Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dmckinstry]

Uh yes, if this forum thinks spending 80+k on a car is a common thing then perhaps look at a typical persons average salary and debt load. Most banks wouldn't even approve over 90% of the US population on such a car.

I'm in that category. The only new car I'd ever purchased was a 2005 Prius. The only reason I could afford the Model S was by selling about a thousand shares of TSLA at about $94/share. Got every option, except performance and the sound upgrade. My hearing (above 2kHz) is so poor it wouldn't have done me any good.

 

[Freder Reeve]

Agree. That said, I wish they would do something to explain that to people.
For example, a small fun video like the one they just released about Chess game but on the Raven update would go a long way to get people excited again. I mean that was a damn big improvement, yet people still asking when S & X will be updated ...

They really are still out there waiting. It makes perfect sense to make an advert for S/X, especially with S recently named Motor Trend car of all cars in the history of cars.
Obviously don't need to advertise the 3, but no reason not to celebrate S and X as they are right now with a little reminder to the regular tv watching folk out there.
Poor saps probably don't even realize the actor from their favorite movies and the new jeep commercial actually drives a model S.

 

[keydiver]

Elon is on Twitter again...Does he want to push the stock?

I figured out a long time ago that Elon is NEVER pumping the stock, no matter how many times the TSLAQ trolls say it. You need to totally detach his Twitter comments from the stock price, as he just doesn't care. I think of Elon on Twitter as more like a doting father who can't wait to tell others about the funny thing his toddler just did, or tease photos of them doing something that he finds incredible.

 

[Todd Burch]

2. Because the aviation industry has been around for much longer than Tesla, the deaths per passenger miles flown is much lower than deaths per miles driven in a Tesla. But, as with any statistics, you can always find a statistic to justify your claim regardless of position.

This has nothing to do with the aviation industry being around longer than Tesla. Commercial aviation is much, much, much safer than driving in general. Mercedes has been around longer than the commercial aviation industry, yet many many many more deaths per mile occur in Mercedes vehicles than in passenger airplanes.

 

[Singuy]

Did you already forget about all the homes that were foreclosed because somebody gave those people mortgages for homes they couldn’t actually afford?

Have you looked up national credit card debt?

Have you never seen a homeless person walking around with the latest and greatest iPhone?

People notoriously make bad financial and/or bad purchasing choices. That’s not actually what’s going on here with people upgrading from beaters or basic utility vehicles to Teslas.

Two DIFFERENT situations.

I’ve driven used/beaters pretty much my whole driving life until Tesla. Not because I couldn’t have afforded more expensive or new cars, but because I wanted to spend my money on something else or save it for something else, and having a ‘nice’ car wasn’t a priority or necessity or a care. My vehicles needed to be reliable and functional. I got those for bare bones costs because (read above). Now I’ll buy only Teslas because no emissions, because home fueling, because inexpensive long distance travel, because functionality, because reliability, because every possible reason anyone can come up with. Good thing I made wise choices with my money over the years, eh?

Okay you guys really need to stop using your own anecdote to explain the generalize the average American. The average American are not Tesla shareholders who have enough money to throw in a highly volatile stock and are willing to lose such money. All your guys are secret millionaire Honda Civic owners...I know. I'm one of them too. My wife and my income were combined to be 350k but I drove a beat up 160k mile Celica while my wife was in a 180k mile Honda Civic. We are now Tesla owners.

But we are definitely NOT the typical American. Like I said, we are very rare. I teach a financial class and know exactly how rare we are.

 

[Krugerrand]

You went from people are notorious for making bad financial decisions to "but people who buy Tesla's are not those people"? Is that what you were saying?

You changed the subject. Your claim was that cars are appliances people couldn’t change their view about cars or driving. People gave you real life information that said that thought process was wrong. Then you turned it into we’re all secret millionaires here.

I’m going for a drive in my Tesla, that I can afford even though I’ve never paid more than $12kish for any previous vehicle BECAUSE cars used to be just appliances to me, just because I feel like blasting music and don’t want to disturb my neighbors on an early Sunday morning. I have never chosen to do that before because cars were to get from point A to B, not be a personal sound theatre.

