Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Double dog disagree, so there!

What do you think the overlap is between Tesla owners and Netflix/Hulu subscribers? Netflix has 150 Million subscribers so roughly half the US population, not including shared subscriptions (my wife and I share one like many people)? How many cars are capable of Tesla Theater (MCU2 only), 600,000? What percentage does not have Netflix already? 5%? 10%? 50%? Let assume 50% as a ridiculously high number and also assume Netflix is available in every market that has Model 3s and every car is updated to V10 now. So 300,000 Tesla owners that don't have Netflix. Let's assume 100% of them get Netflix just because they can stream it in the car.

So 300,000 new subscribers. Netflix added 9,000,000 new subscribers in Q1. So with all that, Netflix would increase it's new subscriber base by 3%.Reduce any number (50% existing owners without Netflix, 100% of whom subscribe just cause) and that drops precipitously. I personally think it is definitely less than 10% of Tesla owners that don't also have Netflix and of that 10% I think it is definitely less than 10% that would subscribe now that they can stream it in their car. So that's what, 60 new subscribers?

Exactly! That would be huge if Netflix increased their subscriber base by 3% all at once (in addition to whatever they would have done). It would be a very visible bump in a world that is data-driven. Smaller bumps would be less visible (but visible none-the-less).

 

[Nocturnal]

Just a warning to the Tesla SCs. Please stock up on screens and steering wheel covers. Cuphead is going to cause more than a few rage punches.

Disagree. It's not how many people are streaming Netflix or Hulu at any given time - what's relevant is how many people become new subscribers so they COULD stream Netflix or Hulu if they wanted to. I suspect there will be a visible boost in subscribers for both of these services (also Spotify).

Even if the subscriber adds are a relatively small number, they will be a sudden addition to whatever trends were already in place so they should be visible.

Definitely. People like me who have only had streaming TV for a decade sometimes forget this but there are many people still using regular old TV. Granted Tesla owners are more likely to be in the streaming category, but I'd wager there are a ton who still don't have Netflix. It's also worth noting that Hulu can be used for free so that's a very low barrier.

Personally, I just dumped Amazon music for Spotify, just for connectivity in my car. I used Spotify for several years and slowly transitioned to Amazon for reasons I don't recall but now I'm back.

 

[Tim S]

I know this is not really the right thread for this question, but I looked around and couldn't find an appropriate one. So, I have a Sept 2018 built M3 LR AWD with EAP and FSD. Yesterday I got V10 update 2019.32.11 bac8c51. Some features seem to work and others don't. Karaoke is fine but I don't have an entertainment Icon nor do I have advanced summon. Any ideas why not? Thanks.

Try updating the Tesla app on your phone.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Welp so much for buyers coming in before the numbers are released. It may change tomorrow but if volume is going to be this low today and tomorrow, bears and shorts will easily be able to drop this to 235 area. Then when Tesla releases numbers of 100k+, the stock will rally 3-4%.......and still be under 250/share.

I'm still insanely bitter about last week. To me, last week was right up their as one of the shadiest trading days for Tesla ever. I'd even rank it as the top considering the "reason" for the drop, even though Tesla has dropped more percentage wise in the past.

 

[tschmidty]

Exactly! That would be huge if Netflix increased their subscriber base by 3% all at once (in addition to whatever they would have done). It would be a very visible bump in a world that is data-driven. Smaller bumps would be less visible (but visible none-the-less).

You didn't read what I wrote. I said they would increase their NEW subscribers for one quarter by 3%, it would increase their total subscribers by 0.2%. Which is not insignificant, but that is also with the ridiculous assumptions that 50% of all Tesla owners don't currently have Netflix and that 100% of them subscribed just because they can watch it in their car.

For kicks I created a straw poll here: Netflix Subscriptions

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Welp so much for buyers coming in before the numbers are released. It may change tomorrow but if volume is going to be this low today and tomorrow, bears and shorts will easily be able to drop this to 235 area. Then when Tesla releases numbers of 100k+, the stock will rally 3-4%.......and still be under 250/share.

I'm still insanely bitter about last week. To me, last week was right up their as one of the shadiest trading days for Tesla ever. I'd even rank it as the top considering the "reason" for the drop, even though Tesla has dropped more percentage wise in the past.

