Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Are both cars at the ring Plaid? I thought one was to be the currently available P100D. When did this change?

There's at least 3 Models S at the 'ring this week:

1. Grey colored Raven production model
   
2. Red colored Plaid prototype
   
3. Blue colored Plaid prototype

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Just beating every street legal production car would be tremendous already.

Still I think Roadster 2 has a decent chance of going faster than the 919 Hybrid. Just shut them up once and for all.

The 919’s top speed during its run is 369 km/h, while the Roadster can do 400+ km/h.

Roadster also accelerates faster.

But then there is the question of corning handling, as Roaster will definitely be heavier.

I watched the 919 Hybrid’s run, and with 5:19, the overall speed is horrifying indeed.

That's utterly insane.

The top speed is impressive as I would expect it to be running quite a lot of down force to be able to corner that fast.

I wonder, do these cars have DRS systems like F1, any idea?

Interesting line around The Carousel too - all the way around the outside, I always took it on the inside camber, but hard to control the car around it then.

 

[adiggs]

...

Thanks for posting the video - I think I've watched it 3 or 4 times now over the last few months. This last time, I think I saw the car drop under 100 km/h around 1 corner. Using the overhead map they helpfully supply, that "corner", looks like a 180 degree hairpin where the road folds on itself. Sure - I'd drop under 60 mph (instead of the 10 or 15 that is sane) for that too.

Yeah - that's well described as "horrifyingly fast".

 

[avoigt]

From a Taycan forum (yeah, they one of those already, go figure). A poster named BayareaKen posted this snapshot from the Economist mag

Notice the Porsche line under Operating profit...........I wouldn't worry too much about Porsche long term.

It does not matter where the ICE industry was in 2018 in terms of sales, revenue and operating profit. All what matters is pace of innovation. In terms of Sales, Tesla is annualized already larger than Porsche and if not now than soon in terms of revenues as well. Operating profit is not relevant in a disruptive market and if Tesla would do a large profit, I would sell my shares.

Those charts are a testimony of not really comprehending what is happening.

I do as a German worry very much about Porsche and in particular considering that the Taycan after 4 year development with the undisputed best automotive engineers in Germany and €6bn invested did not do better than the Plaid Model S on a race track like the Nürburgring, which is still family sedan and the Roadster 2 still to come the reputation of Porsche is under hefty attack.

 

[mrdoubleb]

From a Taycan forum (yeah, they one of those already, go figure). A poster named BayareaKen posted this snapshot from the Economist mag

Notice the Porsche line under Operating profit...........I wouldn't worry too much about Porsche long term.

OT: Wow. So Seat is doing so bad now, that they are burying the numbers under Skoda's...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

It's a Le Mans LMP1 class car (the Porsche 919 Hybrid). It's not street legal anywhere (except the streets of Le Mans, while the race is on). it's a full out, pretty much unrestricted class, very few instances ever built because their purposes is high performance endurance racing.

Touching a few higher km/hr in a straight isn't going to get the Roadster 2 into it's category. Much as I'd like it to.


New holder for production cars - I readily believe that (I like the Kool-Aid plenty). But competitive with a car that's been used to win Le Mans in the top class - no.

SpaceX package could change things in unexpected ways. You no longer have just the friction between tires and road to maintain traction, particularly on curves, but added significant acceleration from thrusters.

 

[Nocturnal]

It does not matter where the ICE industry was in 2018 in terms of sales, revenue and operating profit. All what matters is pace of innovation. In terms of Sales, Tesla is annualized already larger than Porsche and if not now than soon in terms of revenues as well. Operating profit is not relevant in a disruptive market and if Tesla would do a large profit, I would sell my shares.

Those charts are a testimony of not really comprehending what is happening.

I do as a German worry very much about Porsche and in particular considering that the Taycan after 4 year development with the undisputed best automotive engineers in Germany and €6bn invested did not do better than the Plaid Model S on a race track like the Nürburgring, which is still family sedan and the Roadster 2 still to come the reputation of Porsche is under hefty attack.

It's extremely hard for large companies to be nimble. I'm not as familiar with the German auto industry, but without government intervention the US companies (all but Ford perhaps) would have been gone years ago. Big corporations don't last forever. I agree that anyone seeing those profits and assuming that Porsche is safe is making some big assumptions.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - half hour ago: Trump administration plans to block California from setting its own vehicle emissions standards

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Him talking about the rear seats having more room hints at an interior refresh so it's not just a powertrain thing. And the interior refresh is something that will happen to all S so that's the real problem. Usually a higher power model doesn't Osborne the lower power model. A civic type R that was a year late didn't stop anyone from buying the Civic.

