Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[davecolene0606]

The fact that anyone is listening to a ranting 16 year old is silly. Hey, are we still talking about TSLA?

Not listening to her, listening to the science.

“Do not listen to me, listen to the science” - Greta Thunberg

Fire Away!

 

[KarenRei]

The fact that anyone is listening to a ranting 16 year old is silly. Hey, are we still talking about TSLA?

Sorry, back on topic about TSLA.

TuScoLA: Police are still cleaning two derailed train cars after a recent accident: Two train cars derailed in Tuscola County community

TriSuLA: The North Korean missile test makes clear that Shiva may to bear her trident (trisula) upon the world and destroy the three planes of existence.

ouTSLAng: Yass gonna be freaken amazeballs watching that on fleek dude pwned YOLO kthxbae!

TarSaLiA: Ray Lewis was forced to drop out of Dancing With the Stars recently due to injuries to one or more of his tarsalia.

TeSseLlA: Nick Draper, senior project manager at Tessella, sees a lot of potential in the new MANTiD AI framework for analysis of neutron scattering and muon experiments.

TiSkiLwA: According to new census data, the town of Tiskilwa, Illinois saw more residents between ages 35 and 44 in 2017.

Just wait until we get news about tonsillar tumors in tusculan anti-solar antislavs!!

 

[wipster]

This number came to me in a dream last night: 103,022

Wonder what it means?

 

[MountainRatMat]

From looking at the charts of the final week in the past few months, I’m failing to see how this week is noticeably different.

I sure hope Tesla delivers clearly over 100,000. Otherwise, with the negative macro, this stock may drop big down to 210-220 IMO.

Buying opportunity

 

[KarenRei]

This number came to me in a dream last night: 103,022

Wonder what it means?

Funny, I dreamed last night that the I-Pace line had to be idled because inventory levels had grown too large.

 

[abasile]

I was making a general statement, since it is a common misconception that we must choose between protecting the environment and economic growth. Who knows what Greta actually believes about economics. I would not expect even a bright 16 year old to have all of this figured out. Those actually in power, and the “experts” they listen to, are the ones who really need to figure things out, with help from us as voters of course.

She didn't say that.

Greta was putting down the focus on business as usual, that is economic growth at all costs, without regard to whether we are making our only home literally unfit for human habitation. It's foolhardy to put economic growth above quality of life.

She never said all economic growth was evil, only that which harmed us.

Get with the program! I mean she's not that hard to understand, she's only 16 years old!

 

[bhtooefr]

Do they not sell the 500e in Italy?

Apparently, as of now, only in Verona and Bolzano: CONTATTI e disponibilità auto - 500e.it
I've never seen one, and don't even know if they actually sold them.

It looks like that's a dealer importing used US-market 500es?

The outgoing 500e was a ZEV compliance car for, I believe, California and Oregon only, built in Mexico. (And, as I understand, Chrysler was responsible for the electric conversion.)

The next generation will have an electric version built in Italy, and actually sold in the European market, instead.

(However, still talking about a small city car, so it won't be much of a threat to Tesla, and I suspect won't offset much of the FCA European fleet CO2, so it won't even reduce payments to Tesla by much.)

 

[wipster]

Funny, I dreamed last night that the I-Pace line had to be idled because inventory levels had grown too large.

What a world we live in where Karen is able to read my dream in Iceland and send us hers in less than 30 seconds after I posted it!

P.s., I think your dream is probably coming true!

 

[acoste]

Autoblog is only now reporting on the car Carrier fire that was hauling tesla in Nevada last week.. seams like they were saving it to try to use at a more impactful time.. this FUD use is gross.

Ed: i don't put links to FUD they don't deserve it.

^^ is the FUD. speculating on something with no basis.

Insideevs reported it today as well 5 hours before Autoblog.

 

[KSilver2000]

^^ is the FUD. speculating on something with no basis.

Insideevs reported it today as well 5 hours before Autoblog.

Obviously, InsideEVs is a FUD website, too, then.
/s

 

[kbM3]

Sigh. This isn't on topic. But I have to remind y'all that the NN is being built to input TWO CONSECUTIVE FRAMES from each camera, not one. This adds (among other things) a vector of motion to moving objects.
Has everyone just forgotten that? -Don't answer. There's a Robotaxi thread or seven for that.

I respectfully disagree. This is a general Tesla discussion thread. For those with a long term investment viewpoint, the new acquisition is a MAJOR topic suitable for discussion over this time period.