Agreed. its absolutely flat out criminal and insane how badly this stock is manipulated. However, you can push a stock down in the short term, but there looks to be zero chance of any liquidity issues or bankruptcy fears for tesla at any stage now. In other words...success is pretty much guaranteed. It might not be this quarter, or this year, but as the charts showing EV sales of Tesla versus other companies get ever more ridiculous, it becomes almost impossible to deny its a bargain stock.

I hate the fact that I got suckered into some short term options plays with TSLA, because it cost me dear, but have zero fears about my 1,000 ish long term shares. The chances that the stock does not get back to 340+ in my mind is zero. the chances that it doesn't hit $500 is very, very low.

You can only wave your hands *this much* in front of a steady stream of happy owners driving model 3s (and soon Ys) up and down the street before investors start seeing through the crap.

 

[Nocturnal]

Welp so much for buyers coming in before the numbers are released. It may change tomorrow but if volume is going to be this low today and tomorrow, bears and shorts will easily be able to drop this to 235 area. Then when Tesla releases numbers of 100k+, the stock will rally 3-4%.......and still be under 250/share.

I'm still insanely bitter about last week. To me, last week was right up their as one of the shadiest trading days for Tesla ever. I'd even rank it as the top considering the "reason" for the drop, even though Tesla has dropped more percentage wise in the past.

That might be preferable. SP has typically ticked up steadily before each call or event only to tumble. If we aren't ticking up this time then maybe that's a good sign?

You didn't read what I wrote. I said they would increase their NEW subscribers for one quarter by 3%, it would increase their total subscribers by 0.2%. Which is not insignificant, but that is also with the ridiculous assumptions that 50% of all Tesla owners don't currently have Netflix and that 100% of them subscribed just because they can watch it in their car.

For kicks I created a straw poll here: Netflix Subscriptions

Surely will slowly increase as Teslas become more mainstream and are purchased by the less techie consumers though. ​

 

[madodel]

Just a warning to the Tesla SCs. Please stock up on screens and steering wheel covers. Cuphead is going to cause more than a few rage punches.

Definitely. People like me who have only had streaming TV for a decade sometimes forget this but there are many people still using regular old TV. Granted Tesla owners are more likely to be in the streaming category, but I'd wager there are a ton who still don't have Netflix. It's also worth noting that Hulu can be used for free so that's a very low barrier.

Personally, I just dumped Amazon music for Spotify, just for connectivity in my car. I used Spotify for several years and slowly transitioned to Amazon for reasons I don't recall but now I'm back.

This is not about today's subscribers to Netflix or Spotify. It is about the ongoing future that many Tesla detractors always ignore. It will get even more young people to aspire to owning a Tesla. And those who buy a Tesla going forward who don't already have Netflix or Spotify will consider getting a subscription. Win-win for all involved. In a few years many will not know what over the air TV stations are. Tesla is ready for that. None of the other brands has a clue about this but then many if not most of those won't be around anymore either.

 

[KSilver2000]

Elon had once said that MCU1 owners would be able to purchase an MCU2. Any updates on this? Of course he has said such things before (ie, P90D 100kwh battery upgrade,of which only a few if any, were done).

Musk replied to a tweet in June that MCU1 could be upgraded to MCU2. But, nothing yet, from reading online of owners’ experiences with needing to replace bad MCU recently. And, I don’t know what MCU2 retrofits will cost, but replacing MCU1 with another MCU1 out of warranty apparently costs almost $3,000. So, not sure whether it would be worthwhile for many people at that price.

 

[Mike117]

When will the Delivery report be released? Does it make sense to buy some call options expiring this week?

 

[KSilver2000]

You didn't read what I wrote. I said they would increase their NEW subscribers for one quarter by 3%, it would increase their total subscribers by 0.2%. Which is not insignificant, but that is also with the ridiculous assumptions that 50% of all Tesla owners don't currently have Netflix and that 100% of them subscribed just because they can watch it in their car.

For kicks I created a straw poll here: Netflix Subscriptions

And assuming that each of those new Tesla drivers are paying for their own sub, and not sharing an account with others.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That might be preferable. SP has typically ticked up steadily before each call or event only to tumble. If we aren't ticking up this time then maybe that's a good sign?

Surely will slowly increase as Teslas become more mainstream and are purchased by the less techie consumers though. ​

I would hope so but who knows. Stock might drop on great numbers anyways.

