Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Today's Closing:

-1.36% F
-1.14% FCAU
0.00% GM
+1.62% TSLA (high of the day)

 

[elasalle]

How are TSLA bonds doing ..? asking for a F (riend) ...

 

[204EV]

How about that huge volume at the close over 600K in last 15 mins. hopefully carries into premarket tomorrow

 

[Tim S]

Note that the email from JG isn't necessarily about Model 3 production increase:

Tesla is preparing a mysterious production capacity increase - Electrek​

If they increased production beyond the 5-10% QoQ that would result in the estimated 100k-105k deliveries, where did those cars go? Europe, China and RHD countries seem to be accounted for, and InsideEVs's Q3 US delivery numbers are modest so far.

I don't think we have accurate numbers from anyplace except a few specific European countries. The rest are estimates. I guess we will find out for sure about Q3 production in a few weeks. I won't guess a number, but I think most here are being conservative.

And that Troy guy is just ridiculous.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

i feel like my post said pretty much the exact same thing. 100k-108k, roughly. i went with 100k to account for my own fanboy bias.

I wasn’t disagreeing. Just looking at what happens if all the unknown numbers equal the numbers we know so far (109k), or if all the unknown numbers equal Q2 numbers (101k).

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I wouldn't say it's too large to imagine. Maybe it's not likely, but it seems possible. In Q2 of last year Tesla produced 10k more Model S/X than they did in Q2 of this year. If they could get S/X production back up, they would need another 12k of Model 3 production to hit 109k total, so a 15% increase in 3 production.

I could imagine deliveries increasing from 95k to 110k+, but I don’t think Tesla can sell much more than they produce, the way they did in Q2. Q2 production was just over 87k, so I have a hard to seeing that increase by more than 22k in one quarter. I’d be thrilled if it did (there was the leak of Jerome saying big increases were coming), but I’m not counting on it.

 

[Fact Checking]

here was the leak of Jerome saying big increases were coming)

I don't think that's accurate. Here is what Gerome's email was saying:

https://electrek.co/2019/07/09/tesla-mysterious-production-capacity-increase/

The company is “making preparations” to raise output at its auto plant in Fremont, California, Tesla’s automotive president, Jerome Guillen, said in an email to employees on Tuesday. “While we can’t be too specific in this email, I know you will be delighted with the upcoming developments.”​

It wasn't qualified with "big", only that employees would be delighted with the upcoming developments, which they obviously would be, even if it was only a +500 cars/week increase, from Q2's 6k/week to say 6.5k/week - which would increase Q3 production from Q2's 72.5k to about 78k.

Maybe enough to break the 100k limit. Let's not get uberbullish AF, ok?

 

[RiverCard]

Looking at the rate of progress of the Shanghai GF, I keep having this vision of Tesla dangling it and its construction time in front of states/counties/municipalities in the US and saying: “HERE is what we were able to do with a cooperative government half-way around the world...in a marsh. Ball’s in your court.”

So true. Those totalitarian regimes have got it all figured out. Hopefully, the next administration will exempt the new GF here from that pesky EIS and waive OSHA obstructions.

 

[anthonyj]

TSLA was the #1 sold stock on Robinhood today. Over 700 accounts sold out their shares today. If retail is selling, institutions are buying (slowly)
Robintrack

 

[mrmage]

So true. Those totalitarian regimes have got it all figured out. Hopefully, the next administration will exempt the new GF here from that pesky EIS and waive OSHA obstructions.

Totalitarian regimes can do good things, just like democratic regimes can do bad things.

I'm thrilled to see Tesla ramping up so quickly in China. A low emissions, high efficiency, and cutting edge EV being built in a country that wants to reduce climate change and pollution by creating incentives and accelerating their factory. How forward thinking is that?

Compare that to the US launching an antitrust probe against four automakers for agreeing to stricter fuel efficiency standards.

 

[Fact Checking]

TSLA was the #1 sold stock on Robinhood today. Over 700 accounts sold out their shares today. If retail is selling, institutions are buying (slowly)
Robintrack

Number of Robinhood holders is still near record levels, at 158k users holding, close to the absolute record of ~168k users holding:

And this is despite TSLA having risen ~40% from the Q1 lows, so it goes beyond swing trading.

I'd also think that the dip in TSLA holdings today is possibly related to speculative AAPL positions being taken up, in hope of a bigger surprise during today's Apple event.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA was the #1 sold stock on Robinhood today. Over 700 accounts sold out their shares today. If retail is selling, institutions are buying (slowly)
Robintrack

Interesting. TSLA was nicely up today, and closed on its high for the session. The popular averages and other auto stocks finished well behind.

So it appears that today weak hands were distributing their TSLA shares to strong hands that were accumulating. This is typical when a stock is pushed to its low for the day on heavy volume during the opening minutes, then rises to its high for the day on renewed heavy volume near the close. It can be seen as a quite positive technical signal.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Let's not get uberbullish AF, ok?