 

[RFernatt]

My LR AWD 3 was the most expensive car I had ever purchased and I thought 30K was a lot for an ICE. I would never have set foot in a BMW, MB, Audi, Lexus dealership. Heck, even Toyota was too expensive so we generally went with Nissan or Kia. Not that we couldn't afford more expensive vehicles, but nothing was interesting enough to make it worthwhile. Status cars don't mean much to me - I don't really care what the neighbors think, but there needs to be substance and good fuel economy. On that note, I have a neighbor that has two MBs and they are always parked outside even though they have a 2 car garage like it's a statement. No one ever sees my Tesla unless I'm driving it as it is always garaged. I had a neighbor kid notice it in the garage one evening while I had the door up when cutting grass and he was like "whoa, when did you get a Tesla?" and I told him 8 months ago.

Honestly, I still struggled a bit in my head with parting with so much for a car, especially a sedan, but paid cash for the Tesla because it was the only practical long range EV, free fuel from solar system, technology, etc. Kept my Leaf for around town driving and Sams runs.

This group will probably find it hilarious, but my favorite car up until the Tesla that I enjoyed, modified and drove all over the country to meet other owners was a smart fortwo coupe.

 

[Krugerrand]

This group will probably find it hilarious, but my favorite car up until the Tesla that I enjoyed, modified and drove all over the country to meet other owners was a smart fortwo coupe.

Totally believable. I loved my minivans over the years. They just worked for me and my life. When I finally got one with TWO sliding doors, omg!!! Heaven.

The Model Y will takeover for that vehicle type. I can hardly wait.

 

[Sancho]

Before the results of this quarter I could fathom the rational investment case as to why Tesla, a serial disruptor of the largest revenue generating consumer category, would only be worth $40 billion: because Tesla’s large potential value needs to be substantially discounted by the possibility of failure.

But now it should become apparent to the rational investor that Tesla is self funding, without evident restraints on substantial growth.

Even most rational investors don’t come to their senses overnight. It may take time for the SP to correct. But you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Perhaps you don't know how this reply chain started. The original top was my defense for why Elon's desirability statement. I said it's more than just economic of supply/demand. It's because too many are into the mission but can't afford a 60-90k car so people are putting themselves into hardship trading up.

But the argument here is no no, the mission is secondary. People are willing to spend 50-100k on a car because the car is too good....uhhh yeah all of a sudden Honda Civic buyers are all car enthusiast secret millionaires just waiting for the right car all their lives...

ah, ok. I guess some context was lost along the way. I’d still say the “car enthusiast” portion of that isn’t necessary, given the step-change in moving to Tesla. Could be that people like me are moving to Model 3 rather than S, though.

 

[KarenRei]

Cocoa Beach is for seeing Falcon landings. The 200m jaunt is Starship hopper at Boca Chica Texas.

** Cocoa, not Cocoa Beach

(Everyone makes this mistake. I used to, too ) Cocoa is also building Starships, although it's not sure yet what will be the future balance - either Boca Chica, Cocoa, or both.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

HaHaHa,

Nothing better than sowing a little controversy. TBH I don't think there is real connection between his statements and the timing of his statements timing after the share drop, but you never know. He is a smart cookie and probably cunning too.

I do stand by my statement that I wish he be quiet about when to expect what kind of improvement to the software. We all have been disappointed in the past with his timeline.

Timeline? Sure. Features? No. As someone who just got his car back from service with fixed autopilot cameras, current Navigate on Autopilot is flat-out amazing. My car quite literally drives itself on the freeway. Add in sentry mode, dog mode, various games, etc, and I’m about as far from “disappointed” as you can be.

Besides, he addressed late timelines *in the tweet you got September from*.

 

[neroden]

OT

Okay you guys really need to stop using your own anecdote to explain the generalize the average American. The average American are not Tesla shareholders who have enough money to throw in a highly volatile stock and are willing to lose such money. All your guys are secret millionaire Honda Civic owners...I know. I'm one of them too. My wife and my income were combined to be 350k but I drove a beat up 160k mile Celica while my wife was in a 180k mile Honda Civic. We are now Tesla owners.

