Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[keydiver]

Agreed. its absolutely flat out criminal and insane how badly this stock is manipulated. However, you can push a stock down in the short term, but there looks to be zero chance of any liquidity issues or bankruptcy fears for tesla at any stage now.

I agree, BUT, where is all this FUD coming from today about "Tesla Revenue stalling out"? Even Yahoo Finance has bought into the Business Insider FUD. It looks like a concerted group effort to drive the SP down before the earnings report.

 

[Hock1]

Looks like my assumption of 235/share before the numbers release was an understatement. They might drag it down to 230 before the numbers. Stock would need to go up 8-9% just to get to 250/share. Unbelievable. Record deliveries, V10 release...guess it doesn't matter

You best believe it. If a few people on an internet chat board are on to the fact that TSLA is "owned" by the manipulators, surely the "smart money" is aware also. IMO, they will not be in, in force, until the thieves are gone. What will precipitate that event, I have no clue.

 

[Mike117]

I like the 10/4/2019 $250's for only $1.87!

Just bought 5 of those for 1.70$

 

[Unpilot]

looks like the mirror image of NASDAQ only inverted.

 

[acoste]

Could you make this post any FUDdier if you tried? I especially like the part where you imply physical violence towards Tesla owners is likely, that was a nice touch.

Good work soldier, keep it up.

Not sure if you have seen this video: Enhanced Summon, where are you?

 

[Nocturnal]

Unfortunately, this seems a case of: show me the profits and I'll give you my money.
Big investors do not care about tech, or incredible products. Only money. And given that even great products may fail, it is less risky to wait for the profits before jumping in. Fast second is good enough for big investors I guess.

Ah, and investors know this is a heavily manipulated stock (look at today's SP...). So 'what I said above'^2.

Like most humans, analysts are more willing to forgo gaining something than to risk losing something. They would rather play it safe and just beat the market than take the risk and gain in a big way.

 

[Tslynk67]

I never invest in anything unless I'm prepared to lose it all. And I also don't invest in anything unless I like the risk/reward ratio. Unless it's just a "fun" bet for small amounts.

TSLA call options (in general) have performed very poorly over recent history but, when that changes, some people will get very rich on them.

True - which is why I have 10 Jan 2021's, I think they're a reasonably safe bet compared to second-guessing weekly volatility.

I mean the delivery report - I think we can all be assured it's likely a record quarter, but with 100k being kicked around the park, if they come with 99.999 will be touted as a "miss".

You know how it goes...

Safer bet might be playing the earnings - CNBC show -50c as the expectation, I think they'll beat that myself.

Of course the expectation will mysteriously rise in the coming days/weeks to ensure disappointment...

 

[KSilver2000]

"no longer a car, but a software platform, just like your phone is longer a phone"

Netflix doesn't seem to mind that. I assume they just want to be everyone's default video platform and are ok with people stealing service while that growth is happening. ​

Totally they don’t mind for now. Industry analysts estimate there’s an additional 20-40% of viewers who are not paying for Netflix, Hulu, Spotify, Amazon, etc.
I was just emphasizing the point that all these additional MCU2 Tesla owners do not make much difference to Netflix’s revenue growth.

Looks like my assumption of 235/share before the numbers release was an understatement. They might drag it down to 230 before the numbers. Stock would need to go up 8-9% just to get to 250/share. Unbelievable. Record deliveries, V10 release...guess it doesn't matter

Then you should buy more shares during this opportunity if you have such strong convictions.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You best believe it. If a few people on an internet chat board are on to the fact that TSLA is "owned" by the manipulators, surely the "smart money" is aware also. IMO, they will not be in, in force, until the thieves are gone. What will precipitate that event, I have no clue.

To me, S&P inclusion could be a catalyst. There's a very large amount of money sitting out there that won't invest in anything other than S&P indexed stocks. Then again, Amazon didn't need S&P inclusion to break free of it's shorts and start it's 10 year rally.

 

[KSilver2000]

True - which is why I have 10 Jan 2021's, I think they're a reasonably safe bet compared to second-guessing weekly volatility.

I mean the delivery report - I think we can all be assured it's likely a record quarter, but with 100k being kicked around the park, if they come with 99.999 will be touted as a "miss".

You know how it goes...

Safer bet might be playing the earnings - CNBC show -50c as the expectation, I think they'll beat that myself.

Of course the expectation will mysteriously rise in the coming days/weeks to ensure disappointment...

Even if they get above delivery guidance, SP will still take a hit if they don’t surprise upwards with financial targets just like last Q.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Totally they don’t mind for now. Industry analysts estimate there’s an additional 20-40% of viewers who are not paying for Netflix, Hulu, Spotify, Amazon, etc.
I was just emphasizing the point that all these additional MCU2 Tesla owners do not make much difference to Netflix’s revenue growth.