Whether or not there's a interior and/or exterior refresh with this update......if you're in the market for a Model S/X Performance version right now and you're thinking that for only 5-10 grand more you can get that performance, then yeah it would hurt the top trim levels of S/X. If I thought it was only gonna be 10k more, I'd wait, even if there weren't any other updates to interior and exterior. People that are in the market for a P version of S/X won't flinch for a second about paying 5 to 10 grand more. 30-40k would make them pause and say I might ok with what's available today.

Edit: To add on...there's absolutely zero reason to not give a price range, for example mid 130's, for the Plaid version. It's still cheaper than the mid-range Taycan, yet way faster than the top trim level Taycan.

 

[Nocturnal]

SpaceX package could change things in unexpected ways. You no longer have just the friction between tires and road to maintain traction, particularly on curves, but added significant acceleration from thrusters.

Talk about torque vectoring. At best now you can apply the brakes, soon with multiple motors you can power the wheels differently. With the thrusters one could add downforce to the inside back wheel while another creates force perpendicular to the road to move the rear of the car around the curve.

CNBC - half hour ago: Trump administration plans to block California from setting its own vehicle emissions standards

The sad part is that the auto industry doesn't even want this to change. ​

 

[avoigt]

I disagree, I think this could be a catastrophe for Porsche: the Taycan EV platform took 6 years and billions of dollars to develop, and Porsche expects to sell hundreds of thousands of high margin ICE Porsche's alongside the Taycan to turn the Taycan investment into a break-even investment by 2023.

Anyone who thinks that Porsche can turn on a dime and tweak and iterate their EV platforms like Tesla does has no idea about how inflexible the German automotive industry still is even today. New car platforms take years to develop, generally require new factories to be built, and are only iterated incrementally, with comparably minor changes. [Maybe @avoigt can confirm.]

I believe Tesla's manufacturing and refresh flexibility derives in part from their unified "Tesla Manufacturing Operating System", which provides a single platform and programming interface for all the automation they are using. The German automotive manufacturing status quo is a fractured, heterogeneous mess where each tool manufacturer has a different programming platform and the tools rarely interoperate. In Tesla's factories the Kuka robots, the hydraulic presses and most of the other equipment are all running the same OS under Tesla's control, which is a big advantage:

'The system that controls the whole intricate dance is Tesla’s Manufacturing Operating System, which was built completely in-house, and has evolved to support nearly all of the company’s manufacturing equipment. “The custom-built operating system has allowed Tesla to fine-tune its equipment and processes,” Field writes. “It clearly comes at a cost, as every change must be vetted and developed internally, but the upshot of the additional internal complexity is flexibility. Tesla can quickly come up with a new improvement or change to its products, equipment, or centerlines and implement it before another automaker would even be able to get a formal proposal together to send to a vendor.”'​

[IIRC @schonelucht is working in that industry and might be able to confirm.]

Tesla's "continuous refreshes" concept, where within 10 years they were able to constantly improve the platform is basically unheard of in the automotive industry. The closest parallel among manufacturing companies I can think of is ... SpaceX.

Porsche won't be able to change quickly because they are rather horizontal integrated than vertical. As I pointed out in my latest article at CleanTechnica it is a not fully understood huge advantage of Tesla to have a deep vertical integration and they did it because they had to not because they wanted to.

The German auto industry including Porsche has a proven Model that is almost worthless today and a burden if an agile company like Tesla comes around with a new superior technology.

The inflexibility to change quickly is a backed in disadvantage that has many reasons and can't be changed easily. It will take time to do so if they are able to at all and will cost time and a fortune.

Right now in Sindelfingen there will be a level of frustration and disbelieve that Tesla pulled the plaid out of the sleeve and simply embarrassed them. This is just the start and the plaid production vehicle will do even better and the Roadster next level.

I believe the approach to put two gears in the Taycan was another strategic mistake ignoring the experiences Tesla went through in the early days. I have 1st hand sources confirming the arrogance of Porsche engineers not listening nor learning. Its a cultural problem that leads to inflexibility and that what I call the Taycan disaster.

Premium prices are now not longer justified for the Taycan and likely not for the next BEVs of Porsche and with that their strategy is imploding. I believe Porsche has a very hard awakening in front of them.

 

[204EV]

IMHO, This is a great opportunity for Tesla. to develop light way "racing seats" for plaid s/x/roadster and rotor/pad/caliper/tire combinations. and sell a competition package for the Model 3 in order fo the seats to benefit from Economy of scale slightly by offering it on a $25K+ package on the P3D. HUGE Margin car.

