Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[acoste]

Anecdotal comments are worthless.

If you clicked, there is a video inside. Blindness is your choice though.

 

[acoste]

All of @KarenRei ’s references were FUD.
The F does not stand for Fake or False. Just sayin’

If FUD is a true story, what's wrong with it?

 

[StealthP3D]

I would not expect even a bright 16 year old to have all of this figured out. Those actually in power, and the “experts” they listen to, are the ones who really need to figure things out, with help from us as voters of course.

So now you are parroting exactly what Greta said but taking credit for it yourself?

 

[willow_hiller]

If FUD is a true story, what's wrong with it?

Articles (or forum posts) meant to elicit fear, uncertainty, or doubt for the purposes of slowing the adoption of EV technology are FUD. They may have a kernel of truth, but most are unnecessarily sensationalized and explicitly targeted at Tesla.

Easiest way to identify FUD is to ask yourself "would this article be written about any other vehicle?"

Every vehicle gets in parking-lot fender benders, has occasional paint issues, is susceptible to rust, can burn, etc.

 

[M3Rider]

S,X sales in Q3 and Q4 2018 were 27k average. Assume some YoY increase due to EV market penetration trends, say at least 30k. If Q3 comes in at ~15k, do you believe that an approx 50 percent drop can be explained by M3 cannibalization? I think it is unlikely, but without more hard granular data on customers purchase intentions, I suppose it is hard to say.

It's not just cannibalization, people who used to buy 75D (weren't these 50% of S/X sales?) can no longer afford their only option of 100D and are forced into 3. It's not their choice, it is by design.

 

[ggr]

i straight up do not buy this. If it were true, they'd 1) be delivering primarily Performance models, 2) not pulling demand levers all the time and 3) selling way more S/X cars.

You mean that they are saying "We're production constrained, so let's reduce the number of models so that we become demand constrained"? They actually do do that, by discontinuing short range models of the more expensive cars, and reducing the number of options, and (as Musk has said) anti-selling. But they do it carefully, trying to reach balance.

 

[StealthP3D]

If FUD is a true story, what's wrong with it?

If you have to ask, then you probably shouldn't trust yourself to invest your own money.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

If FUD is a true story, what's wrong with it?

When it's used to convey something as being far worse then it statistically or factually is.

For example, news report on Tesla fires, but not any other car catching on fire. It's mean to great a perception that Tesla cars are unsafe and catch on fire all the time when it is statistically untrue. Tesla cars statistically on average catch fire less then gas cars. But those articles will never mention that point.

 

[EVNow]

If Q3 comes in at ~15k, do you believe that an approx 50 percent drop can be explained by M3 cannibalization? I think it is unlikely, but without more hard granular data on customers purchase intentions, I suppose it is hard to say.

Why ? Afterall the cannibalization would only account for ~ 15% of Model 3 sales.

 

[acoste]

Easiest way to identify FUD is to ask yourself "would this article be written about any other vehicle?"

Ok. I like this definition.

However EV space is small and new, they write about every little thing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

SpaceX is about to test their space ship. He's taking a huge step in the Mars mission, I think Tesla is soon to be in the rear-view camera for him.

Once Model Y, pickup and semi are released there's not much left to do on the automotive side other than expand. I expect Elon to move on from the CEO role and jump back in the chairman's seat once the SEC nonsense ban has passed in 18 months. Exciting times.

Musk seems pretty dedicated to robotaxi. That may be the last accomplishment on his personal surface transportation to-do list.

 

[EVNow]

If FUD is a true story, what's wrong with it?

Because someone can pick & choose what they want to push a story. They are not reporting a story - they are pushing a narrative (often false).

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Ok. I like this definition.

However EV space is small and new, they write about every little thing.

Disagree. Tesla gets all the press. If something happens to a Chevy Bolt or BMW I3 it won't make mainstream news.

 

[riverFox]

Just got a follow up email from Bloomberg/Tom Randall regarding the Model 3 survey. Now they want first impressions of the v10 software release.

 

[acoste]

Disagree. Tesla gets all the press. If something happens to a Chevy Bolt or BMW I3 it won't make mainstream news.

You are complaining about something which is good for Tesla. They don't spend money on marketing, but they managed to be in the news all the time. These news are the reason why the brand name got such a high valuation.

 

[204EV]

I thought we weren’t going to rehash this?