I am amazed though at the lack of buyers since Q1. Tesla has fixed a lot of the logistics and the Elon tweeting since then and it's been proven that battery production was the limiting issue for Q1, not demand for Model 3. I would have expected smart money to be pilling in throughout sept in anticipation for Q3 results at the beginning and mid point of October.....but there's been little interest. I would have to imagine smart money easily sees through the reporting bias on Tesla and can see the potential value and how Tesla is realizing that value. I said it before but......it's not rocket science

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I would have expected smart money to be pilling in

me too...but time and time again we see that most of the 'money' is far from smart. Just look at the valuation of Uber (lol) or WeWork(ha!) or snapchat (snort!) to see just how delusional so-called 'professional' investors are.

 

[Tslynk67]

When will the Delivery report be released? Does it make sense to buy some call options expiring this week?

TBH, it never makes sense to buy $TSLA call options - it's a sure-fire way to lose your money.

But, if you're prepared for that then sure, why not! I do too, but it's more for entertainment than any belief I'll make anything on them.

 

[Nocturnal]

This is not about today's subscribers to Netflix or Spotify. It is about the ongoing future that many Tesla detractors always ignore. It will get even more young people to aspire to owning a Tesla. And those who buy a Tesla going forward who don't already have Netflix or Spotify will consider getting a subscription. Win-win for all involved. In a few years many will not know what over the air TV stations are. Tesla is ready for that. None of the other brands has a clue about this but then many if not most of those won't be around anymore either.

"no longer a car, but a software platform, just like your phone is longer a phone"

And assuming that each of those new Tesla drivers are paying for their own sub, and not sharing an account with others.

Netflix doesn't seem to mind that. I assume they just want to be everyone's default video platform and are ok with people stealing service while that growth is happening. ​

 

[StealthP3D]

When will the Delivery report be released? Does it make sense to buy some call options expiring this week?

I like the 10/4/2019 $250's for only $1.87!

 

[DrMazeppa]

Unfortunately, this seems a case of: show me the profits and I'll give you my money.
Big investors do not care about tech, or incredible products. Only money. And given that even great products may fail, it is less risky to wait for the profits before jumping in. Fast second is good enough for big investors I guess.

Ah, and investors know this is a heavily manipulated stock (look at today's SP...). So 'what I said above'^2.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Looks like my assumption of 235/share before the numbers release was an understatement. They might drag it down to 230 before the numbers. Stock would need to go up 8-9% just to get to 250/share. Unbelievable. Record deliveries, V10 release...guess it doesn't matter

 

[StealthP3D]

TBH, it never makes sense to buy $TSLA call options - it's a sure-fire way to lose you money.

But, if you're prepared for that then sure, why not! I do too, but it's more for entertainment than any belief I'll make anything on them.

I never invest in anything unless I'm prepared to lose it all. And I also don't invest in anything unless I like the risk/reward ratio. Unless it's just a "fun" bet for small amounts.

TSLA call options (in general) have performed very poorly over recent history but, when that changes, some people will get very rich on them.

 

[acoste]

I have not found this to be the case at all lately.

I'm more amazed how good it is at this point.

I trust

AP keeping lane + Human monitoring

more than

Human keeping lane

Quoting Elon:

“One of the common misimpressions is that when there is, say, a serious accident on Autopilot, people for some reason think that –- or some of the articles think that it’s because the driver thought the car was fully autonomous and it wasn’t, and we somehow misled them into thinking it was fully autonomous,” Musk told investors. “It is the opposite case. When there is a serious accident, almost always –- in fact, maybe always, the case that it is an experienced user and the issue is more one of complacency. Like, they get too used to it.”


Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

copying from the article above

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throx Ars Scholae Palatinae
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The attention problem is well known in engineering. It is very hard to get a human to concentrate on something that will turn up good more than 99% of the time, even when there's serious or fatal consequences of failure. Trains are the classic example - tracks are amost always clear, signals are almost always correct which means you have to devise all sorts of systems to keep the driver alert.

The TSA has similar issues (among its many), where almost all passengers are not carrying contraband. They use systems that deliberately plant false images, or have red teams that try to run the checkpoints to theoretically keep the inspectors from just blindly passing anything.

One system I was personally involved in gave green traffic signals to trams approaching intersections well over 99% of the time, but the tram company became extremely worried about tram drivers driving through intersections on red just because they were so well trained to assume green. Solutions being discussed involved things even to the point of deliberately deoptimising to give reds more often, just to force the attention.

Ultimately, a professional engineer *will* be held partially responsible if they design a HMI that doesn't take into account operator attention behaviour. It's a risk factor you have to measure and account for and you can't straight up blame the operator if you aren't adequately covering the inattention risk.