Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

The uptick rule is over-rated, it has very little effectiveness except in flash crashes. Oh, I think the big money manipulators are trying today, but they encountered stronger buy pressure than anticipated. They will likely be forced to let the SP find a new (higher) level. This game is getting expensive for them.

Not the usual short selling. Only 2 times we had over 100k/minute volume today - one of them the first minute and then one that pushed SP up by $2.

 

[22522]

This ability to attract talent is real: TSLA critic and 'Shark Tank' judge Kevin O'Leary reverses course, buys Tesla stock

Not sure JB liked the churn...

 

[AlexS]

Ark buys more of this really good and not manipulated stock
View attachment 434117

Today's trades at ARK Invest:

View attachment 434547

Encouraging sign, thanks Curt and Anthony for information

 

[JRP3]

Are you suggesting that the tenant or landlord pays associated costs to have a 240 charger installed?

An outlet is not a charger. Cost should be minimal.

 

[CyberDutchie]

ahh yes lowered delivery estimate from 347K to 345K, no not a joke. But hey everyone can run the headline MS lowered estimate on Tesla.

Yes. Looks like an adjustment to generate a headline:

Deliveries. We decrease our FY19 delivery estimate by ~2k units to 345k units, still below the low end of Tesla’s 360k to 400k unit full year guide. Our 3Q19 delivery forecast of 91k units (74,750 Model 3, 7,914 Model X and 8,682 Model S) compares to a record second quarter of 95,200. We believe the step down in the US EV tax credit at the end of last month may have pulled forward some demand into the second quarter. We have kept S/X volumes stable sequentially, with our FY forecast coming out to approximately 63k units, a material step down from just below 100k units last year. We continue to be of the opinion a material enhancement to both the S and the X would materially bolster demand for these vehicles (we do note Elon Musk tweeted they will not "refresh" the S or X, only implement small changes).

 

[mongo]

Yes. Looks like an adjustment to generate a headline:

Deliveries. We decrease our FY19 delivery estimate by ~2k units to 345k units, still below the low end of Tesla’s 360k to 400k unit full year guide. Our 3Q19 delivery forecast of 91k units (74,750 Model 3, 7,914 Model X and 8,682 Model S) compares to a record second quarter of 95,200. We believe the step down in the US EV tax credit at the end of last month may have pulled forward some demand into the second quarter. We have kept S/X volumes stable sequentially, with our FY forecast coming out to approximately 63k units, a material step down from just below 100k units last year. We continue to be of the opinion a material enhancement to both the S and the X would materially bolster demand for these vehicles (we do note Elon Musk tweeted they will not "refresh" the S or X, only implement small changes).

Sure, the $1,875 decrease from Q2 to Q3 pulled sales forward, but the $1,875 decrease from Q4 19 to Q1 2020 will not???

 

[CyberDutchie]

Where have we heard this before?

One of the key questions for Tesla bulls and bears in 2019 still remains: Can the company fund its growth ambitions without the need for external capital? Although Tesla stated in their earnings release "we believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding," we left the Q2 earnings call grappling with many of the key vectors that help answer this question, such as longer term gross margin assumptions, capital needs of the business, operating leverage, and demand across geographies. While we believe Tesla may have subdued some demand concerns in the near term with strong Q2 deliveries and reiterated FY guidance, we believe they heightened the questions around profitability, that we have discussed in previous reports.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Sure, the $1,875 decrease from Q2 to Q3 pulled sales forward, but the $1,875 decrease from Q4 19 to Q1 2020 will not???

He will save that for when the time is right to lower his Q1 forecast by 2K units also

 

[mongo]

He will save that for when the time is right to lower his Q1 forecast by 2K units also

Yah, because who could have forseen the tax credit being reduced. Totally out of the blue and impossible to model ahead of time.
My mind is boggled.

 

[Gwgan]

10Q: “Also included within restructuring and other activities was $56.1 million of expenses (materially all of which were non-cash) from restructuring the energy generation and storage segment, which were comprised of disposals of certain tangible assets, the shortening of the useful life of a trade name intangible asset and a contract termination penalty”
Got more details? Maybe some of these were Maxwell related as they said elsewhere “In April 2019, the Company determined to abandon further development efforts on the IPR&D and therefore impaired the remaining $47.0 million in the quarter ended June 30, 2019, in restructuring and other expenses.” Who’s contract terminated?

