Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

What fixed costs ? Unlike 3 - there isn't much.

Y will play out differently than 3. The % increase in volume is much smaller than with 3. When Y starts production, Tesla will already be gaap break-even with 3 + S&X.

The likely issue is high profits in the beginning quarters when Y has ramped up - but producing only high margin trims. Then the lower trims start - reducing the margin - like it happened with 3. I hope Tesla guides properly for this.

Sure, except they'll be starting with lower costs having taken on all the hard lessons of the M3 ramp, so better margins from the go - plus the MY has a similar cost to make, but is $5k higher purchase price.

 

[UncaNed]

Any chance of the mods could mop up a few trolls?

Makes me miss @neroden all the more...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Model 3 hasn't even hit all markets yet. And Model Y will only be hitting certain markets as production ramps. So Europe might not even see Model Y production until the end of 2020 or early 2021. At 10k week or higher production for Model 3, they could probably afford to lower the trims for the 3 by 2k or so. If they make good on their breakthrough for battery cell production and efficiencies in battery pack production, that could shave another 2k off of the price of all trim levels of the 3. Once the SR+ gets in the neighborhood of 35k, I have no doubt they'll be able to maintain demand of 400-500k/year.

I don’t know. It’s still a sedan. I would think the demand for the Y will be considerably higher. But you raise an interesting point on the battery production and efficiencies. Even if they only drop the price half of that and keep the rest as profit or to finance R and D.

It’ll be an interesting 3 years.

 

[EVNow]

Whats the saying, even a broke clock is correct twice a day?

(I'm pretty sure this is the first time I actually had a prediction that was close to being correct)

From 10:10 TSLA is following Nasdaq.

 

[StealthP3D]

View attachment 462310

Agreed. Monstrous demand problems

How come there is a "funny" button but not a "hilarious" button?

 

[Tslynk67]

Sold
50 shares yesterday at 243, missed the low today.

Buy them back now or wait a week to see what the shorts can do?

The delivery "miss" sell-off is overblown IMO. I need to sell $8k worth of shares by the 20th of the month (based on $225 purchase price) and I'm going to wait. Don't forget that Shanghai comes online 14th - that could be a big catalyst or, if delayed could knock it back down again.

Certainly not advice, but my plan.

 

[KSilver2000]

When Y starts production, Tesla will already be gaap break-even with 3 + S&X.

Confident prediction. So, GAAP even in q2?
Willing to play the option on that?

Model 3 hasn't even hit all markets yet. And Model Y will only be hitting certain markets as production ramps. So Europe might not even see Model Y production until the end of 2020 or early 2021. At 10k week or higher production for Model 3, they could probably afford to lower the trims for the 3 by 2k or so. If they make good on their breakthrough for battery cell production and efficiencies in battery pack production, that could shave another 2k off of the price of all trim levels of the 3. Once the SR+ gets in the neighborhood of 35k, I have no doubt they'll be able to maintain demand of 400-500k/year.

Don’t have to wait for battery pack breakthrough. It’ll happen in 1Q2020. Tesla has done it every time so far after loss of tax credits, whether people see it as offsetting tax credits or manufacturing efficiency improvement.

 

[Curt Renz]

FreightWaves - hour ago: Tesla acquires Deepscale, accelerates towards road-ready robotaxis - FreightWaves

 

[Nocturnal]

This seems to show the potential for an excellent synergy between abundant wind power and electric vehicles. Since there is (currently) no good grid storage for excess wind energy during off-peak use, the EV batteries serve that role. The energy provider charges a higher rate during peak hours (essentially getting some income from this otherwise spilled power) and the consumer potentially still saves money (depending on usage patterns).

There are other interesting synergies going on as well. In Texas, the big wind farms are out in the Panhandle and Trans-Pecos, and the big consumers are Austin, San Antonio, DFW and Houston in the east. In an amazing feat of forward thinking, the state authorize a huge upgrade in the transmission grid to move all that wind power

This may have been the catalyst to finally open the floodgates for Texas solar. There is a LOT of west Texas acreage that is well-suited for solar, and now the transmission capability is ready and waiting.

Electricity de-regulation definitely helped as well.

 

[StealthP3D]

The delivery "miss" sell-off is overblown IMO. I need to sell $8k worth of shares by the 20th of the month (based on $225 purchase price) and I'm going to wait. Don't forget that Shanghai comes online 14th - that could be a big catalyst or, if delayed could knock it back down again.

I agree waiting to sell at this point will likely pay off, a bit more likely than not. But I hope you have an emergency line of credit you can tap in case the worse happens. Otherwise, it might be more prudent to just sell now. Having that kind of "must sell deadline" is not a good thing for portfolio performance.