 

[Nocturnal]

IMHO,

Your opinion is so humble that you didn't even share it. That's pretty humble.

 

[Singuy]

Whether or not there's a interior and/or exterior refresh with this update......if you're in the market for a Model S/X Performance version right now and you're thinking that for only 5-10 grand more you can get that performance, then yeah it would hurt the top trim levels of S/X. If I thought it was only gonna be 10k more, I'd wait, even if there weren't any other updates to interior and exterior. People that are in the market for a P version of S/X won't flinch for a second about paying 5 to 10 grand more. 30-40k would make them pause and say I might ok with what's available today.

I think we need to think about the relationship between osbourning and having a lot of disposable income. A multi-millionaire are not the type who likes to "wait to get the best bang for the buck". Whatever they want they want it now, and if something better comes out tomorrow they will trade it in and buy that tomorrow.

I think the true mentality of waiting is for those who barely can afford the item and wants to make sure the item is the best version possible. But this is for money conscious people...which is pretty much the opposite of people who wants the top trim of x, y, z. The high diminishing in return is real at the very top tier so you can't be money conscious and is okay with purchasing something that has the highest diminishing in return. It's an oxymoron itself.

 

[CalX]

Michelin Pilot Sport Cup 2s. Street legal. You know, the same tires that come on Corvettes?

View attachment 455958

BTW, yes those are Carbon-Ceramic brake rotors. Also an option on better 'vette's and porch's.

Cheers!

That's a picture of a Goodyear tire. Goodyear Eagle F1 Supersport RS tires to be specific.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's funny, but Rolls Royce and Rolls Royce Motor Cars are different companies.

Corp structure changed, but thats not who designed and built the engines for Elon's jet:

"The Rolls-Royce BR700 family of turbofan engines powers regional jets and corporate jets. It was developed by BMW and Rolls-Royce plc through the joint venture BMW Rolls-Royce AeroEngines GmbH, established in 1990. The BR710 first ran in 1995. It is manufactured in Dahlewitz, Germany."

Manufacturer: BMW Rolls-Royce a.k.a. Rolls-Royce Deutschland
Major applications: Gulfstream G550/G650
Type: Turbofan
First run: 1995

Rolls-Royce BR700 - Wikipedia​

So I'll check my Janes books, but pretty sure that the last time a RR engine flew over Berlin it was powering a North American P-51D Mustang. Ironic that Gulfstream Aerospace completes midcabin aircraft at their facility in Dallas, Texas near where the P-51 was produced during WW2, wot?

Cheers!

P.S. Tesla Model 3 motors (SRPM) will power the 1st generation of ducted-fan regional TeslaJets, using Tesla/Maxwell Technologies ver 8 lithium batteries (>500 whr/kg).

 

[M3Rider]

This was a clever setup - leak the unofficial track time that nobody can find in the records to lure Tesla out. Now that they know what the Tesla lap time is, they will go ahead and schedule the official lap time at the Ring and easily beat Tesla.

Well, looks like Porsche picked up on my suggestion
Hang on Tesla, Porsche may have a quicker Taycan to run at Nurburgring

The right thing for them to do now would be to claim that turbo S can beat plaid S easily and never send it to the Ring.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Well, looks like Porsche picked up on my suggestion
Hang on Tesla, Porsche may have a quicker Taycan to run at Nurburgring

The right thing for them to do now would be to claim that turbo S can beat plaid S easily and never send it to the Ring.

*Sigh* and another article claiming, incorrectly, that Porsche’s time was official.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah, here in Europe, racetracks are not busy day and night, you know. And sometimes people need to sleep, at least here.

Anyway, a better solution should be expected from Tesla. Why not bring a Megapack to the place? Germany is flooded with green electricity. And for sure there are power outlets nearby. A victory there should not be compromised by unnecessary dirty power production.

But, in best case and that's my hope, this part has just been made up by the newspaper.

Because Tesla needs to be held to a higher standard than any other OEM in the Universe. And we must assume that Tesla didn’t investigate other options before deciding the best way to operate under the circumstances.

Got it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well, looks like Porsche picked up on my suggestion
Hang on Tesla, Porsche may have a quicker Taycan to run at Nurburgring

The right thing for them to do now would be to claim that turbo S can beat plaid S easily and never send it to the Ring.

Eh they're lying. That makes zero sense to test the Turbo instead of the Turbo S. Porsche got caught with it's pants down and is now resorting to lying about what car they tested. Not surprised by this company.

Also that article. Gutted interior of the Model S Plaid for the track? Has there been any sort of evidence to make that claim?