Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

where did you find it can't see it on TSLA yahoo feed

Investing.com - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) reported third quarter earnings that beat analysts' expectations on Wednesday and revenue that fell short of forecasts.

The firm reported earnings per share of $-0.16 on revenue of $6.34B. Analysts polled by Investing.com anticipated EPS of $-0.47 on revenue of $6.45B. That compared to EPS of $2.9 on revenue of $6.82B in the same period a year earlier. The company had reported EPS of $-1.12 on revenue of $6.35B in the previous quarter.

Tesla follows other major Consumer Cyclical sector earnings this month
On September 24, Nike reported first quarter EPS of $0.86 on revenue of $10.66B, compared to forecasts of EPS of $0.7 on revenue of $10.44B.

AutoZone earnings beat analysts' expectations on September 24, with fourth quarter EPS of $22.59 on revenue of $3.75B. Investing.com analysts expected EPS of $21.77 on revenue of $3.93B

 

[HG Wells]

Tesla Earnings Beat, Revenue Misses In Q3

Wha....?

Is someone at Yahoo high?

DAM. Did someone steal my time machine AGAIN ?

 

[Christine69420]

Yahoo didn't mention anything about lottery numbers did they?

 

[AlexS]

well yahoo and investing.com are def feeding bots. that should be a SEC case

 

[brian45011]

Way back on...last Thursday "

Or early 2014. TSLA has been dead money going on the last half dozen years--it pays no dividend. Either trade it or bet on that little ball landing on the green double zero.

 

[brian45011]

Excellent stuff. Have you seen this?

Storage developer plans to bring batteries to 149 MW Texas wind portfolio in SPP territory

"50 GW of wind, 28.5 GW of solar and 5.7 GW of storage in its interconnection queue as of June.... The developer declined to provide financial details of the sale."

 

[ggr]

Investing.com:

Over the years, Investing.com established itself as a trustworthy publisher, allowing hundreds of loyal advertisers the opportunity for global and local exposure, on all available platforms.

Founded in 2007, Investing.com now has over 300 employees in Tel Aviv, Madrid, Milan, Tokyo, São Paulo, Mumbai, Seoul, Ho Chi Minh (Saigon) and Shenzhen.

I was going to report them to the SEC but there's no point. I will complain about Yahoo instead.
Edit: done.

 

[brian45011]

In Texas, the legislators have classified battery storage as energy generation, not energy storage, so it can't really be used until the law changes.

Legislators or TxPUC staff? If the latter, that can quickly change until the Intervenors tie it up in a T&D utility's rate case docket. Look at what happened to the ONCOR idea of purchasing beaucoup Power-Packs

 

[brian45011]

Investing.com: I will complain about Yahoo instead.

P***** in the wind. One of five activities elder gentlemen should refrain from.

 

[ggr]

P***** in the wind. One of five activities elder gentlemen should refrain from.

Probably, but it only takes about one minute. The hardest thing was finding Yahoo's street address.

 

[deffu]

Yes - I don't think they sold less S&X in Sept compared to August.

BTW, the case of S&X is curious.

Q1
EU+US : 10,623
Total : 12,091
Diff : ~1,500

Q3

EU+US : 12,028
Total : 17,650
Diff : ~5,600​

Q3
EU+US : 11,507 (incomplete)
Total : 17,400
Diff : ~6,000​

So, did China (and ROW) really buy so many S&X in Q2 and Q3 - compared to Q1 ?

Was it China sales hit by tariff increase in Q1 and later lifted?

 

[TradingInvest]

Longer term I see 3+Y combined settling into a ~500k/year sales rate.

I talk to Model 3 buyers, look at yearly global new vehicle demand, compare those ICE vehicles with Model 3 and Y, I can't imagine Tesla only selling ~500k/year.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla Earnings Beat, Revenue Misses In Q3

That is interesting given my comment in the finance thread.

Yes - I think if the analysts averages remain the same - we will see a beat on eps but a miss on revenue.

Given the higher lease %, the analysts should revise their numbers downward for revenue. We'll see where we are in 3 weeks.

