Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

Of course they're not done in that scenario. There's no need for anyone to make a Tesla killer--the situation reminds me of the old saying: "You don't need to outrun the bear. You just need to outrun at least one of your friends." Tesla's not going to be able to supply every vehicle in the market. Ever. So any particular manufacturer doesn't have to top Tesla--it just needs to top enough of the other remaining manufacturers so that when the dominoes start to fall, it remains standing.

and yet that is a sentiment expressed here: that the legacy will go out of business due to lack of effective switching to EV. That is what I'm arguing against. Sure, some may fail completely -- though I suspect only after and despite significant government intervention.

The idea that a legacy manufacturer can be successful at a low cost, entry EV -- something not even Tesla can do at this point -- is IMO silly for that reason. How could a company without any battery expertise or production leapfrog Tesla? I just can't see it happening. And insisting that they need to at least match Tesla just doesn't match reality. Even the ipace is being sold.

At the high to mid points there is still plenty of room for non-Tesla models and will be for the foreseeable future. All the talk about how the Taycan doesn't measure up -- while true -- is almost irrelevant. If the Taycan had somehow been worse than either the ipace or the etron there'd be a point, but it isn't.

While I wish that the legacy OEMs would quit dragging their feet on EVs I don't think their current efforts are little enough to doom them. Not yet, anyway.

 

[jerry33]

and yet that is a sentiment expressed here: that the legacy will go out of business due to lack of effective switching to EV. That is what I'm arguing against. Sure, some may fail completely -- though I suspect only after and despite significant government intervention.

Well, going out of business is exactly what happened to the majority of the tire manufacturers when they didn't switch to making radial tires soon enough. Firestone, Uniroyal, BFG--gone (brands owned by some other company now). Goodyear only survived because of their other products. Government has already bailed out the U.S. auto industry once. They are not going to be too keen on doing it again.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

It obviously can't be a production car. But why would they fake it? Cars are coming out soon.

I have to agree with this. I mean VW/Porsche would never fake anything!

 

[CorneliusXX]

If you are a smart young engineer are you excited by the opportunity of spending your career designing old fashioned luxury interiors on vehicles with so-so performance?

My point is that spending your capital on this path has little future. Some but not much.

My point was that legacy OEMs need to sell EVs. I'm sure R&D money is being spent on the best possible EV drivetrain they can make - it's just not as good as Tesla's. So rather than them pouring money into drivetrain engineering until they are as good, they should still be able to get a saleable vehicle to market while drivetrain R&D continues if they can differentiate their product via "luxury".

As an example Bjorn Nyland really likes the EQC from Mercedes even while acknowledging the drivetrain is worse than Tesla.

Engineers can still work on the best drivetrains they can think of while commercialising mediocre ones.

It can't be as bad as the e-turd though.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla is not production limited on Model S.

Tesla has a self imposed limit on deliveries at the end of quarters. End the wave and delivery capacity expands by multiples.

And Tesla is not production limited on Full Self Drive. They can deliver Full Self Drive to everybody that buys a Tesla but currently don't.

And another thing. If there was all this overwhelming demand there would be no end of quarter discounts on Model 3, Model S and Model X.

S is starting to get long in the tooth, all this Porsche/Plaid stuff should take care of that, and help margins as well. Full Self Drive is still a future promise yet to be realized, I don't think advertising is going to change that. The end of Q discounts are minor. I'm still happy to let Porsche and other's take care of Tesla advertising for now.

 

[EVNow]

Government has already bailed out the U.S. auto industry once. They are not going to be too keen on doing it again.

Auto industry will likely be bailed out again. What will happen to Wall St in the next crash ?