It may be that it gets bogged down into an argument over technical merits, but it certainly is on topic in the short run and should only be diverted into a sub-thread when that happens.

This is no longer just a market/what’s going on with the stock price/what happens in the short run thread.

 

[Zaxxon]

Just to follow up on my post from Monday regarding the under-the-hood improvements in V10, here's a good video demonstrating how it all adds up to make Navigate on Autopilot significantly better in this release.

And yes, I think this is really investment-related. Everyone's focusing on the new shiny with Smart Summon, while these improvements have a far greater impact on the usability of the vehicle on Autopilot, and they serve as important data demonstrating Tesla's continued pace of improvement on Autopilot functionality.

It's also interesting to me that we're seeing various basic fails of Smart Summon, which is about where NoA was last year at debut. Here we are around a year later and NoA is pretty reliable, even if it's not always as smooth as shown in the video. Perhaps that's a hint of how Smart Summon will progress from here.

 

[Skryll]

Obviously, InsideEVs is a FUD website, too, then.
/s

InsideEVs.com is the largest independent electric vehicle content website in the US and was acquired by Motorsport Network in February 2017. [according to first google hit Motorsport Network - Wikipediahttps://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Motorsport_Network]

 

[M3Rider]

"All you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!...You say you hear us and that you understand the urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am, I do not want to believe that. Because if you really understood the situation and still kept on failing to act, then you would be evil".

All's I'm saying, she doesn't need to convince you or me or anyone reading and writing on this forum. She needs to convince the mass of global society, the political centre ground, and work with capitalism not against it. Her language, message and demeanour is totally counterproductive to that goal.

And outside of the bubble in the wider world, I can tell you that she's coming across very badly indeed with the people that are yet to be persuaded. I know it will make me unpopular for saying so. Oh well. We've got Q3 P&D to look forward to today. That's real action on solving the problem and turning the tide of opinion.

The thing is, civil and moderate discussion did not work for dozens of years. What's she's doing sounds more agressive, but that might be exactly what's needed to open some ears. I see no harm in trying something different.

I disagree. Elon is definitely one of the leading practical solvers of climate change with his push for EVs. Arguably solar panel and wind turbine manufacturers have done more in terms of removing co2 from the atmosphere with the reduction in fossil power generation.
...

What I wanted to add is that
1. there's more positive effect to what Elon is accomplishing, specifically battery storage for cheaper renewable energy displaces not only dirty fuel sources, but also extremely harmful byproducts of their production, such as:
- methane released into the air by mining operations(coal, fracking) and methane has 80x greenhouse effect compared to CO2
- oil refineries release very toxic compounds into the air
2. There are more sources of air pollution that we are haven't begun to consider how to fix.
Example - #1 stationary source of FPM in Denver is a landfill site (#2 stationary is oil refinery)

This is a very interesting article for CO residents about our sources of air pollution:
What Are Colorado’s Biggest Sources of Air Pollution?

Note the oil refinery in the middle of the city:

The refinery releases an estimated 14.1 tons of hydrogen cyanide gas into the air annually, a test conducted last year showed. As reported by the Denver Post’s Bruce Finley this week, Suncor has requested an amendment to its state air-quality permit that would allow that figure to rise to nearly 20 tons. Hydrogen cyanide is a toxic gas that was deployed as a chemical weapon in World War I and used in gas chambers in Nazi Germany.

 

[Curt Renz]

The popular averages keep diving to new lows of the day. TSLA while still down, keeps perking up nicely from its low.

Currently

--1.8% COMP (Nasdaq Composite)

Detroit Automakers & Tesla

--4.3% GM
--4.3% F
--1.7% FCAU
--0.9% TSLA

 

[Unpilot]

Buy Rating on Yahoo?!?!

Tesla stock gets buy nod from Exane BNP Paribas

 

[Pezpunk]

"All you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!...You say you hear us and that you understand the urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am, I do not want to believe that. Because if you really understood the situation and still kept on failing to act, then you would be evil".

All's I'm saying, she doesn't need to convince you or me or anyone reading and writing on this forum. She needs to convince the mass of global society, the political centre ground, and work with capitalism not against it. Her language, message and demeanour is totally counterproductive to that endeavor.

No, it’s not. Changing minds does not work the way most people think it does.

No human, no creature on earth in fact, has ever changed when they were comfortable. You want an ass to move, you don’t stroke its ears. You poke it with a stick.

