And that is why Elon shut it down. That isn't how it was intended to be used.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
And that is why Elon shut it down. That isn't how it was intended to be used.
We aren't talking peanuts... Cars of the same model have a range of options. Saying in general that there is sufficient demand ignores that individual buyers will have specific options in mind for a given price. Now maybe a specific buyer would be willing to accept a variation if the price was right.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
You seem to not understand how AI requires big data. No beta versions on the road means you will never see full self driving. This is why Waymo, Uber, and the rest will probably never get there in a reasonable time with general autonomous driving outside of specific geofenced areas.
Sometimes you have to take slightly larger short-term risks to achieve much greater long-term safety. Generalized FSD will never come unless you release it to the masses and iterate with data.
It’s a reasonable risk that, used responsibly, can be perfectly safe and has immense long-term benefits to society.
Was it because Elon didn’t intend for it to be like this? Or people who just missed out on the deal complained loudly online? Even after he stopped it, buyers were still being given one option comped, just not two.
And it’s not a new incentive tactic. It’s been done before in the exact same method without being shut down.
Are you saying that anyone investing in tsla should be prepared to lose it? This is worse FUD than AJ's $10 price target.
Interesting look at rarely available Li-ion cell cost data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF):
Vladimir Grinshpun on Twitter
Vladimir Grinshpun on Twitter
I can say my ~10 times of using it had none of those. And given the fact that the couple of times those did happen were all reported on as national news, it’s probably safe to say those were about it.
Anybody investing in any single company should be prepared to lose it. There are possible scenarios completely out of anyone’s control that can sink a company or it’s stock.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I think it means that we all know that TSLA is not a stable stock, with manipulations and everything else. If someone short-term places their rent onto such a stock, then the FUDsters turn the stock down, they have lost money.
My personal feelings is that TSLA is at a current, perfect long-term investment spot. Tesla is not going away, it's growing. Investing now, when the stock is sub $300, is a gift to my future self. But I am most certainly not betting money I couldn't lose.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
GAAP doesn't care about list price or discount. The actual sale price (minus warranty reserve, etc.) goes into the Automotive Sales Revenue line and the actual COGS goes into Cost of Automotive Sales. It doesn't matter if a Model S Performance they sell for 99k was once listed for 135k or not.
COGS travel with the car. In Q1 they decided some of their older inventory cars (including demo/loaners with miles on them) would sell for LESS than the associated COGS. They thus had to write COGS for those cars down to the estimated sale price. That writedown depressed Q1 gross margin and the sale of those cars during Q2 (and maybe even Q3) at roughly zero margin dragged Q2's gross margin down. These effects weren't huge, but they did move the needle.
No way. He was playing options which is a different beast entirely. You SHOULD be fully prepared to lose it all on options
You should edit so as not to come off as hostile towards Fred. I 100% agree with you but have had multiple comments deleted for being mean to him
I'm aware of the neural networks.
I just disagree with the path Elon chose. I have already quoted this article here: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago and this is why I disagree with him. Are you ok to take the risk? The difficult part comes now. When the autopilot gets very good, peoples' attention gets lost. Elon said this himself as well, he is aware of it.
He also could have made his strategy safer. One issue is the driver's awareness monitoring that can be tricked. And he could have added more sensors for redundancy. He is also rushing things which generates bugs, less time for verification.
Yes, I understand that the other route is longer. But not much. And a lot safer. The number of robotaxis increases over time and collect enough miles to have them implemented in other cars.
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Even when the retrofit becomes available, I doubt many people would upgrade at current pricing, which is about $3,000 for a failed MCU out of warranty. That’s a lotta dough just to watch Netflix or YouTube, or play a limited number of games, on a bigger screen than your phone or tablet.
Great! Create your own car company, produce even better cars!
Singer3000
Member
Regarding Model 3 production rate.
-----------------------
2018 Q4
Production: 61,394
Weekly average: 4,723
Seq Growth: 15%
Letter (20 Jan 2019):
In our Fremont facility, we are now past the steep portion of the production S-curve, and we expect our production rate to continue to gradually improve. Every part of the Model 3 production process has demonstrated over a 24-hour period the ability to produce at an extrapolated rate of 7,000 vehicles per week. By the end of this year, we expect to be able to produce Model 3 at this rate on a sustained basis.
2019 Q1
Production: 62,975
Weekly average: 4,844
Seq Growth: 3%
Letter (24 Apr 2019):
We produced roughly 63,000 Model 3 vehicles in Q1, which was approximately 3% more than the previous quarter. This improvement in production rate was modest mainly due to changes to the production process for the introduction of new variants of Model 3, fewer working days and a supplier limitation. We started production and deliveries of Model 3 vehicles for overseas markets during Q1.