Current Yahoo numbers are :
EPS (non-gaap) : -0.41or ~ $70M loss.
Revenue : $6.38B

 

[EVNow]

Was it China sales hit by tariff increase in Q1 and later lifted?

Didn't Tesla send extra shipment to China ahead of Q1 ?

Still, I don't see that many S/X being sold in China in Q2 and Q3. I think S&X numbers reported in US is low.

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Earnings Beat, Revenue Misses In Q3

Yahoo BOTS gone WILD.
Few days back we saw the Delivery numbers with XXX in place of numbers

 

[larmor]

Or early 2014. TSLA has been dead money going on the last half dozen years--it pays no dividend. Either trade it or bet on that little ball landing on the green double zero.

Or every war for oil, every pseudo drone strike to remind us of oil’s one way usage, every time someone has to junk their old car there will be another chance to get an ev. Chances are increasing and they are going to be more green double zeros on the wheel for each of these events. Or your ball lands on the red double nine and we all install gas stations in our houses so we can charge our cell phones and laptops.

 

[madodel]

Netflix: exists
Blockbuster: Do you not understand that you are waking me up, a sleeping giant?
Netflix: Okay.
And then, there's no "and then".

Amazon: exists
Lots of B&M only retailers: Do you not understand that you are waking us up, a lot of sleeping giants?
Amazon: Okay
And then, there's no "and then".

It should be noted that it's even more difficult for existing ICE car maker. EV is a different ball game -

1) Their expertise in ICE based power train do not apply.
2) A lot of their existing employee's expertise do not apply.
3) There are internal friction from all levels inside the company resisting change due to 1) and 2).
4) Their investments in ICE only infra needs to be sold off for a loss before they can be fully depreciated / written off.
5) C-levels need to convince shareholders in writing off their ICE assets, and making a transition to going full EV, while at the same time managing resistance from inside the company.
6) EV and ICE line up from the same company invites cannibalization. Makes too good of an EV? You kill your ICE business too fast before your EV line up can replace the existing ICE lineup in revenue and profit. Half ass effort of an EV? Why would consumer choose an inferior product to Teslas?
7) Most ICE car makers do not have the ability to vertically integrate as much like Tesla. Tesla has a serious cost advantage here.

Their best hope for survival is, believe or not, just pulling the money out, form a new company and start from scratch.

You left out that:
8) Their dealer network won't sell EVs. No service income.
9) They are screwed royally.

 

[KarenRei]

Yahoo BOTS gone WILD.
Few days back we saw the Delivery numbers with XXX in place of numbers

Biff Tannen gave them a visit. Or maybe they gave Miss Cleo a call?

Crazy that this thing is still up. I wonder how on earth these numbers got into their system?

 

[The Accountant]

That is interesting given my comment in the finance thread.

What's also interesting is this line from the Yahoo article:
"The firm reported earnings per share of $-0.16"
The $-0.16 ties to @luvb2b estimate at the Finance Tread....

 

[Thekiwi]

I'm not a big Model Y fan - I consider it more of a 3 variant than truly separate model - but sharing so many parts between 3/Y will help financially. I see Fremont production and margins dipping in Q1/Q2 as they start and ramp the Model Y line, but margins should be great for a couple quarters after that because they'll only sell high trim Model Ys at first.

Longer term I see 3+Y combined settling into a ~500k/year sales rate. I realize that's far below Musk's 2 million/year and grounds for excommunication from this board, but that's my base case. Upside could come from:

- Norway-style incentives in larger countries
- ICE bans catching on in cities
- Large COGS reductions allowing ASPs of 40k vs. 50k
- Real FSD (i.e. sleep during your commute)​

I don't expect any of these in the next few years, but many here do. We'll see how it goes.

...

I think your ~500k prediction for long term combined 3 & Y demand is way way too low. 3 is already above 300k as EVs are still a minuscule percentage of new car sales. Also ignores the steady decrease in entry level pricing combined with better featured cars that Tesla has been producing.