Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

The Philly climate protest is set for 11am very interested to see what kind of crowd shows up.

Edit: Q deliveries will range 76k-79k

 

[tschmidty]

Just to document the Tesla call of Gordon Johnson that got him fired from Vertical Group:



Gordon Johnson's Tesla call in all its glory:

"Vertical Group says Tesla running out of car buyers, cuts price target to $54"

"Tesla is running out of people who want to buy its cars, Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson tells investors in a research note following the company's Q1 deliveries report. Despite nearly fully exhausting its European backlog, opening up China to the Model 3, and "large/unexpected" price cuts across all U.S. models, Tesla's Q1 deliveries fell a record 31% quarter-over-quarter, Johnson says. Further, the analyst sees Tesla's 2019 deliveries coming in closer to 244,000 units, or down 0.4% relative to 2018, well below the company's guidance of 370,000-400,000 vehicles. He notes Tesla's unsold inventory "surged" 51% quarter-over-quarter to a record 18,879 cars in Q1. Johnson keeps a Sell rating on the Tesla and cut his price target for the shares to $54 from $72."​

The thing is, the Vertical Group was probably sitting on a valuable TSLA short position when he made that call - stock price was around $265.

But if the Vertical Group didn't take profits when TSLA bottomed at around $180 but relied on Johnson's flawed advice that the stock was slated for sub-$100, they might have doubled down on their bet at the bottom and lost big bucks in the bounce back.

That can get you fired apparently.

I really hope Morgan Stanley and their clients traded on Adam Jonas's "our TSLA bear case is $10" thesis.

So with Tesla having delivered 158,000 vehicles so far, that means we will only average 43,000 deliveries per quarter for Q3 and Q4.

So @Cirrus MS100D you are way optimistic on your guidance of 69,420! (I see what you did there).

 

[humbaba]

So with Tesla having delivered 158,000 vehicles so far, that means we will only average 43,000 deliveries per quarter for Q3 and Q4.

So @Cirrus MS100D you are way optimistic on your guidance of 69,420! (I see what you did there).

You are off slightly, overshot by 1,000 units. It will be 42,000.

 

[azaz]

Sanjay Shah out, going to Beyond Meat as COO.

good riddance, online only sales strategy was asinine.

 

[humbaba]

Sanjay Shah out, going to Beyond Meat as COO.

good riddance, online only sales strategy was asinine.

was he responsible for that? I don't recall, but what I'm seeing is he was in charge of Solar

Beyond Meat poaches Tesla's head of solar to be new operating chief

 

[Christine69420]

The Netherlands thanks Norway for all the Model 3’s.

You are welcome! We only care about SAAB cars these days:

Bruktbiler i Norge, Saab, Bil | FINN.no

And the last 3 quarters last months Tesla sold 5828, 3761 and 1431 Model 3s respectively. So before end of December 600 Model 3s will have to be returned to the stores to reach -600 sold.

 

[Nocturnal]

Just to document the Tesla call of Gordon Johnson that got him fired from Vertical Group:


That can get you fired apparently.

I really hope Morgan Stanley and their clients traded on Adam Jonas's "our TSLA bear case is $10" thesis.

Zero chance they did that, unfortunately.

There is another type of Missouri?

The bit where KC is doesn't fit that bill. ​

 

[mrmage]

What we have seen looks great. There is no lack of demand in China now that the 10% sales tax has been waived. But I'm not sure how Chinese demand matters much at this point because Tesla is able to sell all they can make in other markets. If you look at forums in the US, people want Model 3's that they can't even get.

And ASP data is looking strong too. Production indicators look good. Musk seems to be having fun and I can't imagine that if he thought the quarter was shaping up poorly. I sense he's looking forward to announcing not only great production and delivery but other achievements as well (such as reduced cost of goods sold, a reduction in warranty costs, etc). The only thing remaining is whether they can get the cars they've produced in customers hands by the end of the month. If they execute well on that front I think they are looking very strong. It looks to me like Tesla has more insight into what people in various markets around the world want (now that they have been selling in most areas for some months) and they have left the US somewhat starved of Model 3's so they can end the quarter on a strong note. Q3 and Q4 are historically strong months for cars in general.

I've been saying there won't be a lack of demand for the Model 3 for years and I've been saying it since May 2018 when I drove one for the first time. There is something about this car that makes most people who know it, want it. And hardly anyone "knows it" yet. You can't know it until you take it for a drive and less than 1 or 2% of the world's drivers have driven it yet. It's just started hitting most markets this year.

There never was any meat to the theory that Tesla was going to have a Model 3 demand problem and yet it was repeated so many times I'm sure plenty of people still believe it.

Indeed, the best indicator might be EM’s mood. No distractions, leaks, or drama other than occasional good, clean, fun (eg Taycan). It feels like the company is more grounded and focused than I’ve seen in awhile.

 

[Drax7]

Odd to see tesla down today.
Any new information

 

[trentbridge]

The Netherlands thanks Norway for all the Model 3’s. 294 deliveries yesterday. That makes 1035 so far this week and there will be a lot more happy new owners today and tomorrow. That comes on the back of 1401 deliveries last week. These weeks we are absorbing about 20% of Model 3 production.

The rest of Europe is down the drain though, so yeah, I expect about 80,000 total for Q3.

