Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ford could be bankrupted if F-150 sales fall just 20-30% - as i say, operating leverage kills autos companies.

I also have so much more confidence in the Tesla pickup not only beating Ford's EV Pickup to market, but greatly beating the Ford EV Pickup to market in volume. Ford simply doesn't have any investments in place to build a EV pickup, NOTHING! They don't really have the money to try and build up their EV manufacturing in record time to beat Tesla's Pickup to market in volume.

This is without acknowledging that Elon has said the target price point for the Tesla pickup is under 49k. That's a serious blow to Ford. Tesla doesn't want to "play along" with the notion of price gauging the pickup space with heavy margins/profits.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't see that happening. Tesla couldn't possibly scale fast enough to put more than a dent in Ford truck sales. F series alone is like 900k a year, plus GM and Dodge sell nearly that. How long until Tesla could produce a million trucks a year?​

I can see it happening. Tesla doesn’t have to be selling that many pickups to kill Ford, GM and Dodge. Tesla only has to make enough trucks to reduce the others’ sales enough that they aren’t making money.

Remember, single digit percentage of sale reductions put GM into bankruptcy.

I don’t know what the number is that’s going to start the OEM truck snowball to hell, but it’s not nearly as high as you think. We may get some indication when 3 and Y hit their full strides.

 

[StealthP3D]

Slow your roll there, Stealth. Hard to find a bigger Musk fan than me. I acknowledge that he is the man, and I also acknowledge that the whole twitter deal is ridiculous. Did I attack Musk? Since he is the primary reason for the success of Tesla, FUD or an SEC press release based on this latest production tweet...well everyone here knows the possible effects. Just trying to play the game as you say. Notice I referenced my trading shares.

Also don't be so absolute as to how and when people lose money with their trades. Lots of ways to trade stocks nowadays, as I am sure you know. But if you want to attack anyone that doesn't 100% toe your party line (whatever the hell that is...telling me to start my own auto company...seriously save that for the enemy) then go ahead. I can take it.

My point is, it's pretty silly to blame your woes on the man that's out there on the front line making it all happen. And, don't worry, I tell everyone who thinks they could do it better to start their own auto company. Or invest in the competition. Because I think the peanut gallery antics are silly. Nothing personal, just my take.

 

[EVNow]

Is $40,000 the anticipated cost of the tiles or the installed roof? And aren't they installed by contractors, not by Tesla?

I tried searching for the avg cost. Most places are showing much more than $40k. Tesla quotes $50k for my house (~3k sq ft) with 50% solar. Traditional roof would be $9.5k according to them. There is $12k tax credit, so net cost is ~40k.

Now, if I pay Tesla the full amount and Tesla pays the contractors, I'd guess the full $50k is revenue for Tesla. Ofcourse they will have lower margin this way than charging just for the roof and showing lower revenue.

 

[Freder Reeve]

I suspect Ford will wait until the day before or day of Tesla's pickup reveal to announce their new electrified Ford Lightning pickup. Their loyal base will eat that revamped old favorite right up, especially with The Rock driving it vengefully fast to save the innocent in __(Action Film)__.

 

[Fact Checking]

It's right here:

What’s Going on at BMW? Many Future/Current Cars Are Being Axed

Wow, what a find:

"Like Audi and Mercedes, BMW is struggling to make money on cars that retail at less than €40,000, and roughly the same amount in U.S. currency. The rear-wheel-drive 1 Series, the 2 Series, and lower-trim 3 Series variants contribute very little if anything at all to the bottom line, and the company has established a list of doomed models. "​

I don't think I've seen this leaked before. If true then Tesla is hurting BMW, Daimler and Audi big time.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I tried searching for the avg cost. Most places are showing much more than $40k. Tesla quotes $50k for my house (~3k sq ft) with 50% solar. Traditional roof would be $9.5k according to them. There is $12k tax credit, so net cost is ~40k.

Now, if I pay Tesla the full amount and Tesla pays the contractors, I'd guess the full $50k is revenue for Tesla. Ofcourse they will have lower margin this way than charging just for the roof and showing lower revenue.

