabling FSD and the RoboTaxi fleet?

 

[willow_hiller]

How is something that shows that Tesla is going to meet Elon's estimate of FSD being feature complete by the end of the year detrimental to Tesla?

This is what I don't understand most out of that cryptic message. What does Tesla have to gain by hiding their progress? Surely if they had more to show, it would have been hugely beneficial to show it at the Investor Autonomy Day.

 

[Off Shore]

Not meant to be a tease, more like validation for anyone who's inclined to believe EM but wants someone to say it's possible. As for the others:

1. Correcting my past posts about the timeline for robotaxies, based on the difficulty. I still think it's difficult, but surmountable.
2. Some people think EM is right, most don't. For those who do, I confirm there is a path based on what I know.
3. Just setting a stake in the ground with this post for the future.

Write it out, encrypt it with PGP, and post it on TMC (NOT in this thread, please!) Otherwise people will continue to ridicule you.

 

[Dutchie]

Elon looks fine from yesterday's streaming

He had his hair dyed.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The french word for cat is chat. That doesn't mean this thread has to became a chatbox. Killed some posts on cats (and dogs) and that will be the fate of any more of those. Any more Bob Lutz jokes will suffer the same fate.

 

[mrmage]

Write it out, encrypt it with PGP, and post it on TMC (NOT in this thread, please!) Otherwise people will continue to ridicule you.

I don't mind the ridicule, but this is a good idea nonetheless. Will do in the next couple days.

 

[Off Shore]

I don't mind the ridicule

I do; it wastes bandwidth. Thanks!

 

[Mike Smith]

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