 

[EVNow]

Confident prediction. So, GAAP even in q2?
Willing to play the option on that?

What I mean is - in Q3 '20 Tesla is likely GAAP break-even without Y. Not so with Q3 '18 without 3.

As to Q2 itself - I'd say likely gaap break-even. At the current margins Tesla is gaap break-even on ~ 120k deliveries per quarter. With China producing in good volumes, in Q2 Tesla should be able to deliver 120k. Ofcourse FCA deal + City NOA will add further to the bottom line.

I'm always willing to play options

ps : TSLA closed today at 233.03 (down 4.15%). Nasdaq up 1.12%.

 

[Tslynk67]

I agree waiting to sell at this point will likely pay off, a bit more likely than not. But I hope you have an emergency line of credit you can tap in case the worse happens. Otherwise, it might be more prudent to just sell now. Having that kind of "must sell deadline" is not a good thing for portfolio performance.

It's OK, just a delivery report trade I made. I did the same last quarter - bought 35 shares at $215, sold 30 at $250, added 5 shares for free to my core position.

So I have to get that money back to pay my sales taxes, if it means I lose one or two or the shares I won last quarter, I won't beat myself up over it, but still a chance I can gain some.

And yeah, I could have sold when we were at $245, but I was really expecting a good delivery report and we got a good delivery report, but...

 

[T3slaOwner]

I agree, the games the big three played worked in the past. And it continued working long after the car-buying public grew tired of it. But they wouldn't stop playing the same stupid games because they didn't have to stop. And the games helped them earn profits on inferior products. The barriers to entry were so high the big three had no competition. Enter Tesla.

Now the car-buying public has a choice. Let's see what happens.

I'm pretty sure most people are sick and tired of all the games.

That "games"? The auto makers give the people what they want same as every other manufacturer (by that I mean what sells). What you call "games" is how the dealers get people to buy cars. That won't change either since it sells cars too.

People have always had choices. In the 70s they chose Japanese cars because of their reliability even though they were not the lowest price. The fallout improved quality in every car made anywhere since with the exception perhaps of the Yugo. Tesla will have an impact on what EVs are made and how well they work, but the Big Iron automakers will show them a thing or two when it comes to giving the public what they want.

I drove a model S loaner the other day and realized it was still a great car even without the performance package or even the dual motors. 90% of the stuff people rave about with Teslas aren't going to be in most of the EVs ultimately sold. Why dual motors? Why the uber-fancy console?

All people want is a car that doesn't look like a reject from a SiFi movie from the 50s, enough range to drive 4 hours on the highway and enough power to get on the highway with three passengers. I'm pretty sure that's what GM, Ford Toyota and others will figure out how to do. The truly successful EV makers will be the ones that sell an EV Corolla at the same price as a gas Corolla. In the meantime, now that Tesla has shown them a $35,000 EV can be built, everyone will be doing it very shortly. After that the huge financial resources will allow Big Iron to out innovate Tesla. Without more venture capital how much can Tesla really continue to do? They are struggling to even break even.

 

[KarenRei]

All people want is a car that doesn't look like a reject from a SiFi movie from the 50s, enough range to drive 4 hours on the highway and enough power to get on the highway with three passengers...

.... and to not have to bring a book to read because your charging stops will take so long, from a double-the-price, unreliable patchwork network.

Also, the market has quite clearly spoken about what they want. And it's not something like a Bolt.

I'm pretty sure that's what GM, Ford Toyota and others will figure out how to do

Why?

What about their EV attempts thusfar has given you cause to think that they have any knack whatsoever at bringing their EVs' production costs relative to their stats? If anything, they're only falling further behind.

 

[204EV]

That "games"? The auto makers give the people what they want same as every other manufacturer (by that I mean what sells). What you call "games" is how the dealers get people to buy cars. That won't change either since it sells cars too.

People have always had choices. In the 70s they chose Japanese cars because of their reliability even though they were not the lowest price. The fallout improved quality in every car made anywhere since with the exception perhaps of the Yugo. Tesla will have an impact on what EVs are made and how well they work, but the Big Iron automakers will show them a thing or two when it comes to giving the public what they want.

I drove a model S loaner the other day and realized it was still a great car even without the performance package or even the dual motors. 90% of the stuff people rave about with Teslas aren't going to be in most of the EVs ultimately sold. Why dual motors? Why the uber-fancy console?

All people want is a car that doesn't look like a reject from a SiFi movie from the 50s, enough range to drive 4 hours on the highway and enough power to get on the highway with three passengers. I'm pretty sure that's what GM, Ford Toyota and others will figure out how to do. The truly successful EV makers will be the ones that sell an EV Corolla at the same price as a gas Corolla. In the meantime, now that Tesla has shown them a $35,000 EV can be built, everyone will be doing it very shortly. After that the huge financial resources will allow Big Iron to out innovate Tesla. Without more venture capital how much can Tesla really continue to do? They are struggling to even break even.

