For those that think summon is impressive, keep in mind that this is probably the worst it is ever going to work. It will just get even better from here. That should make the other automakers more than a little nervous.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Sorted by color. Probably going to be aerial photography. I'm hoping it's a choreographed video that transforms from one thing to another.
Last year I wanted to see a video made at Bonneville Salt Flats with about 500 red, white and blue Model 3's, choreographed using special self-driving software, such that from a drone they formed an American flag gracefully waving in the wind, rolling furls and all.
Maybe since the Salt Flats are white they could do it with fewer blue and red cars (zero white ones).
Can't wait to see what they have in mind in Taiwan!
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jhm
Well-Known Member
Some studies have used hours of labor per unit to measure cost. Good point that depreciation costs per unit need not apply because that is an accounting rule that generally levels the cost per unit out arbitrarily.
I do suspect that by 100k units the process is mature enough to apply this, since doubling per quarter is not dropping quite as fast as before. But again it needs to be applied to an appropriate measure of marginal cost. COGS is maybe not the best metric.
Additionally, quarterly metrics are maybe not so stable to see the kind of trend implied in the learning curve. That is the measurements may be too granular, too noisy.
So I would not be thinking one should use this to predict quarterly results. I would caution people not to be trading on this idea. Rather think longer term. How much will the cost per Model 3 declined from 2019 to 2020?
jhm
Well-Known Member
Bring back the nose cone! Shiny stainless steel ones!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You seem a little chicken.
It's worse than that. Those who constantly believe the sky is falling never have any big wins. They play everything safe and boring. You can bet they were not accumulating AAPL in 2005 or AMZN in the same time frame. I really regret not buying AMZN when they losing tons of money every quarter and every analyst was like WTF with the "high" share price?
I did buy MSFT when most analysts said it was a good company with good prospects but it was trading at a multiple too high for any reasonable person to seriously consider it. It performed spectacularly. So I sold it all and bought QCOM at a time when 9 out of 10 analysts said their technology was all hype, the wireless data networks would crash under load. That went up 36 fold in one year. SBUX was simply a "fad", yadda, yadda. After the stock has had most of its gains, every analyst loves it, LOL! I sell shortly after that.
If you want big results, never listen to the Chicken Littles, use your own head and follow your gut. Imagine if Musk had listened to all the Chicken Littles!
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Datapoint of 1:
While out on my land today, I found myself seriously contemplating buying FSD. I did ultimately come to my senses, but: I'm a person who wasn't even going to buy EAP (before it became included). FSD was right out. And I'm quite financially constrained, having a shortfall for my home construction. And even still, I found myself seriously contemplating FSD, after seeing all of the summon videos. It's such a harbinger of the future; parking lots are hard, and yet enhanced summon appears to be doing them amazingly well. If they can handle parking lots this well, with the first public release of the software, without using HW3 capabilities... just think of how things are going to be a year from now, using the power of HW3.
Multiply my case times everyone who turned down FSD previously.
I think they're going to get a lot of FSD upgrades out of this. Which are 100% pure profit. Plus, of course, a higher take rate in Q4 (so long as they don't correspondingly raise the price).
While out on my land today, I found myself seriously contemplating buying FSD. I did ultimately come to my senses, but: I'm a person who wasn't even going to buy EAP (before it became included). FSD was right out. And I'm quite financially constrained, having a shortfall for my home construction. And even still, I found myself seriously contemplating FSD, after seeing all of the summon videos. It's such a harbinger of the future; parking lots are hard, and yet enhanced summon appears to be doing them amazingly well. If they can handle parking lots this well, with the first public release of the software, without using HW3 capabilities... just think of how things are going to be a year from now, using the power of HW3.
Multiply my case times everyone who turned down FSD previously.
I think they're going to get a lot of FSD upgrades out of this. Which are 100% pure profit. Plus, of course, a higher take rate in Q4 (so long as they don't correspondingly raise the price).
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I thought Murphy's Law with regard to stock trading was that whichever stock you decide to sell will go on an incredible unbelievable run and everyone and their brother wants some for their own portfolio. Because you sold it to buy a "safe" stock.
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pyromatter
Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
The point of the learning curve is to overcome Murphy's Law. As you double cumulative production, you have twice as much opportunity for anything that can go wrong to actually go wrong. And you eventually gain enough experience to learn how avoid things going wrong. This may well push you to improve process in ways that are both more cost effective and more reliable.
Superchargers at the Phase 2 site?
That must be a parking lot... possibly including loading for outbound vehicles. Interesting, I was expecting the battery plant to be there.
That must be a parking lot... possibly including loading for outbound vehicles. Interesting, I was expecting the battery plant to be there.
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I know some people pulled the trigger on FSD solely just to have the software update earlier. It was pretty smart to include this perk for FSD owners.
I had zero plan getting FSD and skipped on EAP. But just had to get it when it was on fire sale because as a shareholder we need to test these things ourselves vs listening to the FUD.
I spent a good amount of time trying to convince someone that the car will slow down and stop for cars that are stationary previously having no knowledge moving. People are convinced Tesla will only recognize a car as a car if it knew the car was once moving, because motion is needed for radar detection and the camera has very short range, incapable of stoping the car in time over 25-30mph. They think this is the reason for Tesla's running into stationary cars from the FUD reports. I know for a fact that it's capable of slowing and stopping while traveling at 50mph+.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Which law? In the fifties at MIT we were taught analysis too.
The V10 update is getting rolled out in Canada today, but doesn't include Smart Summon. It took a long time to get regular Summon after it was released in the US, so wouldn't expect it anytime soon for Canadians. Will be interesting to see what European countries get it and when.
V10 in Canada - what will it come with?
V10 in Canada - what will it come with?
Dreadnought
Member
Every FSD license sold for $6000 is one lost to be sold at $120,000. That's why Elon announced price increments linked to additional features being released. The next step to 7k got delayed together with V10 but will soon follow. I hope that take rates remain flat until "feature complete" justifies a much higher license fee.
There's a new 'Come to me' button on the app that activates smart Summon if you hold it down, without going through the two summons screens. That's the only difference I have noticed so far. They pushed this out pretty quickly after 32.10, but I didn't have any issues with that version.
I know that's the claim, but I don't buy it. They can sell "personal use only" FSD at an affordable rate, with both legal and technological restrictions to ensure that it's not used as a robotaxi. Indeed, Elon suggested something not far off from this during the autonomy day (e.g. he mentioned that they might limit private individuals to some small number of robotaxis rather than letting them operate as many as they wanted)
But the grade of worst is beyond disappointing.
Rant. If you don't want to hear FUD, skip reading further.
I think Elon scored an own goal by releasing this version.
First of all, the name. Enhanced. It is not even working. To me enhanced means something better than a working version. Added features to basic functionality.
Second. how many fender benders happened in just 24 hours with limited number of updates and tests? Not only shows the state of the software, but it will also clog up the service departments / body shops / parts supply. And owners pay for Elon's live product tests.
Third. It is ignoring the law of traffic and pretty slow.
Fourth. I have little kids. I do pay attention to them. But someone else at some point will miss a second.
Rant ends.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Smart. Smart Summon.
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