 

[ReflexFunds]

10Q: “Also included within restructuring and other activities was $56.1 million of expenses (materially all of which were non-cash) from restructuring the energy generation and storage segment, which were comprised of disposals of certain tangible assets, the shortening of the useful life of a trade name intangible asset and a contract termination penalty”
Got more details? Maybe some of these were Maxwell related as they said elsewhere “In April 2019, the Company determined to abandon further development efforts on the IPR&D and therefore impaired the remaining $47.0 million in the quarter ended June 30, 2019, in restructuring and other expenses.” Who’s contract terminated?

This was final writedown of the Silevo solar tech business.

 

[PaulRocket]

My predictions for the next 12-18 months:
Q3 2019
Fremont: 7.5k/week
GF3: /

Q4 2019
Fremont: 9k/week
GF3: 0.5k/week

Q1 2020
Fremont: 9k/week
GF3: 1.5k/week

Q2 2020
Fremont: 9k/week
GF3: 3k/week

Q3 2020
Fremont: 10k/week
GF3: 3.5k/week

Q4 2020
Fremont: 11k/week
GF3: 4k/week

2019 production: 373,000 +52% YoY
2020 production: 592,000 +58.7% YoY

 

[SOULPEDL]

Where in the original post said anything about a 35k car? He said S,X at 100k.

Nowhere, but we are talking car costs.
You realize why I mention the $35K right?

 

[schonelucht]

• Likely to approach $7 billion by end of year to become among the least leveraged companies relative to EBITDA.

How do you see net debt approaching $7B by end of year?

 

[shrspeedblade]

Looking at today's price action, to voice my hunch I think whoever was steadily acquiring over the last several months is taking advantage of the sale price right now.(+1.41%)

I'm just not sure if it's mainly a couple of big investors or just a whole lot of small ones! Any guesses?

Edit: 4.6 million shares in first 3 hours, that seems to indicate some muscle.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

Nice movement, maybe we say good bye to 230?

 

[anthonyj]

Looking at today's price action, to voice my hunch I think whoever was steadily acquiring over the last several months is taking advantage of the sale price right now.(+1.41%)

I'm just not sure if it's mainly a couple of big investors or just a whole lot of small ones! Any guesses?

Edit: 4.6 million shares in first 3 hours, that seems to indicate some muscle.

Pretty obvious and I’ve been pointing this out for a while. The stock price is an illusion, it is the best discount ever, some large entities are getting in for sure. This is a better price than when Larry Ellison or Saudis purchased. If you click buy then your IQ is higher than theirs

 

[Sunlight]

Looking at today's price action, to voice my hunch I think whoever was steadily acquiring over the last several months is taking advantage of the sale price right now.(+1.41%)

I'm just not sure if it's mainly a couple of big investors or just a whole lot of small ones! Any guesses?

Edit: 4.6 million shares in first 3 hours, that seems to indicate some muscle.

Well if it is small ones count me in as a 'tiny one buying the dip'!

Despite the mad volatility I have done OK with Tesla shares - only one batch under water @$288; the rest - 105; 210; and two at about the current value.

And when I had to sell a bunch fortuitously it was at $355 (sold at $355 bought back at $230 - nice...)

Good luck and fortitude to the other longs!

 

[shrspeedblade]

Pretty obvious and I’ve been pointing this out for a while. The stock price is an illusion, it is the best discount ever, some large entities are getting in for sure. This is a better price than when Larry Ellison or Saudis purchased. If you click buy then your IQ is higher than theirs

I've been noting your posts lately, that one about warning that "they want your shares" was timely. Thanks.

 

[Nocturnal]

Looking at today's price action, to voice my hunch I think whoever was steadily acquiring over the last several months is taking advantage of the sale price right now.(+1.41%)

I'm just not sure if it's mainly a couple of big investors or just a whole lot of small ones! Any guesses?

Edit: 4.6 million shares in first 3 hours, that seems to indicate some muscle.

Are there any small investors with any money left?