I would presume this would all be done in-house. It will require specific training to install the Tesla roof and Tesla will want to control and continuously optimise the process. The installation process is one of the main technical challenges that Tesla is trying to solve.

 

[trentbridge]

I suspect the average pickup owner is much better than the stereotypical ones that get all the attention.

When NASCAR runs an all electric vehicle series like Formula E we will know that Tesla has arrived...in the heartland. I remember when Toyota first began competing and they were greeted with a haughty disdain...and now, nobody cares...

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

I bought shares of Canadian-based fuel-cell maker Ballard Power (BLDP) about four years ago at $1.35/share. It has since tripled in price so I'm sitting on some nice profits. I guess most of their revenue comes from buses and forklifts. I've never believed fuel cell cars would gain traction anytime soon - just purchased them because they were cheap, had a lot of IPR and thought they might get bought out. Anyone have an opinion on their business going forward? Sell or hold?


I really don't understand the economics of hydrogen fuel cell forklifts due to the fact that battery-electric seems so much more affordable and range is not a concern. I paid for college by working at a soda-pop bottling/distribution plant where I drove an electric forklift. Lead-acid batteries used in the tail of the lift comprised the bulk of the counter-ballast for lifting full pallets of soda to the warehouse roof without tipping over. This was in the 1970s and the thing was a blast to drive. We would soap the warehouse floor after business hours for its weekly wet-cleaning and would never forget to "scrub" the floors good by doing 20 mph brodies/burnouts all around the soaped floors before squeegeeing them dry. In the dry they had plenty of acceleration and power and the low-tech batteries easily lasted through our entire workday (although in intermittent use).

Thinking of selling BLDP before earnings release today.

They don't look like they are even close to making a profit. They have been around for a long time and their market cap is still under one billion. I would sell unless you know something about them that I don't. They were $100 a share in 2000.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I tried searching for the avg cost. Most places are showing much more than $40k. Tesla quotes $50k for my house (~3k sq ft) with 50% solar. Traditional roof would be $9.5k according to them. There is $12k tax credit, so net cost is ~40k.

Now, if I pay Tesla the full amount and Tesla pays the contractors, I'd guess the full $50k is revenue for Tesla. Ofcourse they will have lower margin this way than charging just for the roof and showing lower revenue.

Have they actually updated the site for the new v3 roofs, or is this still for v2? New ones are supposed to be vastly cheaper.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

But Ford has invested in and partnered with Rivian, announced (although not revealed details) that there will be a fully electric F-150, and even produced a video (or was that produced by someone else) of an electric F-150 prototype towing a train. At least a little encouraging, along with the fact that they survived the “Great Recession” of 2007-2009 without taking federal funds, unlike GM.

I would like to see at least one of these legacy automakers get nimble enough to survive the transition.

The ford F150 they are talking about is a Hybrid. I am sure it has lot's of power but who wants to own a vehicle that. That's why the Chevy Volt isn't selling. Sure it's electric but you still need to get oil changes, tune ups. A Tesla truck will be able to go up to one million miles without hardly any maintenance.

 

[traxila]

My point is, it's pretty silly to blame your woes on the man that's out there on the front line making it all happen. And, don't worry, I tell everyone who thinks they could do it better to start there own auto company. Or invest in the competition. Because I think the peanut gallery antics are silly. Nothing personal, just my take.

When did I say I could do it better?

Nothing personal about directly telling me to go start my own auto company when I have been worshiping at the altar of Tesla for the past six years...

I thought this was the appropriate forum to mention some trades I made based on market conditions and potential issues as I saw them. Thank you for your response.

 

[Fred42]

Based on what happened last time I don’t think the SEC wants to go to court over this again. I think Musk has been more than fair for them and any judge knows it’s opening up a bigger mess than it’s worth if they were to have to prosecute a CEO over tweets.

There’s no precedent for this so it’s best not to make one.

There could be a political decision, and Tesla and TSLA will be harmed regardless of the outcome, which is the point.

 

[Off Shore]

Elon does have a timing problem. Has he been early on ANYTHING? He is always late but almost always get's there. That's a huge difference.

