Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

and another choice quote:

For now, both hybrids and electric cars are more expensive to produce than comparable gas-powered vehicles. A hybrid system can add roughly $2,000 to a vehicle’s cost, while a fully electric version costs an additional $6,000 to $10,000, said Alan Baum, an independent Detroit-area auto analyst.

So, if we can trust this analyst then surely a legacy maker with their decades of experience designing gasoline cars could make a gasoline competitor to the Model 3 that was compelling for $25k to $29k, right?

I get that a Chevy Bolt probably costs $6k to $10k more than a comparable non-EV GM vehicle, but that is really just an indictment of GM's ability to make an EV with Tesla being the elephant in the room that no one is willing to mention.

 

[humbaba]

Wonder when we'll end up with a full heel-turn out of Toyota and Honda. They still haven't given up on their "hydrogen is the future, EVs are just a temporary fad" talk.

with an extra helping of "we have a 10-year plan for solid state batteries." I think their continued heel digging on hydrogen is an indicator for the lack of progress on the solid state front.

(Other indicators include the lack of published research that would make solid state credible and their repeated guidance that it is a 10-year plan while having nothing to show for it even as the ten years nears the end.)

 

[Lessmog]

Wonder when we'll end up with a full heel-turn out of Toyota and Honda. They still haven't given up on their "hydrogen is the future, EVs are just a temporary fad" talk.

It will blow up in their faces like a Hindenburg cigar. Not funny.

 

[Krugerrand]

Even if Porsche somehow takes a performance crown of some made up metric specifically tailored to the car, what is their performance answer to the Roaster?

Their answer is the Broiler, of course. Like, duh!

 

[HG Wells]

Kind of like holding Reagan up as the ideal republican in this current time.

Well, compared to the current crop, he was stellar.
He could at least read and write.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Too bad this type of di*k measuring contest goes against the point of EVs. You pollute a whole lot putting a 200kwh battery pack into a car that's just dead weight 95% of the time when a 300-400 mile car is more than enough for everyday use. Guess you got to do what you got to do to sell cars. It's frustrating how every company just sees Tesla as some kind of cancer they want to get rid of with their own "Tesla killer" product vs being serious about transitioning their portfolio to sustainable energy.

Ahaha, that's not what I mean by progress:

1. D*cks gonna d*ck, wood u rather have fossile d*ck?
   
2. 600+ mile 2024 bty will be the same weight as the current bty (c.f. Maxwell)
3. the 2024 S/X with 3 SRPM (Model 3) motors will cost/req less than today's S/X
   
4. fleet avg bty pack size will decrease with economies of scale: (c.f. Mtr Pln 2)
   
   • Model 2 $25K will have a pack half the weight of Model 3 yet sell 2x vol
   • Model 1 $15K (if necessary) removes ALL ICE from showrooms
5. who would buy a Maybach, BMW M3-4-5, G-Wagen, Dodge RAM, or Daimler Cascadia when the EV alternative is 3x cheaper, and better by every measurable parameter?
6. This will be the case NLT 2030 imho, and it's why I'm long TSLA.

Cheers!

 

[humbaba]

The day is still young, but $TSLA is finally narrowing the gap with NASDAQ. In particular, as NASDAQ has declined $TSLA has held. Now I get to be obsessive watching the stock price through the day even though I won't sell and have no powder to accumulate

 

[Lessmog]

Even if Porsche somehow takes a performance crown of some made up metric specifically tailored to the car, what is their performance answer to the Roaster?

Their answer is the Broiler, of course. Like, duh!

It is so obviously a chicken race!

 

[BobbyKings]

Has this one been posted here yet?
So true...

The Tesla Conspiracy... or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? - EVTV Motor Verks

 

[Unpilot]

Has this one been posted here yet?
So true...

The Tesla Conspiracy... or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? - EVTV Motor Verks

Yes a couple of times...but a good read...I read it twice!
If you like Jack then his written word is much easier on the brain than watching his video's IMHO.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Is anyone else following developments at Nio? They are looking in very bad financial shape right now and I’m concerned how a collapse could setback the EV industry. Nio are trying to negotiate a $1.4bn investment (read bailout) from Beijing “E-town” capital, I think this will likely happen, but at the cost of selling most of their assets into a JV. However if it falls through Nio could very quickly fall into bankruptcy and I think this outcome would be a large setback for many of the EV startups who still need continuous financing.

Nio free cash outflow was around $700m in Q1 despite cancelling plans to build their own factory and what looks like a cut to production to avoid inventory build. They finished Q1 with $1.1bn cash and I expect this will be much lower by now given Q2 and July sales were worse than Q1. In July sales were abysmal with just 164 ES8 sales (down from 927 in June and a peak 3,318 in Dec ) and 673 of the new cheaper (almost certainly lower margin) ES6s. Q1 gross margin was -13%, Q2 gm is likely to be worse, while Q3 margin will be hit further by the ES6 mix and also by the massive reduction in EV subsidies at the end of June which wasn’t passed on to consumers. Nio are guiding for a better August with 2000-2500 sales (July production apparently impacted by building batteries for recalls), but this still isn’t nearly enough to be profitable even on the gross margin level.

I generally wish all EV programs and EV startups well, but I’ve got no respect for Nio management. They have been very dishonest in their investor communication and earlier this year the CEO spent as much time lying about Tesla on his investor call as he did talking about his own products. Still, I hope they can turn this around.

Been following Nio since last Fall, mainly to keep informed about potential competition for Tesla but also because I had a friend ,who was very inexperienced with trading and wall st shenanigans, that was buying into their hype.....which was obviously BS. They were and still are pretty much as close to a scam as you can get.

