Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

A small minority of the population decided to stop the proliferation of nuclear power. Now we have coal plants poisoning our people and destroying the environment. Hundreds of thousands killed and hundreds of billions lost. Ecoterrorism is a serious crime that deserves serious penalties.

In fairness, when Europe was almost depopulated for 1000+ years due to nuclear power, some terrorist/voters/normal/sane people became skeptical about the safety of nuclear as an option. When we’ve failed to create a disposal solution after 70 years of nuclear, some terrorists became skeptical of nuclear as an option and when nuclear coated more then coal to run, some were skeptical of nuclear as a solution.
How close was Japan from getting a lot worse? How many decades for cleanup? How many decades are left to cleanup nuclear west in eastern Washington state? I think the Washington cleanup has about 100 years to go, then just needs to be guarded for a few centuries.
Our country was founded by terrorists. Boston massacre was protesters being gunned down. When good people stop fighting stupidity and evil, we will be run by stupid evil people. Let’s hope that never happens ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[dc_h]

So you are saying that it is our job to increase Tesla share price?? IMHO this forum should enable discussion to make good, informed investment/trading choices. So learning things that influence where share price is headed is central to this. And sales numbers are important in that regard. If we´d say that sharing a positive sales estimate raises the bar for what´s reported, you can as well argue sharing a negative sentiment may drop stock price when it is picked up by the media. This leads the whole idea of a public forum discussion ad absurdum.

Not saying that Troys analysis is without errors - but at least he is trying hard to give his best estimates. Except for that, don´t forget that he is the architect of our European registrations wiki. I hate it when people start bashing others for mistakes they make in their work, while not adding any value themselves. Just my two cents.

Navin is just sharing common frustration that the Wall Street numbers are being fudged at the last minute to make it look like Tesla is missing guidance. Tesla is not popular among the chattering class on Wall Street and New York in general.
Lowballing estimates also became a joke in the thread.

 

[AlMc]

So you are saying that it is our job to increase Tesla share price?? IMHO this forum should enable discussion to make good, informed investment/trading choices. So learning things that influence where share price is headed is central to this. And sales numbers are important in that regard. If we´d say that sharing a positive sales estimate raises the bar for what´s reported, you can as well argue sharing a negative sentiment may drop stock price when it is picked up by the media. This leads the whole idea of a public forum discussion ad absurdum.

Not saying that Troys analysis is without errors - but at least he is trying hard to give his best estimates. Except for that, don´t forget that he is the architect of our European registrations wiki. I hate it when people start bashing others for mistakes they make in their work, while not adding any value themselves. Just my two cents.

If I could summarize what Navin was saying. (please correct me if I am wrong @Navin ): Many of the off hand estimates, and some of the more researched ones, tend to escalate, in number, as we get closer to actual production number disclosure by Tesla.

This is picked up by bears who 'hype' the numbers. Anything with 'Tesla or EM' gets quickly picked up by the media and turned into expectations. Usually these expectations are not endorsed or pushed by Tesla. So, when the real numbers come out it is construed as a 'miss' and the SP falls.

Sometimes there are legitimate 'misses' on numbers given as guidance by Tesla/EM........but many times the 'expectation hype' is solely generated by exuberant people here on TMC.

My summary: Let us not hype 100K as we will most likely be disappointed.

 

[KarenRei]

So you are saying that it is our job to increase Tesla share price?

Well, TSLAQ seems to think that it's their job to decrease the share price...

 

[sparcs]

Well, TSLAQ seems to think that it's their job to decrease the share price...

They take it seriously. There has also been some chatter on twitter regarding false complaints about Autopilot in the names of actual tesla owners to the NHTSA. The insinuation being that some of it is driven by the shorts.

 

[Fred42]

And even if you shut down Albertan production somehow (which pipeline protests won't do), it would just rise up somewhere else; oil is fungible.
The only way to kill oil, as a fuel source, is to kill consumption.

Like heroin. (but treat users, not kill or jail them)

 

[SW2Fiddler]

It all depends on context. On a Tesla forum M3 probably isn't a Bimmer. And MS probably not an illness. And MX probably not a multiplexer?

I know, right? I should have been clearer, the part of Reddit I described is literally the r/teslamotors subforum. There’s even a bot that chimes in, saying “Tesla M3 isn’t a thing.”

I see plenty of TM3s in my daily driving, there’s an M5 in my parking garage, (it’s a loud boi) but I have never seen a BM3 anywhere.

 

[EVNow]

Congratulations, Dennis - you're our TSLAQ Fraud of the Day (as well as having severe Munchausen syndrome)! Oh, and Washington Post? Check your freaking sources better next time. :Þ

Well, in their defense, would be the first guy from Medina who doesn't have enough money for a Tesla

Medina
City in Washington
Medina is a mostly residential city in Eastside, King County, Washington, United States. The city is on a peninsula in Lake Washington, on the opposite shore from Seattle, bordered by Clyde Hill and Hunts Point to the east and water on all other sides. The city's population was 2,969 at the 2010 census. Billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, along with a number of Microsoft executives, or other associates of Gates, have homes in Medina.​

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Jalopnik eats humble pie https://jalopnik.com/heres-what-happened-with-teslas-ambitious-first-attempt-1838221405

 

[printf42]

Weekend OT:
Cruise on Twitter

Cruise self-driving cars rely on tiled maps to maneuver San Francisco. These 2D maps are essential for geolocation requests, but use excessive RAM and require expensive Disk I/O operations to load map data. Our Product Eng team developed a solution:

This is why Tesla is so far ahead of everyone else on FSD.

