No. All I see is the IMG text in square brackets that cannot be clicked on.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
No. All I see is the IMG text in square brackets that cannot be clicked on.
All eyes on the vehicles, meanwhile up the back stretch comes solar.
Who would-a-thunk. (We did).
Mine is lost in communications/technical hell, with nobody apparently able to make my solar order actually show up in my Tesla account, leaving me with no way to move forward.
Maybe you can get help from these folks... in case you haven't already seen it (not just powerwall stuff as the title implies). Arizona Powerwall Installs
You'll get lots of input there, and a better home for the topic.
I think Tesla Solar is getting overwhelmed right now. Plus it's a complex decision and I'm a total nerd with technology. They're still trying to sell as big a system as possible, and that's not always the smartest strategy if you want balance savings with comfort. Their workforce does not understand Electrical at all (mine anyway) which doesn't help.
I just want the cumulative profit from Q3 2019, Q4 2019, and Q1 2020 to be greater than the loss from Q2 2019(I think like 400 million). That would put Tesla on track for S&P inclusion in Q2 2020. The ASP so far this quarter has been pretty strong for the 3. Hard to know how much S/X has rebounded but the X is selling more than the S so that'll help ASP. No major price cuts this quarter so hopefully they were able to continue reduced costs while ASP stabilized or went up.
I'm thinking 105,000 deliveries. Hoping for 50-100 million this quarter. The credits both for US and Euro are hard to predict but the Euro ones should start kicking in more. Maybe we get a 200 million profitable quarter in Q4. Wild card will be Q1 2020. Hopefully they can be FSD feature complete by end of Q1 2020 so they can recognize majority of FSD revenue. If I'm not mistaken, they just have to be feature complete correct? They can still require driver attention while using features and still collect on all that deferred revenue correct? Someone feel to free to correct me if I'm wrong
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Ok, were you looking at it via mobile? I edited the post with better image links, are the images showing up for you now:
My two cents: today's TSLA trading has all the classic patterns of a TSLA bear raid so far:
- After triple witching day the derivatives force to set the TSLA stock price got significantly weaker, allowing the marking down (or up) of the price with much lower cost in terms of options market makers resisting against your move.
- There's been a marked uptick in social media Tesla FUD in recent days, with a well-coordinated selective leak of the plaintiff's side of the story for the Solar City lawsuit. The usual suspects jumped on it with big coordination. The false narrative has all the usual ingredients of the TSLAQ scam: "fraud", "SEC", "Musk" and "bankwuptcy".
- The NIO (near?) bankruptcy event that is unfolding, and the misleading "Tesla of China" characterization of NIO by the CNBC anchors who were pumping NIO for almost a year added fuel to the fire. I believe many retail shorts saw today's negative narrative as a confirmation of their Tesla bear thesis and wanted to take advantage of the 'high' TSLA prices to short some more.
- But retail longs are not selling TSLA, as approximated via Robinhood users holding:
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- As you can see in the rightmost tick that represents today's activity, Robinhood users are actually accumulating into this dip. There was slight selling of TSLA by about ~4% of Robinhood users in the recent rise from $220 levels to $245 levels in the past couple of weeks - but the response to today's dip was to buy. Millennial investors see through online propagated FUD with more skill and more experience than the average Wall Street investor ... For the record, the number of Robinhood TSLA holders is still near record levels.
- TSLA volume is still relatively low for such a price move, at slightly above the daily average which was low in recent weeks due to the annual summer doldrums, which suggests that institutional investors are probably not selling. (When they are selling they usually do so at once with 2x-3x the daily volume, with much of the volume early in the day - not spread out like it is today.)
- The volume chart shows typical patterns of shorts artificially marking down the price:
- See those red candles with high volume at temporary bottoms? These "spikes" (or "icicles" in @Papafox's daily charts thread) are characteristic of past bear raids: seemingly "dumb" trades hypothesized to come from short sellers, either market orders or sell limit orders with the limit price below the current market price, which aggressively punch through relatively thin order book to break through key resistance levels and to mark down the price - followed up by more subtle sell-limit orders to cap recoveries and bounce-backs. Note that this spikes are likely not leveraged longs covering, according to the Robinhood data.
- Macros are lousy: the NASDAQ index is -1.3% today, which created a -3% baseline drop according to typical beta correlations TSLA is showing intraday. If the shorts piled on just another -4% to create today's -7% to the current $222 daily low levels.
- The $250 levels TSLA was eyeing in recent weeks is probably a psychological one to the shorts they don't want TSLA to cross - and which they probably also define as a good ceiling to short against.
TL;DR: just another day in TSLA land as I see it, with the SEC asleep at the wheel.