But we are definitely NOT the typical American. Like I said, we are very rare. I teach a financial class and know exactly how rare we are.

Yeah, I knew I was a secret-millionaire (as in, don't spend money on conspicuous consumption, but have money) type. I've been very curious as to how many of us there are, though. You know exactly how rare we are: can you link statistics?

 

[Remus]

The 200m altitude hop test of Starship, planned next week in broad daylight, live streamed by multiple YouTubers with their own cameras on site, is going to be really hard to explain away by the conspiracy theorists.

Of course it's easy, remember the moon landing? monitored by the whole freaking world including the Soviet

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The difference between a $20K ICE car and a $50K ICE car is mainly modest performance and feature upgrades. The difference between a $20K ICE car a $50K Tesla is a step function between the past and the future. It's a completely different way of thinking about what personal transportation can be - no more gas stations, charging at home, much better performance, and far lower maintenance.

 

[Pezpunk]

Okay you guys really need to stop using your own anecdote to explain the generalize the average American. The average American are not Tesla shareholders who have enough money to throw in a highly volatile stock and are willing to lose such money. All your guys are secret millionaire Honda Civic owners...I know. I'm one of them too. My wife and my income were combined to be 350k but I drove a beat up 160k mile Celica while my wife was in a 180k mile Honda Civic. We are now Tesla owners.

But we are definitely NOT the typical American. Like I said, we are very rare. I teach a financial class and know exactly how rare we are.

*tells forum members not to generalize others based on their own situation*
(one sentence later)
*declares everyone on the forum is just like him and his wife*

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Of course it's easy, remember the moon landing? monitored by the whole freaking world including the Soviet

I mean, they manage to explain away the earth being round so...

 

[Singuy]

*tells forum members not to generalize others based on their own situation*
(one sentence later)
*declares everyone on the forum is just like him and his wife*

You mean how most here are Tesla shareholders and Tesla owners? Not a very far stretch considering this is the Tesla Motor Club in an investor thread.

 

[jbcarioca]

I think this is one of many reasons for the weaker S/X demand this year, including:

• ...

.

This reasoning explains most of the broader market increase in Model 3 demand but only part of Model S weakness. From several years of observation and periodic analysis when data has been accessible I think there is another factor which may be more significant in GM terms but less so in absolute volume.

A substantial percentage of "P" version sales during 2013-2018 were to people who had substantial financial resources and chose Tesla for the stellar performance more than for environmental or other motivations. Obviously to those who know me, my past exotic car penchants put me in this category, so I risk 'mother-in-law research' but still believe my observations are valid. Once there was a P3D+ all the excitement was available at much smaller footprint; all else equal most high performance drivers prefer the smallest packaging that can deliver the desired results. Initially the P3D+ was priced to more or less match comparably equipped BMW M, Mercedes AMG and Porsche 918, among others. People who accepted the larger car to get the performance now neally can get it for much less than those vehicles.

In essence Tesla knowingly, intentionally reduced P3D prices to expand the market and attract 'pocket rocket' buyers.
In my opinion quite a substantial part of S GM deterioration has been cased by that phenomenon. FWIW I paid $79,000 for mine and thought it was a bargain. I still do.

When/if Model S and X have been updated to deliver substantially greater satisfaction, by much greater battery capacity and high speed continuous operation the EU sales and NA also will be reinvigorated. Until that happens they'll still be challenged. German sales have very high potential but will not happen until high speed long distance travel is delivered.All the analysis so far seems to think in terms of price comparisons. This performance categories do not work that way in any reliable way. Price matters but the best performance delivered reliably produces highly elastic pricing.

Lastly selling luxury products on price assures diminished positioning. Brand management 301, people.

 

[Curt Renz]

ARK Invest - this morning:

Mod: attachment deleted. Don't post entire copyrighted materials, it's against the law and the terms of service. You can put in a link if one is available. --ggr.