Tesla chose to withdraw the 75D. It was ~60-75% of S sales.

They will have lower Model S sales.

Maybe they make more margin on a loaded 3 than a base S so they want the cannibalization. Just a thought. /Shrug

 

[Antares Nebula]

Great post, if I may add-

1. The Model S design has been around for 7 years, its been the face of Tesla for four of those seven years, In car years, that's old (even the Euro makers have seven year design time frames). Could it be the "market" wants something new? Buying a car is mostly an emotional one, not rational, start looking stale and there goes the emotion.

2. Are the rumors of a new gen Model S based on the 3 platform real? Would definitely yield higher efficiencies in production, higher profit margin per unit. However, that is a lot of cash to spend on a shrinking segment or niche segment. From the looks of the "plaid", it will be the seven........errrrrr......eight year old Model S platform with new motors and interior. But may be the smarter move money wise. But will it be enough to garner the market's attention?

This is an interesting question. Personally, I like the S design. It's probably my favorite (save maybe the Roadster). I was merely arguing for powertrain and other "tech" upgrades. But is seven years of the same design getting long in the tooth? Do customers want something new looking? Some surely do. I'm more of a substance guy, and will get the S over the Taycan, in spite of the newness of the latter. But, as others here have pointed out, many who can afford these higher end cars are also concerned about looks and novelty, and they may buy a Taycan simply for that reason (everybody has a Tesla these days, but nobody has a Taycan).

Now, will Tesla actually do something new with the design, in addition to the guts? Hard to say. Elon did say new chasis, but that doesn't necessarily indicate a significantly new design. But it could. I sometimes wonder whether that plaid model S we saw wearing the familiar Model S skin was actually a camouflage. and that Franz is got some slick new design he's working on. I do believe that if Tesla did come out with a new S design, sales would be higher than merely stuffing new guts into the same old design, as this is generally true with most other cars that have been around for a similar lifetime.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

How much fun is a tractor pull when the gas and diesel tractors don't stand a chance against the electric ones?



I guess that's possible that some people will want that. Mostly a few old men that can't let go and that don't care about others. But judging by the low number of freaks still shooting photographic film, I expect that number to be really low.

A little perspective is perhaps in order here. Those of us that understand the benefits of EVs and realize that the future is electric are often quick to blow off or ridicule the arguments of the ICE public. I will put it this way, I was a total gearhead not too long ago. I loved the auto ownership experience. Changing my own oil, getting my hands dirty, and maintaining my own machine was truly a joyful experience. I rebuilt, from the ground up, two different ICE classics. It was tremendously gratifying to take every nut and bolt off the car and put it back better than new. There is a pride of ownership that goes into the maintenance of your own ride and many many folks see EVs as a threat to that experience. In some ways they are TOO good. TOO reliable. TOO maintenance free. They kind of cut to the core of what a great number of people feel is there joy in life. To these people, EVs are going to be a tough sell.

I think if we can keep this in mind in our dealings with the public, I think it will go a long way towards acceptance and adoption. An easier path towards adoption means Tesla stock comes around quicker.

Win/Win

Dan

 

[StealthP3D]

i straight up do not buy this. If it were true, they'd 1) be delivering primarily Performance models, 2) not pulling demand levers all the time and 3) selling way more S/X cars.

My claim was it's meaningless to compare U.S. deliveries in isolation because Tesla ships worldwide and they can only make so many cars. This means some regions are going to come up shorter than others because the deliveries are "lumpy" in terms of timing and numbers and it's impossible to ship the correct amount of cars, with the correct mix of options/colors, to every market every time.

Musk made a very good point many months ago. He said investors should only look at the numbers produced because they are production constrained, not demand constrained. That said, I'm looking at numbers delivered (worldwide) because it's the best indication we have going into earnings as to how well production went. They can't sell cars they didn't make.

Tesla is holding up exceptionally well relative to the broader market. And my long term TSLA calls, Jan 2021 $690 are up today, all very good signs about investor sentiment.

 

[Dutchie]

It looks like the pipeline was also flushed in The Netherlands: just 6 Model 3 deliveries yesterday. But expecting really big things in the last two months of the year.*

* Besides us moving to our new climate neutral house.

Spoke to my mother yesterday. She said there was a very negative story on TV about Tesla on Monday, especially about the service. Hope that doesn't affect sales too much in the Netherlands.