Not advice.
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jgs
Active Member
You can also install the loop vertically. I have four 200' deep wells drilled alongside my driveway for this purpose.
No I'm on desktop - firefox browser. And still no images. Nor in Chrome - just checked.
I probably don't have access to wherever you linked. No biggie. Just wanted you to know.
anthonyj
Stonks
No worries, Tesla goes on a flash sale every third week of the month
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
This quarter does look good. All the overly optimistic projections in the past can't change that. You can go to any stock discussion board and find overly optimistic projections that were proven wrong. That doesn't mean this quarter isn't looking good. Of course, we only are outsiders trying to look in and are not privy to most of the real data. But I like that Musk appears to be happy and relaxed (which was not the case in any of the previous disappointing quarters). And, as @AlexS already mentioned, the thing we do have reasonable visibility into (ASP's) is looking good.
The thing is, when Tesla's production gets their *sugar* together and really kicks some production ass, we probably won't have any more visibility into it than we do right now. We won't know until the numbers are released. When that happens (increased production numbers causing improved financials), do you really think Mr. Market is going to wait while you load up at cheap prices?
Everything I've seen says that Tesla can sell every Model 3 they can produce. The end of quarter promotions we've seen are simply to clear out the sales channels more completely at the end of the quarter, not because there is any demand problem. Far from it. So all it takes for this thing to pop into a new trading range is an increase in production and the corresponding drop in the cost of each unit. Because the balance sheet is very sensitive to changes in production volume when increasing revenues are not associated with increases in labor and other relatively fixed costs. And with Musk in a new, more quiet mode we probably won't know about it until the numbers are released.
You can pretend to be as objective as you want but believing that some previous overly optimistic projections imply that all projections should be ignored if you want to remain objective is ridiculous. The facts we do have speak for themselves and I think the people who play this guessing game have toned down their expectations in response to previous disappointments. This, coupled with the low share price creates good opportunities to capitalize on. The end of the quarter happens in only 6 days.
Tesla bought into the Wall Street world with the May 2013 first round of Convertible Bonds that they sold in order to "pay off the DoE loan 9 years early". And by doing so, and by marking price points for convertibility of that and other converts, caused far more players to push the price up higher. So, if you want a high stock price - you must endure wall street market making. If you want a stock price based on enterprise value, profits and so on, understand that it would be lower than today.
I thought you meant to say they couldn't talk about it...What I meant is the Solar City legacy business and the financial ramifications of how Solar City did deals in the past. Definitely not saying that the solar side of Tesla is moot
Ulmo
Active Member
Watching sausage being made is gross. Looking at the result is more fun, but a cheap high. We have to learn to appreciate the work we have and appreciate improving upon that ourselves. Anything to get regulation out of the way and stop waiting for a King to deliver it to us will help.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Final attempt: does it show up for you now? (Sorry about this. Mods, feel free to delete this comment.)
Ulmo
Active Member
Re:
Uh, no. I always put myself in Elon's shoes (which is easy for me since he's the same age as me and grew up with similar desires and backgrounds for innovation and the prevailing resistances of the various ages of the times we went through) to understand his tweets: he likes the overall ramp up of the numbers. The prediction is just that: a prediction, and in that list directionally accurate. The rest speak for themselves. It has no content whatsoever of agreeing with the nearness of the prediction being accurate, merely the unpredicted ramp of history and the directionality of the future. It's a huge accomplishment from Elon. Of course he likes it. The tea leaves are that Tesla as a car company is still alive. That's all the tea leaves from that tweet say. And, besides liking that tweet, he and I predict it will continue to grow. (I have my ideas of how it could go faster, but that's another topic.)
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Nope. No worries. Some US sites block all Europeeans.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Sigh...I never would have invested my hard-earned money in the stock market if was I worried about every negative story in the financial press. I've been investing since the early 1990's and, in my experience, the market does really well when there are a lot of scary economic stories circulating and it crashes dramatically when everything is supposed to be all roses. So I stopped paying attention to all those scary-sounding stories and followed my instinct instead. That's worked for me.
My instinct tells me we are in the biggest bull market the world has ever seen and it's not a pyramid scheme, it's based upon increases in productivity, decreases in costs and technological innovations that create value. Sure, there will be stock market corrections along the way but anyone who tells you they can predict them with any accuracy is lying (or suffering from self-deception).
Tesla has to do so many things right to rally $20, and all it takes is a frivolous lawsuit to
Lose $20 . Very disturbing .
Lose $20 . Very disturbing .
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The weird thing is that these should be pure TMC hosted images, they are uploaded and attached.
I'm European too, and I can see the images from other devices as well, even when not logged in to TMC. Weird.
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