 

[Unpilot]

Whatever you do...do not look at a certain Stock price....or the NASDAQ

 

[30seconds]

*BREAKING NEWS*

SEC chomping at the bit only to find out tweet-sitter approved Elon's orgasmic bulls tweet

Let’s see what Dana Hull says

 

[CorneliusXX]

Well, going out of business is exactly what happened to the majority of the tire manufacturers when they didn't switch to making radial tires soon enough. Firestone, Uniroyal, BFG--gone (brands owned by some other company now). Goodyear only survived because of their other products. Government has already bailed out the U.S. auto industry once. They are not going to be too keen on doing it again.

Tires aren't a source of national pride, or national security for that matter. No major region (US,EU,China, Japan) will let themselves go without an auto industry.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Vincent out with the goods again today
Vincent on Twitter

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

Just curious about thoughts on recognizing FSD revenue in Q3 vs Q4. One might imagine <somebody> pushing for SOMETHING to go out in Q3 (and there’s not much time left!) if they were in need of help, but if we end up seeing Smart Summon not being quite ready for general release by Sep 30, does that set them up for realizing it in Q4?

Does it NOT being in the initial v10 rollout almost appear like a positive sign that they’re not desperate? (Or maybe it still just sucks a bit too much that they couldn’t get it in Q3 even if they want/need it?)

 

[KarenRei]

Vincent on Twitter

ED: Dang, beaten to it by seconds

 

[Webeevdrivers]

So does advertising lead to more Tesla sales or not? 14 people gave this post a like but it seems the overwhelming majority on TMC assert paid TV/Radio/Print/Web ads don't work or wouldn't result in more Tesla sales because all lines of Tesla vehicles are production constrained and ads wouldn't generate higher ASP because youtubers and Elon's twitter feed has educated the entire world on Tesla features.

Petrocan is advertising their sea to sea Electric vehicle highway. We see these commercials a few times per day now. Their is a petrocan dual station Chademo/CCS opening up about 50!km from us. I put the pictures up on plugshare yesterday. Looks like enough room for four of each but just see two of each right now.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Vincent on Twitter

ED: Dang, beaten to it by seconds

Fastest thumbs in the west.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

Latest photo showing Model 3 body in white in @Tesla Gigafactory Shanghai. The starting of production seems imminent.

People are joking this is going to be a present for China’s National Day, which is on October 1.

Quite plausible actually.​

As a Chinese, I can attest to the "present thing".
Every year, countless projects are rushed to be given as presents to the country.
And the Shanghai government would surely like to and give a big freaking present to the Communist Party, and will certainly make sure it happens.

 

[humbaba]

Well, going out of business is exactly what happened to the majority of the tire manufacturers when they didn't switch to making radial tires soon enough. Firestone, Uniroyal, BFG--gone (brands owned by some other company now). Goodyear only survived because of their other products. Government has already bailed out the U.S. auto industry once. They are not going to be too keen on doing it again.

I wish that I shared your confidence. However, the motto has changed: "by the people corporations for the people corporations" seems more accurate when lobbyists literally write the text of the law (sure, it enters via a legislator, but the source has been shown on more than one occasion).

Even if there's a change in government there's still the "can't wreck the economy" line where "too big to fail" leads to "big government bailouts."

I'd love to be wrong.

 

[StealthP3D]

So does advertising lead to more Tesla sales or not?

Only if you have more product than you can sell. Tesla doesn't.

 

[humbaba]

Only if you have more product than you can sell. Tesla doesn't.

I think it can be more nuanced. There's also the matter of protecting sales of future production. I think the current free advertising from Taycan vs Plaid is more than handling that task.

 

[humbaba]

Whatever you do...do not look at a certain Stock price....or the NASDAQ

sorry, I looked

 

[StealthP3D]

I think it can be more nuanced. There's also the matter of protecting sales of future production. I think the current free advertising from Taycan vs Plaid is more than handling that task.

Paid advertising and creating publicity are two different things and have different effects on consumer's mindsets. People don't trust traditional advertising and Tesla gains street cred by not advertising. This cred is all lost the minute you see a TV ad or big billboard trying to convince you to buy a Tesla.