Elon's timing problem is exacerbated by people changing "hope" to "promise" FWIW.

 

[Sean Wagner]

In Wallonia, on Tuesdays, Etron outsells Model S

Etron rolled in glitter, naturellement. "Souvenirs, novelties, party tricks":

The problem for the still biggish American "pickup manufacturers" is that they make a silly amount of all their profit on the luxe versions I think will be hardest hit by the Tesla pickup, although they should get a brief reprieve thanks to the futuristic styling gleefully bandied about in some quarters [can't wait to see it!].

However, if they allow themselves to be lulled into a slow reaction due to the professed "conservatism" of many existing buyers, toast is what comes to mind. Incidentally, Rivian should be the perfect electric segue - I do think that's a very promising enterprise and a smart investment if Ford plays it right. Still, the transition will be unnecessarily hard on many companies and people if this administration's wilful uncoupling from productive problem solving continues.

Illusions won't help. Battery cells, anyone? Fake dog poo? [see the clip]

Did get to check out a special X yesterday... dressed up in matching colors for the occasion, of course.

My daily Automobile e-mail had this article link
What’s Going on at BMW? Many Future/Current Cars Are Being Axed
but I found that the article was deleted.

Google the title:
What’s Going on at BMW? Many Future/Current Cars Are Being Axed

Quote .../ Like Audi and Mercedes, BMW is struggling to make money on cars that retail at less than €40,000, and roughly the same amount in U.S. currency. The rear-wheel-drive 1 Series, the 2 Series, and lower-trim 3 Series variants contribute very little if anything at all to the bottom line, and the company has established a list of doomed models. /... Unquote


VW AG is making money hand over fist, though: 5.13 billion euros ($5.71 billion) operating profit in Q2 2019.
VW Group profit bucks trend as SUV push pays off

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Why is everyone freaking out about the tesla CEO tweeting about the tesla business? The SEC got upset that he tweeted something inside market hours without even telling the board. This time neither of these things are true.
FFS the SEC did not prevent the tesla CEO from ever tweeting about tesla, or its plans. Its lunacy to think there is any problem whatsoever with what he has tweeted lately.
Some people are just looking for bad news. Looks like the SP agrees with me.

 

[EVNow]

Have they actually updated the site for the new v3 roofs, or is this still for v2? New ones are supposed to be vastly cheaper.

No idea … On the page at the end says "Initial trial installations are complete and customer installations are underway with plans to ramp up in 2019. " - not sure whether it was updated this year or last.

 

[Fact Checking]

Have to admit have PTSD over this tweeting crap.

I hedged out my trading position 100%. Was a lot easier to do based on the past two days. Am really tired of the SEC f**ing me and Elon f**ing himself with this stupidity. He is just too smart for this crap. He is being defiant here.

I think people are giving you crap because you are very clearly jumping the gun by suggesting that Elon is being "defiant" here: despite the best efforts of the TSLAQ crowd to misrepresent Elon's settlement with the SEC, Elon is NOT barred from tweeting about Tesla, and he has in the past few months tweeted various pieces of potentially material information about Tesla.

I presume he consulted with the Tesla securities counsel as required by the settlement before sending such tweets - why are you assuming that he didn't?

 

[AudubonB]

On PV Panels atop Containers -

My containers are oriented wrong (N-S), so I couldn’t do this, but I persuaded my next-door neighbor to do this and he is extremely satisfied with the results. As below ====>

 

[VValleyEV]

Strictly speaking, Ford had a five or six billion dollar loan from the same program that Tesla borrowed from. Ford is still making payments (I believe it was for over 27 years). That's what kept them afloat because the EV that this money produced couldn't possibly have cost that much to develop.

Aha, thanks, I had swallowed the Kool-Aid ad campaign from Ford about not taking any bailout money.

I see that it took a bit of hair splitting to make that claim: their money didn’t come from the “TARP” funds used to bailout the other auto manufacturers, instead came from a different fund. Interestingly enough, relative to our context here:
“ In return, it (Ford) pledged to accelerate development of both hybrid and battery-powered vehicles ...”

Was the Big 3 Auto Bailout Worth It?