 

[Antares Nebula]

S/X are a different story, down close to 50% in Q3 with S being hit harder. Model X was down 40%+, though, which is a big change from Q2 in the US. Raven doesn't seemed to have helped. I see global S/X sales of 16k in Q3, plus/minus a few hundred.

Don't tell that to the uberbulls here.

Also from InsideEVs report:

"For September, we estimate the following for U.S. sales of these two Teslas:

Tesla Model S - 1,100
Tesla Model X - 1,675

"At 1,100, the Model S is up just a bit from our estimated 1,050 in August. Meanwhile, at 1,675, the Model X is down compared to our estimated 1,825 in August. The September figures for both of these Teslas are much lower than expected. In September 2018, the S had an estimated 3,750 deliveries in the U.S., while the X saw 3,975 estimated U.S. deliveries."

Assuming InsideEVs (and Troy's 15k S,X) estimate is accurate, not only are S,X sales down YoY (from 27k Q3 2018), but also QoQ, after having increased from 12k to 17k from Q1 to Q2 this year. M3 cannibalization is not sufficient to explain this much of a drop off IMO, given that S,X sales should, all things being equal, continue its upward trajectory as EV market penetration grows YoY. At the least, S,X sales should be 20k, given that it was averaging 27k in Q3 and Q4 2018. A ~15k print would indicate a serious dislocation in sales. (Again, we can reserve final judgement when the deliveries report comes out.)

A large part of this IMO is due to the lack of a full refresh, bringing S,X to the level of the 3 in all respects (particularly battery tech). Raven, while indeed a major upgrade, apparently may not be sufficient to motivate enough customers (I know many disagree, so I'm not here to engage in another round of arguments on this point).

But also a large part of the problem may have been all the rumors of a major refresh percolating in the past year, causing customers to delay their purchases. The Raven release combined with Elon/Tesla downplaying all the S,X refresh rumors appeared to have mitigated this significantly, as Q2 results and early Q3 orders have shown.

But now it seems the momentum is lost again, and we may have a sudden drop off in September sales. What explains this? Could it be due to the S,X plaid powertrain tweet in early September by Elon? At the time, I pointed out (to much disagreement here) that this may have been an impulsive reaction to the Taycan Nurburgring lap time and a marketing misstep, undoing months of repair by Elon and Tesla in downplaying all the S,X refresh rumors that have been percolating in the past year. Now, once again, a major refresh (powertrain, chasis, and interior) may be playing in the minds of customers and adversely affecting S,X sales in the interim.

Maybe, maybe not. After a heated debate here at TMC, I concluded that further argument is pointless and that the only true arbiter would be near future S,X sales. This arbitration may now be coming to pass and much sooner than expected.

In summary, I believe S,X sales are hurting due to the lack of a full upgrade, making S,X true flagships in all respects, and also possibly due to the revitalized awareness among customers of an impending S,X refresh, resulting from Elon's early September tweet on the plaid powertrains.

I'm not here to rehash the same arguments, but only to place them within the context of these new Q3 S,X sales estimates. If today's delivery report proves Troy's and InsideEVs estimates wrong, and sales come closer to 20k, I will issue a mea culpa. And for the record I'm an uberbull too (isn't everybody here?), just more critical than others I suppose.

 

[KarenRei]

^^ is the FUD. speculating on something with no basis.

Insideevs reported it today as well 5 hours before Autoblog.

Yes, from that Ruffo guy at InsideEVs, who is an endless source of anti-Tesla FUD, and I am continually baffled as to why InsideEVs gives him platform. His favourites are paint and rust FUD (anecdotes rather than statistics, of course, the exact same sort of thing you can find googling the same for other brands), where he constantly cites Joni from Finland, that guy suing Telsa who helps TSLAQ troll on Twitter and continuously makes false claims about how Tesla paint thickness compares to other brands.

 

[acoste]

Yes, from that Ruffo guy at InsideEVs, who is an endless source of anti-Tesla FUD, and I am continually baffled as to why InsideEVs gives him platform. His favourites are paint and rust FUD (anecdotes rather than statistics, of course, the exact same sort of thing you can find googling the same for other brands), where he constantly cites Joni from Finland, that guy suing Telsa who helps TSLAQ troll on Twitter and continuously makes false claims about how Tesla paint thickness compares to other brands.

Any particular article you are referring to? Gustavo Henrique Ruffo Profile | InsideEVs