In a Cruise meeting room a few years back:
Lead engineer(after first principle analysis): This won’t work...
A C suit: Would it work in one city though?
Lead engineer: I can try...

Cruise roadmaps hit the wire next day.

 

[KarenRei]

Weekend OT:
Cruise on Twitter

This is why Tesla is so far ahead of everyone else on FSD.

In a Cruise meeting room a few years back:
Lead engineer(after first principle analysis): This won’t work...
A C suit: Would it work in one city though?
Lead engineer: I can try...

Cruise roadmaps hit the wire next day.

I'm shaking my head reading that. They're talking about right-brain brute force optimization without any creativity.

I once made a program to fit geocoded maps of every single road in Iceland (including lots of road metadata, altitudes, etc) - gigs of raw data - into just a couple megs that could be rapidly loaded by a website and processed by Javascript. How? Rather than storing all of the points that define each road, I took advantage of the fact that the points on roads are not just random, but relative to the points that came before, and furthermore, curves on roads tend to just continue along. So I wrote a program to calculate optimal splines that could represent dozens or even hundreds of points that define a road, only switching splines whenever the deviation got too great to be represented with a single spline. Representing data as splines not only made it far smaller, but it made it easier for the client side to interpolate the roads to arbitrary resolution and with much greater speed than having to draw every single point.

In Cruise's case, it's not exactly the same thing (1d vs. 2d data), but the same sort of logic applies. Your dataset is too large to cache? Don't just try to come up with a way to crunch an awkwardly large dataset; look for a better way to represent your data.

 

[HG Wells]

Everybody needs VIN's !

New vins registered.
Tesla Registers 16,000 New Model 3 VINs, 100,000 Total In Q3


#Tesla registered 16,231 new #Model3 VINs. ~72% estimated to be dual motor. ~55% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 536788.

SEE
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter

• Total VINs: 536,788
• Total VINs (AWD): around 242,430 (45%)
• Total VINs (RWD): around 294,358 (55%)
  
• Total VINs (North America): close to 381,000 (71%)
  
• Total VINs (International): over 155,700 (29%)
  
• Total VINs (International, RHD): around 20,000 (3.7%)
• Production (by end of June 2019): 291,143 (54% of VINs)
• Sales (by end of June 2019): 276,353

NOTE: Must be fill in as I know someone who just got 535,340
Now where is that bottle of vino ?

 

[Causalien]

Weekend OT:
Cruise on Twitter

This is why Tesla is so far ahead of everyone else on FSD.

In a Cruise meeting room a few years back:
Lead engineer(after first principle analysis): This won’t work...
A C suit: Would it work in one city though?
Lead engineer: I can try...

Cruise roadmaps hit the wire next day.

Wow....
They just figured out what every other peon involved in an image processing related corp learned on month 1 of their training. These people are not 10 year behind on software, they are starting from scratch.

 

[HG Wells]

Wow....
They just figured out what every other peon involved in an image processing related corp learned on month 1 of their training. These people are not 10 year behind on software, they are starting from scratch.

Its always fun when you reinvent the wheel !

How many times have I had a EUREKA moment, only to discover its prior art.

 

[woof]

Its always fun when you reinvent the wheel !

How many times have I had a EUREKA moment, only to discover its prior art.

We used to joke there should be a rePatent office.

You do all the hard work and come up with a useful idea...there should be recognition for that effort...even if you didn't happen to be first to file.

 

[Buckminster]

I used to read this forum:
Dream car in 5 years, have electric cars changed things? - Page 1 - General Gassing - PistonHeads
The comments are not anti-Tesla. They emotionally connect to the car's engine noise...

 

[Artful Dodger]

if you have some recent article suggesting otherwise, I'd be interested in reading it.

This is recent:

Cook M. Alberta’s Oil Sands: An Unsecured Asset? An Analysis of the Mine Financial Security Program in Relation to Surface Mining of the Alberta Oil Sands. Alberta Law Review. 2018 Oct 9;56(1):177-205.​

Here's a PDF version from AlbertaLawReview.com and here are the last 2 lines from the extract of this 30 page report: (emphasis mine for relevance)

"The MFSP uses a method that does not account for large fluctuations in oil prices, nor does it sufficiently account for the risk of partial stranding. If asset stranding were to occur, the only way the Alberta government would be able to afford the costs of reclamation would be to paradoxically develop the very resource that was defaulted on, against the environmental legislation or political pressures that caused the stranding"
​

In short, Alberta taxpayers arent the only bag holders; so is a livable climate. Current Gov't policy will see them burn every last recoverable drop of bitumen rather than allow any stranded assests.

There are also some recent reports from the Pembina Institute, or this 2016 paper which has a broader focus: (includes sections on carbon pricing and the Paris Climate Accord)

Dixon EW, Saffery HA, Cummings CJ. Recent Regulatory and Legislative Developments of Interest to Energy Lawyers. Alta. L. Rev.. 2016;54:511.

[PDF] albertalawreview.com​

 

[Unpilot]

Jalopnik eats humble pie https://jalopnik.com/heres-what-happened-with-teslas-ambitious-first-attempt-1838221405

Kinda ...still all sorts of unproven stuff ....like the Tesla was stripped inside....while the Porsche was not.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

An alternative to electrek? Earlectrek - EV and Tesla News

If the writer’s name is Freddy Lampard, then it is genuine.

 

[Krugerrand]

Jalopnik eats humble pie https://jalopnik.com/heres-what-happened-with-teslas-ambitious-first-attempt-1838221405

Meh. That’s basically asking for forgiveness after doing something you know beforehand you shouldn’t have done. Up yours. Next time engage some ethics and step away from the keyboard until you’ve got all the facts.