This post feels like it could be from any year after 2015.

 

[Compton]

That "games"? The auto makers give the people what they want same as every other manufacturer (by that I mean what sells). What you call "games" is how the dealers get people to buy cars. That won't change either since it sells cars too.

People have always had choices. In the 70s they chose Japanese cars because of their reliability even though they were not the lowest price. The fallout improved quality in every car made anywhere since with the exception perhaps of the Yugo. Tesla will have an impact on what EVs are made and how well they work, but the Big Iron automakers will show them a thing or two when it comes to giving the public what they want.

I drove a model S loaner the other day and realized it was still a great car even without the performance package or even the dual motors. 90% of the stuff people rave about with Teslas aren't going to be in most of the EVs ultimately sold. Why dual motors? Why the uber-fancy console?

All people want is a car that doesn't look like a reject from a SiFi movie from the 50s, enough range to drive 4 hours on the highway and enough power to get on the highway with three passengers. I'm pretty sure that's what GM, Ford Toyota and others will figure out how to do. The truly successful EV makers will be the ones that sell an EV Corolla at the same price as a gas Corolla. In the meantime, now that Tesla has shown them a $35,000 EV can be built, everyone will be doing it very shortly. After that the huge financial resources will allow Big Iron to out innovate Tesla. Without more venture capital how much can Tesla really continue to do? They are struggling to even break even.

And destroy their core ICE business? Nope. Not happening "very shortly". Not even shortly. Aside from killing their own business, there is no battery capacity for that.

 

[brian45011]

Hi everybody. Here are the results of my Q3 2019 Tesla Production & Delivery Estimates Survey.

This table shows the top 10 most accurate estimates in all 6 categories. Congrats to @Fender827, @Doggydogworld and @EVNow for the first three places.

If we ignore production and look at just the delivery estimates, the top 10 entries would be as follows:

The accuracy of the community average was pretty good too:

You can see all the results here.

The poster who made his prediction early in the quarter was more accurate than all but one who made predictions late in the quarter. Go figure (or pay attention to DDW).

 

[M3Rider]

Whats the saying, even a broke clock is correct twice a day?

(I'm pretty sure this is the first time I actually had a prediction that was close to being correct)

 

[HG Wells]

All people want is a car that doesn't look like a reject from a SiFi movie from the 50s, enough range to drive 4 hours on the highway and enough power to get on the highway with three passengers. I'm pretty sure that's what GM, Ford Toyota and others will figure out how to do. The truly successful EV makers will be the ones that sell an EV Corolla at the same price as a gas Corolla. In the meantime, now that Tesla has shown them a $35,000 EV can be built, everyone will be doing it very shortly. After that the huge financial resources will allow Big Iron to out innovate Tesla. Without more venture capital how much can Tesla really continue to do? They are struggling to even break even.

You may not want a car that looks like one from a Sci Fi movie from the 50s. But I DO !
That's why I got a model 3 !

 

[T3slaOwner]

.... and to not have to bring a book to read because your charging stops will take so long, from a double-the-price, unreliable patchwork network.

That's why the 4 hour requirement. I don't know anyone who wants to drive more than a tank of gas without food. No, not true, I know people who travel on energy bars and coke/coffee. Not me, I want a real meal with no rush. An hour is good.

Also, the market has quite clearly spoken about what they want. And it's not something like a Bolt.

What market. There's virtually no choices. Do you read what I post? The competition will be out in two, three years.



[/QUOTE]Why?

What about their EV attempts thusfar has given you cause to think that they have any knack whatsoever at bringing their EVs' production costs relative to their stats? If anything, they're only falling further behind.[/QUOTE]

Because they haven't actually attempted to provide anything to the market. Just like when GM built the EV1 and ended up crushing them all. They made them for their own reasons, not because they wanted to sell a profitable product. With Tesla showing there is a real market, the gloves are off and all the car companies are in the race. Just give them time to lace up their shoes and see what 100 years of auto making experience can do. Several of them have said they will have multiple models out in 2022 which in aggregate will be more than what Tesla has. By 2025 there will be more models from each of several companies that Tesla will have. Do you really think Tesla will continue to grow leaps and bounds with that sort of competition?

Selling a few hundred thousand cars is not dominating the market. Tesla has shown the world it is possible, but I've already said what their limitations are. Really it's twofold. 1) They can't grow as fast as the other companies can change course. 2) Musk is setting their direction which has been great for a startup company, but I don't believe it will take the world by storm. The vast majority of people want transportation, not a view into the future.

What stats are you referring to?