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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If you look at past intraday price, TSLA has a dip or two from 10am to 1pm ET almost every day. Most the days that will be the low. That’s the time I buy, and if I were ever to sell, it would be either beginning of day or towards end of day.

Point is, I never judge price this time of day.

I never judge the price without looking at a 5-year chart followed by a 1-year chart, followed by a 10-day chart. Intraday prices are all but meaningless at any time of the day. I've noted the pattern you mention but what I've learned about this kind of pattern is that such daily patterns only hold true until they don't. With respect to that pattern, I sense it's about to go away. The price manipulation is becoming more and more difficult. and that means it will need to enter a new phase (and result in significantly higher prices).
 
And if I extrapolate that further, in Q2 Total 53975 (say 54k) 3/S/X have been sold (and assuming delivered) in US, as per InsideEV Scorecard. If total deliveries were 95.2k, rest of world was 41.2k.

Those 41.2k were mostly delivered via RoRo and some were stock from Q1. Let's say 2.2k. So 39k delivered in Q2 via RoRo (arrival date) with loading time at SF 23.5 days. Makes 1.65k per loading day.....
Seems you should subtract Canada before calculating RoRo loading per day?
 
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Need one of these for the local Dog park
 

Again, proving it's a bipolar world and no offense taken, this is the opposite of what I intended in the original post. Trump is the dog pissing on everyone until there is a gusher of backlash similar to that depicted in Karen's find of a hydrant fighting back in a video. An ancient Greek philosopher must have first said: "Enough is enough." The first whistle blower.
 
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The Netherlands thanks Norway for all the Model 3’s. 294 deliveries yesterday. That makes 1035 so far this week and there will be a lot more happy new owners today and tomorrow. That comes on the back of 1401 deliveries last week. These weeks we are absorbing about 20% of Model 3 production.

The rest of Europe is down the drain though, so yeah, I expect about 80,000 total for Q3.
I wonder if this will continue like this in october in NL.
 
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Today is Triple Witching Day, the quarterly expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options. A few years ago one of the exchanges asked people to call it Quadruple in order to promote one of their new products. Many of us have ignored that request and continue with the traditional term Triple. Actually, any number could be applied as more trading products are invented. Those of us who are learned in literature and mythology are aware that witches would typically come in threes never fours.

Since a greater number of contracts expire on Triple Witching day than on an ordinary Friday, stock market volatility can be enhanced, especially into the close. Market makers and hedge funds overwhelmingly write (sell) rather than buy options. They will try to push a stock toward a price that will maximize the portion of options premiums they can keep, which maximizes the losses (pain) for retail options traders who are usually buyers.

According to Opricot, the Max Pain strike price for TSLA based on yesterday's close is $240: Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

The current Max Pain can actually fluctuate throughout a trading session. Right now a casual survey indicates that $240 is still TSLA Max Pain. That could change, and we may be able to make a better assessment during the final hour of trading. Let's also keep in mind that trading volume could affect the ability to successfully manipulate the share price.
 
Thank you for the link.

Sorting by 2019 model year then registration date yields:

August: 414
July: 308

June: 942
May: 435
April: 274

So registrations for the first 2 months are 722 Q3 vs 709 Q2. Q3 is actually slightly ahead of Q2. This is strong evidence against jaberwock's thesis of 20% lower US deliveries.
NY registrations are (mostly) valid for 2 years, and I'd expect APR/MAY to have more new 2018s sold than JUL/AUG. But I'd be wrong - both periods show 251 2018s registered. Assuming I did the query right, that is.
Not just a little wrong - to get that number, you need 10891 sales in September. Literally half of June.

Welcome to short fantasyland.
Only if you believe InsideEVs JUL/AUG numbers. Most shorts don't. That's probably wishful thinking on their part, but some did dig up state level registration data (TX, CO, NY and ???) to support their claim. InsideEVs has erred in the past, e.g. based on their counts they said Tesla passed the US FIT 200k threshold in May 2018. They also occasionally adjust numbers at EOQ. I remember telling them their Model 3 number for July 2018 looked low. I think they later bumped that one up. Conversely, their July 2019 estimate looks high to me.

All that said, InsideEVs estimates are not just "the only ones we have", but they've stood up quite well over time. Some here claimed they were way off in JAN/FEB this year, citing Alphahat's cell ping data which "proved" actual sales were 2x the InsideEVs estimate. But it was Alphahat that scurried off with their tail between their legs after Tesla's Q1 P&D report.
 
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NY registrations are (mostly) valid for 2 years, and I'd expect APR/MAY to have more new 2018s sold than JUL/AUG. But I'd be wrong - both periods show 251 2018s registered. Assuming I did the query right, that is.

Only if you believe InsideEVs JUL/AUG numbers. Most shorts don't. That's probably wishful thinking on their part, but some did dig up state level registration data (TX, CO, NY and ???)

The TX stuff is what's being pushed by that Covfefe Capital guy ;) Some computer program he wrote.

The NY numbers correspond with InsideEVs trends.

I'm not familiar with CO. I find no useful data on the TX and CO open datasets.

Re, InsideEVs and the 200k limit: they were just tallying up the official numbers from Tesla, plus (ultimately rather accurate) estimates for the month. But there were discrepancies in the numbers (not sure why, but numbers do get revised over time). I found it silly, the notion that Tesla would not push off tolling the limit until Q3 - and they did push it off - but I can't fault InsideEVs for just doing basic math.

As for end-of-quarter adjustments, whenever you're creating an estimate, you need to adjust EoQ for the actuals - obviously. What matters is if your numbers before that point were relatively accurate. InsideEVs generally is. Not perfect, but the best we've got.
 
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And that drop half an hour ago was at the same time this headline came out: *TESLA RATED NEW SELL AT GLJ RESEARCH, PT $44.52

And looking up GLJ Research's "CEO"?....... Gordon L Johnson

GLJ's press release: Gordon Johnson and James Bardowski Launch GLJ Research, Joining Analyst Hub’s Growing Roster of Affiliated Equity Research Analysts

Funny thing, there's already a different GLJ Research in Chicago. I'm sure they're going to be delighted to hear of Gordon's new firm.
 
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