The bright side? It was a excellent example to show my friend of how crooked Wall St is and how the perception of a company from the media and wall st can completely hide the truth about a company and it's prospects.....both for the bad and the good. As FC pointed out, during Nio's huge run from IPO to 12/share in the winter, CNBC was hyping the stock while continually making it seem they like a viable threat to Tesla. At the same time, as we all know CNBC ran constant demand and bankruptcy campaigns against Tesla.

I personally didn't mind the scam machine that was Nio/CNBC during the Fall/Winter of last year because it all crumbling in real time made a greater impact on my friend than me just telling them "Hey Wall St is rigged and crooked as hell". All I had to say when Nio was shooting up to 8/9 share to 10-12/share was "Just wait and watch what's going to happen here"

 

[mrmage]

and another choice quote:



So, if we can trust this analyst then surely a legacy maker with their decades of experience designing gasoline cars could make a gasoline competitor to the Model 3 that was compelling for $25k to $29k, right?

I get that a Chevy Bolt probably costs $6k to $10k more than a comparable non-EV GM vehicle, but that is really just an indictment of GM's ability to make an EV with Tesla being the elephant in the room that no one is willing to mention.

More like Tesla could make it for 10k less. The idea of EM spending 100 hr weeks slaving away on an ICE design could be the premise for a dystopian alternate reality film.

 

[SO16]

Too bad this type of di*k measuring contest goes against the point of EVs.

On that particular EV? Yes.

But if that performance encourages many more people to notice (and purchase) an EV who otherwise would not, then well worth it.

 

[humbaba]

More like Tesla could make it for 10k less. The idea of EM spending 100 hr weeks slaving away on an ICE design could be the premise for a dystopian alternate reality film.

I get your point, but I think being an EV is at the core of the Model 3 -- unlike other EVs which are ICE vehicles with an electric drive train shoved into them the Model 3 (and S & X) are designed from the ground up to be an EV. I don't think the price differential exists for them -- or at least it is much less than $6k. Making an ICE version of the M3 would involve a lot of compromises.

 

[Singuy]

On that particular EV? Yes.

But if that performance gets many more people to notice (and purchase) an EV that otherwise would not, then well worth it.

So you think Tesla's S Raven, P3D and a production car that is as fast as a formula 1 car is not good enough to convince people electric power dominates? Porsche is bringing nothing new to the table. Show me a car with a 300 mile range using a 50kwh pack and then we will talk.

The world is not missing any high performance EVs. It's missing a $50/kwh powerpack.

 

[KarenRei]

More like Tesla could make it for 10k less. The idea of EM spending 100 hr weeks slaving away on an ICE design could be the premise for a dystopian alternate reality film.

(Registering for Netflix) ".... and what's the name of this film again?"

Seriously, alternate-reality Elon Musk is a brilliant plot idea Put him into virtually any universe and you make it better. "Hey, remember that scene in Pride and Prejudice where Mr. Darcy catches a steam-powered Loop vehicle into London to invest in some crazy "rocketship" idea that a gentleman from the Cape Colony is talking up?"

 

[SO16]

So you think Tesla's S Raven, P3D and a production car that is as fast as a formula 1 car is not good enough to convince people electric power dominates? Porsche is bringing nothing new to the table. Show me a car with a 300 mile range using a 50kwh pack and then we will talk.

The world is not missing any high performance EVs. It's missing a $50/kwh powerpack.

The Model S still has some pitfalls when it comes to performance. Many people still point to overheating, can’t make it around Nuremberg, etc.

Even at 370 miles of range, there are still people who say they can get 500 in their gas car.

The Roadster is to prove that EVs are better than ICE in all areas with no exceptions (Okay except for refill time but that is dropping too.).

With more sales comes higher volumes and hopefully lower battery prices.

 

[Mobius484]

For as much as the shorts talked about and loved Nio, people like Mathew battle(twitter short troll) Et. Al. Just loved NIO over Tesla. Always concern trolling and talking about how it was such a better investment. HAHAHA

 

[Causalien]

Been following Nio since last Fall, mainly to keep informed about potential competition for Tesla but also because I had a friend ,who was very inexperienced with trading and wall st shenanigans, that was buying into their hype.....which was obviously BS. They were and still are pretty much as close to a scam as you can get.

The bright side? It was a excellent example to show my friend of how crooked Wall St is and how the perception of a company from the media and wall st can completely hide the truth about a company and it's prospects.....both for the bad and the good. As FC pointed out, during Nio's huge run from IPO to 12/share in the winter, CNBC was hyping the stock while continually making it seem they like a viable threat to Tesla. At the same time, as we all know CNBC ran constant demand and bankruptcy campaigns against Tesla.

I personally didn't mind the scam machine that was Nio/CNBC during the Fall/Winter of last year because it all crumbling in real time made a greater impact on my friend than me just telling them "Hey Wall St is rigged and crooked as hell". All I had to say when Nio was shooting up to 8/9 share to 10-12/share was "Just wait and watch what's going to happen here"

Ya it was educational.

I will just repeat what I said before of any Chinese tech company.

If they advertise themselves as the "so and so" of China. Like iPhone of China, Tesla of China, Facebook of China. Then do not invest.
Also, their accounting book can be disregarded since they keep 2 different sets of books.
Often, if you copy the exact business model and try to reproduce it in China, it won't work. So these companies who claim to be something of China are usually trapped by their own claims that forces them to be somewhat similar to what the US company is doing.

 

[pnungesser]

"Saw tooth" loading bays are not entirely unknown:



But yeah, they clearly wanted to maximize effective loading capacity. Nice design!

Also the "saw tooth" design would allow a new building to be built as a mirror image of the existing, but with less space between the buildings since the trucks would not project as far into the road between the buildings.