2019 Q2
Production: 72,531
Weekly average: 5,579
Seq Growth: 15%
Letter (24 Jul 2019):
"The production rate of Model 3 continued to improve gradually throughout the quarter, breaking a monthly record in May and then again in June. All manufacturing equipment in Fremont has demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week run rate, which we continue to work to increase. We aim to produce 10,000 total vehicles of all models per week by the end of 2019."
2019 Q3
Production: 79,837
Weekly average: 6,141
Seq Growth: 10%
YoY Growth: 50%
---------------------
All seems on track to me. Could very well be that Fremont exited Q3 producing 7k Model 3 per week.
It's the sluggish demand for S&X that has been the main problem, hotly followed by gross margins for the 3 stubbornly stuck in the mid teens.
With luck margins should before long nudge towards the target, with softer depreciation impact at Fremont once it's sustainably +7k per week and with further improvements in the the production process. The overall margin mix will get another kick once Shanghai Giga is up to speed with its lower COGS and depreciation per unit (though will be horrible during the ramp of course). And once the Y is in full swing, S&X demand won't matter a jot. Patience young padawans.
The black swan remains a 2020 global downturn and/or US-EU trade war, to which I don't have a good answer for you, other than to diversify into govies and bullion and have trust that the best companies tend to come out the other side stronger.
-----------------------
2018 Q4
Production: 61,394
Weekly average: 4,723
Seq Growth: 15%
Letter (20 Jan 2019):
In our Fremont facility, we are now past the steep portion of the production S-curve, and we expect our production rate to continue to gradually improve. Every part of the Model 3 production process has demonstrated over a 24-hour period the ability to produce at an extrapolated rate of 7,000 vehicles per week. By the end of this year, we expect to be able to produce Model 3 at this rate on a sustained basis.
2019 Q1
Production: 62,975
Weekly average: 4,844
Seq Growth: 3%
Letter (24 Apr 2019):
We produced roughly 63,000 Model 3 vehicles in Q1, which was approximately 3% more than the previous quarter. This improvement in production rate was modest mainly due to changes to the production process for the introduction of new variants of Model 3, fewer working days and a supplier limitation. We started production and deliveries of Model 3 vehicles for overseas markets during Q1.
2019 Q2
Production: 72,531
Weekly average: 5,579
Seq Growth: 15%
Letter (24 Jul 2019):
"The production rate of Model 3 continued to improve gradually throughout the quarter, breaking a monthly record in May and then again in June. All manufacturing equipment in Fremont has demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week run rate, which we continue to work to increase. We aim to produce 10,000 total vehicles of all models per week by the end of 2019."
2019 Q3
Production: 79,837
Weekly average: 6,141
Seq Growth: 10%
YoY Growth: 50%
---------------------
All seems on track to me. Could very well be that Fremont exited Q3 producing 7k Model 3 per week.
It's the sluggish demand for S&X that has been the main problem, hotly followed by gross margins for the 3 stubbornly stuck in the mid teens.
With luck margins should before long nudge towards the target, with softer depreciation impact at Fremont once it's sustainably +7k per week and with further improvements in the the production process. The overall margin mix will get another kick once Shanghai Giga is up to speed with its lower COGS and depreciation per unit (though will be horrible during the ramp of course). And once the Y is in full swing, S&X demand won't matter a jot. Patience young padawans.
The black swan remains a 2020 global downturn and/or US-EU trade war, to which I don't have a good answer for you, other than to diversify into govies and bullion and have trust that the best companies tend to come out the other side stronger.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
To be fair, people routinely drop $600-1k on a new iPhone every year or two.
3Victoria
Active Member
It is well known that reducing price increases demand. However, anexcelkent EV is a new phenomenon and demand for the Model 3, while price sensitive, is also driven by curiosity, lust, and jealousy. Even with no price reduction, demand will increase. Tesla's problem has always been to match production to demand.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
First, I have about 80,000 engaged AP miles...so yes I am ok taking the risk. Never had a scary incident.
Second, nobody else has ever chosen the path Tesla is taking. That’s nonsense. Nobody else has a fleet of hundreds of thousands of equipped cars gathering data.
Nobody.
Nobody else supports fleetwide software updates with retrained data.
Nobody.
Almost everyone else does it with LIDAR.
Just nonsense.
You think the other route is longer but not by much? AI is about big data. You need tons of data to train it. Then you need tons more to validate it. Then you need tons more to verify it for approval.
Second place to Tesla in this is several *orders of magnitude* less data.
So if you do the math, competitors are orders of magnitude slower. That’s not a little slower. It’s a lot slower.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I have MCU1 and wouldn’t pay $3k to enable YouTube, Netflix, and some games. That would buy a lot of iPads, Netflix subscriptions, and data plans...
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