Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Egads, the ARK Summit begins a half hour before the regular market close leading into the earnings report of their #1 holding, Tesla. But far more importantly and discombobulating, the Cub-Giant baseball game begins a quarter hour before the market close.

Cubs win! All is good.

 

[neroden]

I should note that the net loss is lower than the depreciation & amortization total; so the positive cash flow is NOT just due to inventory / accounts receivable / accounts payable timing; it's due to prepaid expenses. This means the positive cash flow WILL continue (until they have to write off or replace equipment, at least).

...actually, net loss minus stock-based compensation (which will never be a cash cost) is under 200K, while depreciation is 578K. It would be better if they were producing *slightly* more cars, maybe 2500 more per quarter, so that net loss minus stock-based compensation was always positive. They'll be there very soon.
----

Emphasis by Zach that the capital expenses are lower this quarter NOT for one-time reasons, but SUSTAINABLY. This is a big deal.

He believes they've broken through the "fixed cost barrier" where volume is high enough to cover the fixed costs consistently. (This is the big issue for any economies of scale business.)

 

[KSilver2000]

BS. "Trading shares" are nothing more than a justification for a gambling instinct. You will never, in the long run, beat buying and holding.

Depends on the stock as well as your definition of "long". I started investing in Tesla in 2015. My short term trades have been paying our Tesla loan payments. My core long-term play....well, like I've been saying, a CD or index fund would've done better.
But many of my other stocks have not been the same phenomenon.

 

[Thekiwi]

They dont hedge currency? Worth keeping eye on DXY from now on

 

[thait84]

JB is transitioning to an advisor role~!

 

[SpaceCash]

Straubel taking a backseat, becoming an advisor no longer CTO

 

[Drumheller]

JB leaving

 

[neroden]

Ouch! They lost J.B. :-( He'll still give advice, but he's no longer handling day-to-day things.

NOW the stock has a reason to drop.

...OK, JB is "on call", basically. I think he got tired of the punishing pace and wanted to do something else, but if they need his advice, he'll always answer. Drew is taking over the day-to-day.

 

[Causalien]

JB leaving

OUCH.

I am reminded of so many people who said they'd get out if JB leave.

 

[Cherry Wine]

RIP.

 

[pz1975]

I was going to post on here earlier today my prediction JB was leaving and they would announce it today. I know that sounds fishy but it’s true.

 

[DocZ]

Yikes. Scariest news to date. JB leaving....big big deal.

 

[elasalle]

JB is transitioning to an advisor role~!

*UCK

+From beginning of call - EM voice was so nervous

 

[EVNow]

Ouch! They lost J.B. :-( He'll still give advice, but he's no longer handling day-to-day things.

NOW the stock has a reason to drop.

I don't think he was doing much day-to-day last few months, anyway.

When they announced Deepak leaving after Q4, SP temporarily when down $15. Now its down $5 ($240 to $235).

 

[Fact Checking]

Emphasis by Zach that the capital expenses are lower this quarter NOT for one-time reasons, but SUSTAINABLY. This is a big deal.

Yep, Model 3 expansion is beginning to be fully paid for - the $249m capex this quarter was very low already, probably mostly China and service & SC expansion related.

There's also this tidbit in the update letter:

"Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5 to $2.0 billion, a reduction from prior guidance."​

Grohmann acquisition starting to pay off big time.

​

 

[Drumheller]

OUCH.

I am reminded of so many people who said they'd get out if JB leave.

I remember that, as well. This is a big loss, in my opinion. I won't be surprised to see the stock price take a beating on this news.

 

[aubreymcfato]

JB is explaining a bit.
He doesn't seem concerned: could he be just tired?

 

[Johann Koeber]

Really sad that JB is leaving

Hope we hear more from him in other roles.

 

[Causalien]

JB is explaining a bit.
He doesn't seem concerned: could he be just tired?

Probably. Even I am tired.

But we all know the media short storm that is coming.

 

[Joe F]

Well that didn't do the SP any good.