Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

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Wow, I guess this means that failure rate is pretty low or we would have heard all about it from the FUDsters.

But this also means that some of you are overdoing it. Come on, just NA, only HW 2, 2.5, 3, only FSD, and some of us are not doing it.
That's like 5-10 summons per person in a few days?

 

[KarenRei]

See Germany in your Model 3?
See Inverness in your Model S?
See Middlesex in your Model X?
See Wikieup in your Tesla Pickup?
See lots of cacti from your Tesla Semi?

See Planet Nine in your Falcon 9?
See a Klingon warship in your SpaceX Starship?

See Mole People's regime from your TBC tunneling machine?

See the hive mind think with your Neuralink?

 

[ggr]

So approximate 104K in Q4 to hit 360K annual.

So if Fremont just repeats its performance, and GF3 can produce 7,000 cars in 90 days, and a shorter logistics chain, it would seem to be possible ;-).

 

[acoste]

Elon Musk on Twitter
"Over 550,000 Tesla Smart Summon uses in first few days!"

It's official: your odds of any one of the negative Smart Summon cases reported in the first few days (what, 1-2 fender benders**, at least one of which was the other car's fault?) happening to you when you use Smart Summon is roughly equivalent to your odds of being struck by lightning in an entire year.

** - Plus those that didn't get reported on social media. But let's get real, the lion's share of the population posts on social media these days.

Let's get real. Does this say anything about the number of errors this 'smart' summon has made? Nope. How many of those 550k tests had hits, near hits, driving towards a pedestrian, driving over curb, holding up people, confusing traffic, incomplete mission?

NO BETA VERSIONS ON THE ROAD! OK?

 

[Pras]

God. Earlier this year, I bought a quarter million dollar's worth of TSLA Jan21. It's down to 5 digits now. I keep waiting for it to recover, but it just doesn't seem to be capable of doing so. I have no idea what to do now. I do plan on rolling it over to Jan22s eventually, but doing so is akin to de-levering, and I don't feel great about de-levering while the SP is low.

I was watching an old youtube video about old people crying about losing a large chunk of their savings during the recession. What's funny is that the highest number given was only 1/3 of what I've lost so far this year.

I have a million worth with an average of 290. I am sure there are more like us. So remain patient, we will see the reward one day. So far Tesla is doing exactly what it has said. This is very impressive given Elon is not a sandbagger.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Are you REALLY that naive?

Implying that you think it was an intentional leak. Okay, let's follow this thread. What, exactly, is the incentive, for leaking that goal? To run the SP up for a week before it comes crashing back down if the goal isn't hit? Or to cause a run-up followed by stagnation if the number is barely met?

I am not seeing the reasoning here, but please enlighten me.

 

[AlexS]

Hang it up and see what tomorrow brings

Probably big selloff in the morning to 220-225 range, then some buyers step in, I probably will also add some. and then I don't wanna see chart before earning report

 

[M3Rider]

So if Fremont just repeats its performance, and GF3 can produce 7,000 cars in 90 days, and a shorter logistics chain, it would seem to be possible ;-).

@Fact Checking please debunk the rosy expectations of the moderator. Something something to do with glass?

 

[KarenRei]

Let's get real. Does this say anything of the number of errors this 'smart' summon has made? Nope. How many of those 550k tests had hits, near hits, driving towards a pedestrian, driving over curb, holding up people, confusing traffic, incomplete mission?

NO BETA VERSIONS ON THE ROAD! OK?

Your original argument:

• Premise: There exist anecdotes of bad Smart Summon cases
• Conclusion: Smart Summon is dangerous

Your logic to back up your premise, after it was undercut by the sheer magnitude of Smart Summons conducted in the first few days:

• Premise: Smart Summon is dangerous
• Conclusion: There must be vastly more bad Smart Summon cases out there which, for some reason despite our age of social media, nobody has heard of.

You're begging the question now. Your supporting premise is your initial conclusion.

 

[Reinhard]

If Q3 was 10,000, how much demand are we expecting from China in Q4?

 

[mongo]

Not to imply anything about anyone's option prowess, there are a couple threads with potentially useful info:
Advanced TSLA Options Trading
And
Newbie Options Trading

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well that's a mediocre result. Good, borderline great in reality, but not the fun 106k I was hoping for. Excited to hear the earnings call and the cheap 2021 LEAPs between now and then.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So are we gonna hit 360k for the year? That's really all that matters. What if G3 does a quick 5k in December? That would be cool.

 

[Jayjs20]

Well that's two people who assumed I don't know what I poured a quarter million dollars into. Do we see three.

 

[Tim S]

Wow, I guess this means that failure rate is pretty low or we would have heard all about it from the FUDsters.

But this also means that some of you are overdoing it. Come on, just NA, only HW 2, 2.5, 3, and some of us are not doing it.
That's like 5-10 summons per person in a few days?

Yup, I tried it about 10 times . No crashes but I did stop it early a couple times because I was nervous about other parked cars close by.

 

[Steve m]

@Fact Checking please debunk the rosy expectations of the moderator. Something something to do with glass?

For the model 3
Q2 tesla made on average of 5,579 per week
Q3 tesla made an average of 6,141 per week

An increase of 562 per week.

Increasing production by 359 per week
Would be a production of 6,500 per week or 84500 for the quarter.

Adding 16,000 model S and X would bring total Fremont production to 100,500

GF3 then only needs to produce 500 a week for 10 weeks for the grand total to ne 105,500.

Since the average M3 production was 6,141 per week for Q3 and that production has been increasing that Tesla is already above 6,141 per week maybe by at least 200.

Time well tell.

 

[Tim S]

I recall it being accepted as dogma on this thread and being attacked with religious ferocity if you thought differently.

e.g. we don't need advertising Tesla can sell all they can make
e.g we don't need a refresh Tesla can sell all they can make

Q3: Model S/X produced 16,318, delivered 17,400.

They sold MORE than they made.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

God. Earlier this year, I bought a quarter million dollar's worth of TSLA Jan21. It's down to 5 digits now. I keep waiting for it to recover, but it just doesn't seem to be capable of doing so. I have no idea what to do now. I do plan on rolling it over to Jan22s eventually, but doing so is akin to de-levering, and I don't feel great about de-levering while the SP is low.

I was watching an old youtube video about old people crying about losing a large chunk of their savings during the recession. What's funny is that the highest number given was only 1/3 of what I've lost so far this year.

Here's an idea. Sell it all and put it in Nio. I hear they are going to break out any minute.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Well that's two people who assumed I don't know what I poured a quarter million dollars into. Do we see three.

Why are you obsessed with telling everyone...repeatedly, how much money you spent?

Dan

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So CNBC has 3Q "analyst concensus" as 99k. I don't doubt that is the figure from today. Is there any way to see what it was 3-5 weeks ago? I bet "analyst concensus" in August was something like 88k.