I’m not counting on it.

I think the context makes it clear I wasn’t being uberbullish.

 

[Reinhard]

I wonder if these type of articles is what’s driving TSLA stock price up, looks like Germany’s big-3 are no longer dragging their feet when it comes to EVs. The race is on and Tesla is the standard to beat.y.

I think the jump in stock price may have been because of the real time registration data from NNS. Before the website updated today, the Q3 figures were 12% above Q2. Today, it jumped to 18% above Q2 with a large chunk of LR AWD being registered.

 

[Causalien]

Totalitarian regimes can do good things, just like democratic regimes can do bad things.

I'm thrilled to see Tesla ramping up so quickly in China. A low emissions, high efficiency, and cutting edge EV being built in a country that wants to reduce climate change and pollution by creating incentives and accelerating their factory. How forward thinking is that?

Compare that to the US launching an antitrust probe against four automakers for agreeing to stricter fuel efficiency standards.

That was a head scracher for me. First, automakers foregoing profit and actually want to benefit the environment. Then the government smacking them for wanting a better earth? A double negative is a positive right?

But then, in this upside down world of negative interest rate. Maybe everything is upside down as well.

Communist = good, Democracy = bad?

 

[M3Rider]

After the first 2 months of Q3, Europe deliveries are 2245 ahead of Q2 (+26%). US deliveries (per InsideEVs estimates) are 3400 ahead of Q2 (+12%). Keep in mind the US numbers are just estimates, so maybe we’re only 1k ahead or maybe we’re 6k ahead.

Combine US & Europe numbers, and we’re 5645 ahead of Q2 (+15%). I don’t know of any solid numbers for Canada, China, or rest of the world.

If Q3 ends up 15% ahead of Q2, there’ll be about 109k deliveries, which would be huge & make profitability likely. If Q3 ends up 5645 ahead, there’ll be about 101k deliveries— which would be a huge new record, but would leave profitability in doubt, unless Tesla does a great job with margins.

Of course, deliveries could end up lower than 101k or higher than 109k, but it’s hard to see how. Less than 101k would fly in the face of the delivery numbers we have so far. More than 109k would require production increases that are almost too large to imagine.

Nice to break through $235 after fracturing our skulls on the previous attempt.

And against general sentiment too. Are markets getting a whiff that deliveries are going to be good? Profits may be coming?

I think before anybody gets carried away about profits, we need to remember that the price drop in U.S. of $1k/$2k/$5 per car will be for the first time applied to the margins of this quarter - we have not yet seen its effect and it's unknown whether Tesla was able to cut its costs / improve efficiencies to the tune of this amount.

Edit: on the other hand if V10 is released before EOM, they may be able to recognize some FSD income.

Btw, the new updated incentive from 1000 to 2000 free supercharger miles for the deliveries by Oct 1 - this seems weird given that delivery takes like 2 weeks, you almost get no time to use it.

 

[StealthP3D]

If they increased production beyond the 5-10% QoQ that would result in the estimated 100k-105k deliveries, where did those cars go? Europe, China and RHD countries seem to be accounted for, and InsideEVs's Q3 US delivery numbers are modest so far.

More significant than how many cars were produced or delivered in the current quarter would be when the production ramp happened. If it took a while to gear up they could finish the quarter with production capacity well above that which they entered the quarter without delivering more than 105K. Personally, I think they will beat 105K but am more interested in weekly production numbers, ASP's and cost efficiency gains.

TSLA is trading as if these things are going to be relatively flat Q over Q but my instinct tells me things are way better than investors are giving them credit for.

 

[StealthP3D]

Btw, the new updated incentive from 1000 to 2000 free supercharger miles for the deliveries by Oct 1 - this seems weird given that delivery takes like 2 weeks, you almost get no time to use it.

Well, it's better than nothing. And a good low-cost way to juice sales at the end of the quarter so they can get as many freshly produced cars into customers hands.

 

[Carl Raymond]

And this is despite TSLA having risen ~40% from the Q1 lows, so it goes beyond swing trading.

So it appears that today weak hands were distributing their TSLA shares to strong hands that were accumulating.

I like Curt’s theory. Two types of buyers. Those trading the flip (to profitability) and those trading the CAGR (as well as the flip).

The first group are looking to make 30-50% in six months or less. The second group are looking for 5x to 10x in about 5 years.

The first group is flippant. Some already looking to sell on the mere hint of Q3 profits. Good riddance.

The steady level of robin hood investors may be deceptive, masking the exit of group one and the entrance of group two.

 

[Todd Burch]

Btw, the new updated incentive from 1000 to 2000 free supercharger miles for the deliveries by Oct 1 - this seems weird given that delivery takes like 2 weeks, you almost get no time to use it.

I think they’re trying to spur Cali/local orders to boost quarter numbers that can be delivered quickly.