I think you have to acknowledge that the UK may take 4000+ Model 3s in Q3 (2082 in August alone) and this will offset some of the decline in the Continent numbers for Q3. And, to look in the opposite direction: Australia and New Zealand may account for a couple of thousand vehicles in Q3:

 

[stef]

Odd to see tesla down today.
Any new information

Max pain is $242.5

 

[shrspeedblade]

Odd to see tesla down today.
Any new information

I was wondering the same thing. No obvious FUD article like there usually is to accompany the MMD/ bear raid. Looks like they just want to pile on on a Friday to drive the price down further so if we do have a bounce after Q3 numbers come out it will only be up to the 260s or so.

It has happened late in the quarter in past quarters as well.

 

[kbM3]

The guy who posted his 40-minute commute in a Model 3 with the latest Version 10 software... has taken the video down.

I'm assuming he was contacted by Tesla and informed that attaching a weight to the steering wheel to avoid nagging is ungentlemanly and breaks the terms of the Autopilot software license. Pretty dumb too, IMO.

Nice day for TSLA, handily beating the NASDAQ. Tesla's "prowess reports" (GF3, Nurburgring/Plaid, IIHS etc. etc. etc.) plus the Deutsche Bank report should have had more effect if you ask me, but what do I know

In addition to violating the AP license, he violated the Early Access non-disclosure agreement. I’m personally shocked by how many agree they won’t publicize the software, and then just cavalierly break the agreement.

 

[Unpilot]

Max pain is $242.5

So your saying some "people" will try and move the price in a negative direction ...hmm.. interesting.

 

[eepic]

Just to document the Tesla call of Gordon Johnson that got him fired from Vertical Group:



Gordon Johnson's Tesla call in all its glory:

"Vertical Group says Tesla running out of car buyers, cuts price target to $54"

"Tesla is running out of people who want to buy its cars, Vertical Group analyst Gordon Johnson tells investors in a research note following the company's Q1 deliveries report. Despite nearly fully exhausting its European backlog, opening up China to the Model 3, and "large/unexpected" price cuts across all U.S. models, Tesla's Q1 deliveries fell a record 31% quarter-over-quarter, Johnson says. Further, the analyst sees Tesla's 2019 deliveries coming in closer to 244,000 units, or down 0.4% relative to 2018, well below the company's guidance of 370,000-400,000 vehicles. He notes Tesla's unsold inventory "surged" 51% quarter-over-quarter to a record 18,879 cars in Q1. Johnson keeps a Sell rating on the Tesla and cut his price target for the shares to $54 from $72."​

The thing is, the Vertical Group was probably sitting on a valuable TSLA short position when he made that call - stock price was around $265.

But if the Vertical Group didn't take profits when TSLA bottomed at around $180 but relied on Johnson's flawed advice that the stock was slated for sub-$100, they might have doubled down on their bet at the bottom and lost big bucks in the bounce back.

That can get you fired apparently.

I really hope Morgan Stanley and their clients traded on Adam Jonas's "our TSLA bear case is $10" thesis.

And that drop half an hour ago was at the same time this headline came out: *TESLA RATED NEW SELL AT GLJ RESEARCH, PT $44.52

And looking up GLJ Research's "CEO"?....... Gordon L Johnson

 

[StealthP3D]

Outside the US too! (sticks hand up in the air and waves it around!)

Based on your first sentence, I was going to rate your post funny.

Our deliveries aren't scheduled until freakin' Q1 :Þ

But based on your last sentence I have to rate it:

 

[mrmage]

I was wondering the same thing. No obvious FUD article like there usually is to accompany the MMD/ bear raid. Looks like they just want to pile on on a Friday to drive the price down further so if we do have a bounce after Q3 numbers come out it will only be up to the 260s or so.

It has happened late in the quarter in past quarters as well.

If you look at past intraday price, TSLA has a dip or two from 10am to 1pm ET almost every day. Most the days that will be the low. That’s the time I buy, and if I were ever to sell, it would be either beginning of day or towards end of day.

Point is, I never judge price this time of day.

 

[StealthP3D]

To anyone reading this thread who contributes estimates to FactSet: "AND IN CONCLUSION, WE'RE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT TESLA WILL ONLY DELIVER 81,3k CARS THIS QUARTER."

If those are the expectations, Tesla is going to have a blow-out quarter, only 10 days left.

You really have to hand it to those market manipulators as the current $242 is a great place to load up (As if $180ish wasn't)! Looking back at the one-year chart, I realize how lucky I was to be able to load up at $184 back in June because it certainly didn't stay there long. It was the day after my birthday so it was my post-birthday present to myself.

 

[Causalien]

I was wondering the same thing. No obvious FUD article like there usually is to accompany the MMD/ bear raid. Looks like they just want to pile on on a Friday to drive the price down further so if we do have a bounce after Q3 numbers come out it will only be up to the 260s or so.

It has happened late in the quarter in past quarters as well.

Quad witching day. OPEX max pain is king, no way it can escape the gravity of 4 different derivatives market.

 

[azaz]

was he responsible for that? I don't recall, but what I'm seeing is he was in charge of Solar

Beyond Meat poaches Tesla's head of solar to be new operating chief

yes, I mean Elon was as well for signing off on it but Shah became head of sales around the time of that move as well. It was widely reported at the time that he was assuming more and more sales responsibility and was considered a rising star in the company.

" Before joining Beyond Meat, Mr. Shah served as senior vice president of energy operations at Tesla, where he was responsible for the worldwide energy business and led the North America sales/services/delivery for automotive"

"One of the key people involved in implementing the online sales strategy is Sanjay Shah, who has taken on additional responsibilities since his arrival from Amazon.com Inc. last summer, the people said. He joined Tesla as senior vice president of energy operations and continues to oversee that business."