Then you should buy more shares during this opportunity if you have such strong convictions.

As with a bunch of other investors here...….I'm tapped at this point. I've been accumulating for nearly 2 straight years on a consistent quarterly(sometimes monthly) basis. The 2 years of accumulation has quadrupled my original investment from 5 years ago.

 

[StealthP3D]

You best believe it. If a few people on an internet chat board are on to the fact that TSLA is "owned" by the manipulators, surely the "smart money" is aware also. IMO, they will not be in, in force, until the thieves are gone. What will precipitate that event, I have no clue.

This is a very good point and one I mostly agree with. Nobody knows when or exactly what will cause the manipulators to capitulate but it is always when their story is no longer tenable to the broader investor base. Musk knows this and it is apparent he has given up playing the game in favor of putting TSLA's nose to the grindstone and showing the world what they can do. I like what I'm seeing a lot.

It's my opinion that it will not necessarily take profitability to achieve capitulation as long as there are good margins on the cars and the numbers keep going up. It's also possible the capitulation will only be partial, ie. at a new higher price they will step back into the game. But the fact that they are manipulated is not, in and of itself, a reason not to invest. Because the effect of the manipulation is that you can pick up TSLA shares right now at a very good price. Manipulators can only do so much and they have likely been more effective recently (after two questionable quarters) than they will be able to be in the future (assuming Tesla continues to perform). So now is not a bad time to invest.

 

[Nocturnal]

To me, S&P inclusion could be a catalyst. There's a very large amount of money sitting out there that won't invest in anything other than S&P indexed stocks. Then again, Amazon didn't need S&P inclusion to break free of it's shorts and start it's 10 year rally.

Just look at how much money is traded solely in Index funds consisting of just the S&P 500. That alone would be an amazing boost.

So now is not a bad time to invest.

It's good for us because we don't have to explain short term paper losses to anyone, but fund managers do. I can certainly see some of them being overly cautious. ​

 

[viridi]

It is unbelievable how speculative rumors from analysts who are consistently wrong drive down the price of TSLA on a good macro day and when there is otherwise no negative news on the stock. Amazing how analysts basically have an unfettered ability to make baseless statements without any oversight from the SEC.

 

[JusRelax]

It's good for us because we don't have to explain short term paper losses to anyone,

You must not be married.

 

[StealthP3D]

Even if they get above delivery guidance, SP will still take a hit if they don’t surprise upwards with financial targets just like last Q.

All the tea leaves are pointing to a nice surprise on all the important financial metrics. But, yeah, they have to show continuous improvement in cost of goods sold and margins. Just showing the trend is going in the right direction is huge because they already have positive margins.

I've said this before but it bears repeating, Musk seems extraordinarily relaxed and comfortable in his own skin. I would not under-estimate the importance of this.

 

[Cherry Wine]

It is unbelievable how speculative rumors from analysts who are consistently wrong drive down the price of TSLA on a good macro day and when there is otherwise no negative news on the stock. Amazing how analysts basically have an unfettered ability to make baseless statements without any oversight from the SEC.

Algos and willing participants can start a feedback loop.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Trying to put in an order on E-trade for my bimonthly, piddling amount of stocks. However, it appears to be down, as I can't load it from either my work computer, nor my cell phone.

Anyone else having this issue?

Well, got it to work.

Stock immediately started to drop after, as is typical whenever I buy some more.

My bad.

 

[StealthP3D]

It is unbelievable how speculative rumors from analysts who are consistently wrong drive down the price of TSLA on a good macro day and when there is otherwise no negative news on the stock.

Obviously, if you're looking to sell, that's bad. But if you're looking to buy, it's a gift.

Because time is the great equalizer.

 

[Curt Renz]

Looks like my assumption of 235/share before the numbers release was an understatement. They might drag it down to 230 before the numbers. Stock would need to go up 8-9% just to get to 250/share. Unbelievable. Record deliveries, V10 release...guess it doesn't matter

Trading volume in TSLA is low today, which implies that the share price drop is not due to institutional selling. However the low volume does ease the job for manipulators. By pushing down the share price, they would hope to scare weak longs out of their positions and to encourage fresh shorting ahead of Tesla's report of quarterly delivery numbers. As soon as the manipulators have accomplished that mission, they likely will quickly cover their shorts and perhaps go long.

In my opinion, focus on quarterly delivery numbers can be misleading. Sights should be directed longer term regarding the likelihood of the eventual dominance in transportation by autonomous electric vehicles in general and Tesla in particular.

EDIT: As noted by @madodel, today is Jewish New Year, which would explain the light trading volume, not only in TSLA, but also in the overall market.

Years ago in this video, Jim Cramer explained how manipulation is accomplished: