Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sancho]

It is not as simple as this. There is an interplay between external and internal deadlines - and how seriously people take the internal deadlines.

BTW, the deadlines that are too aggressive also demotivate people. So, EM has to balance between setting too unrealistic a deadline and too much gap between internal & external. I beleive his internal deadlines are indeed more aggressive than what he is tweeting out.

For eg., it is likely he thought by Aug 16 Enh Summon can indeed be out. Afterall we had EAP get new enh summon a couple of weeks back. So, it could have been out potentially by now.

In anycase this is what I think Tesla should do in terms of increasing FSD price :
- Rollout the feature to EAP
- If early feedback is good, announce likely increase of FSD in "coming weeks"
- Release feature, set the date for price increase 1/2 weeks out
- Increase price on the date set

You’re right, balancing internal and external communication is a challenge. Musk isn’t the first CEO of a high growth company to have to grapple with it. In most ways Musk is superior to most CEOs, but on this particular management challenge, Musk’s impulse to give aggressive projections is quite detrimental.

In the last earnings release, the company tried to rectify previous guidance errors by giving very little specific guidance. That won’t work for two reasons: 1) WS dislikes vagueness, and 2) Musk will continue to impulsively spout projections (“tough Q1, not as tough Q2, terrific Q3”, whatever that all means).

Musk and his management team should collectively agree on specific, very conservative guidance, publish it quarterly, not deviate from it in his public comments, and hopefully beat it most quarters if it’s truly conservative enough. That’s how they’d win the public’s trust, a very valuable thing to have.

 

[StealthP3D]

The DOJ could go after Tesla after it was a monopoly. Not before. There is really nothing to worry about hear in the present.

A common misunderstanding is that under US law monopolies are illegal and must be broken up.

This is false. As long as Tesla reaches monopoly status because their products are so superior in terms of cost/value ratio and they achieve this without using anti-competitive behavior, then there is nothing illegal about their monopoly status and nothing the DOJ could do.

Monopolies due to excellent engineering and superior design are something to be celebrated in our form of capitalism, not penalized. The very goal of capitalism is to create vigorous competition so products that have a superior cost/performance ratio will emerge. This does not harm consumers, it benefits them.

 

[StealthP3D]

Bjorn experienced roll-back with his M3P on the autobahn whenever he used hard acceleration or attempted to cruise faster than about 200-210 kph. He posted the vid more than a month ago (let me know if you can find it).

Do you have any idea how rare it would be for anyone to actually want to cruise at 124-130 mph for any length of time? Traffic on most sections of the Autobahn during most times of the day is simply too high to make that a practical consideration. And doing it at night would be suicidal.

Also, I don't believe Bjorn was in Track Mode which kicks up the chilling capacity. I believe it also tolerates higher temperatures. Too much is being made of throttling on the Performance Model 3. Even gas cars in this performance range can become heat limited.

 

[StealthP3D]

Short term perhaps. Unless the fed takes fairly drastic measures and the tariff wars reach an amicable conclusion, we will probably be in a recession in 1-2 years.

The upcoming election next year may very well be around then too, which should spook out the market even more.

I'm betting that the China/US trade war is resolved (probably sometime this fall). It might not be any better of an agreement that what was in effect previously but the administration will crow about it as if it's the best thing since sliced bread.

 

[StealthP3D]

And as for: one-pedal vs. two-pedal driving... my personal preference would be one-pedal with a wide "neutral band" in the middle so that you don't have to delicately thread the balance between acceleration and regen.

I like that idea but with the caveat that we don't know how much more efficient coasting is than a combination of mild regen/mild power application. Because when a permanent magnet motor is "coasting" it is still consuming power. It might be better to go into light regen. The fact that AP and TACC seems to prefer light regen followed by light power application seems to support this.

 

[carterm2]

I'm betting that the China/US trade war is resolved (probably sometime this fall). It might not be any better of an agreement that what was in effect previously but the administration will crow about it as if it's the best thing since sliced bread.

Everything is fine.

Kudlow says he doesn't see a recession on the horizon, defends Trump's trade war

 

[LTC_RRR]

Do you have any idea how rare it would be for anyone to actually want to cruise at 124-130 mph for any length of time? Traffic on most sections of the Autobahn during most times of the day is simply too high to make that a practical consideration. And doing it at night would be suicidal.

Also, I don't believe Bjorn was in Track Mode which kicks up the chilling capacity. I believe it also tolerates higher temperatures. Too much is being made of throttling on the Performance Model 3. Even gas cars in this performance range can become heat limited.

When I was much younger and was living in Germany, I once did 175 KMPH wherever possible from Amsterdam to Frankfurt, at the end of which period, my hands ached from the white-knuckled death grip on the steering wheel and I believe I aged several years on that trip. Never again,

 

[RobStark]

A common misunderstanding is that under US law monopolies are illegal and must be broken up.

This is false. As long as Tesla reaches monopoly status because their products are so superior in terms of cost/value ratio and they achieve this without using anti-competitive behavior, then there is nothing illegal about their monopoly status and nothing the DOJ could do.

Monopolies due to excellent engineering and superior design are something to be celebrated in our form of capitalism, not penalized. The very goal of capitalism is to create vigorous competition so products that have a superior cost/performance ratio will emerge. This does not harm consumers, it benefits them.

Any half wit lawyer can make a reasonable argument that any monopoly is exercising anti-competitive behavior that harms consumers.

That doesn't mean the argument is valid and will win in court. But it is a danger that investors should consider.

 

[Joe F]

Personally I don’t care about hypermiling. One foot, two feet, regen vs coasting etc, to me is a non issue. As long as I have enough to get to my next charging stop, sweating over shaving a modicum of energy used is moot. Perhaps just me.

Different if I were aiming for bragging rights, but we just spent a week going to Bar Harbor and back, and I challenge anyone to travel through New York, Boston, and surrounding areas and worry about regen issues. Tip: If that’s important to you, stay far away from any major highway.

 

[Beltsbear]

Any half wit lawyer can make a reasonable argument that any monopoly is exercising anti-competitive behavior that harms consumers.

That doesn't mean the argument is valid and will win in court. But it is a danger that investors should consider.

They can make that argument but it will go nowhere against the huge resources that they are flighting against. Without question, Microsoft engaged in many anti-competitive practices but basically had very little done to them.

 

[AndyH]

There was a segment on prime time news in Sweden tonight about setbacks in development of self driving cars. A Swedish engineer at Lyft explained that the main problem holding everyone back now is lack of relevant data for training.

If only there was a company that foresaw that problem...

 

[elasalle]

A new Credit Check for my recent solar panel reads - "Chevron Fcu/fni/sunlight" -

 

[RobStark]

They can make that argument but it will go nowhere against the huge resources that they are flighting against. Without question, Microsoft engaged in many anti-competitive practices but basically had very little done to them.

It is much easier to make the argument in a capital intensive industry.

Because a guilty Microsoft got off scott free in the past doesn't mean an innocent Tesla won't be broken up in the future.

Different POTUS, different Congress, and different SCOTUS. Different electorate.

 

[anthonyj]

Wow guys, check it out. A new Tesla Chart! It shows that Tesla doesn’t have the best range and efficiency. The I-Feces has wayyy more range. It even has a reference link, so it has to be right. I can’t believe Tesla would make such false claims.

 

[AlMc]

Things are getting interesting: Tesla shows interest in India’s plans to build battery plants

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I know a car burglary is an important event in one’s life, but why post about it in the investor thread? All 14 posts on this subject have been moved here: Off topic (out of main)

 

[Cherry Wine]

Wow guys, check it out. A new Tesla Chart! It shows that Tesla doesn’t have the best range and efficiency. The I-Feces has wayyy more range. It even has a reference link, so it has to be right. I can’t believe Tesla would make such false claims.

View attachment 443500

Later all - selling my shares, shelving my purchasing plans for an X, and buying an I-Pace instead. I would say that I’ll delete my TMC account, but I think I will instead hang around to enlighten you all on my upcoming car’s superior “real range” and why Tesla is doomed.

 

[jerry33]

I know a car burglary is an important event in one’s life, but why post about it in the investor thread?

Tesla shares are a steal right now?

 

[RobStark]

Things are getting interesting: Tesla shows interest in India’s plans to build battery plants

Interesting, the floor for a government subsidized GF is 5 GWh while the ceiling is 20 GWh.

They want Tesla(plus Panasonic?),Chinese and Korean companies to each build GFs so no one company has a monopoly.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

How will Tesla renting solar panels at such low prices not have a significant impact on cash flow?

Tesla Makes Solar Affordable Again With New Monthly Rental Plans | CleanTechnica