Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

Biff Tannen gave them a visit. Or maybe they gave Miss Cleo a call?

Crazy that this thing is still up. I wonder how on earth these numbers got into their system?

So everybody gets to laugh at me but seriously how is this report up. Is it meant to be a joke? Not sure what’s happening.

 

[mblakele]

The stockmarket is now run by computers, algorithms and passive managers — The Economist

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Can't depreciate land. Ground lease is slightly different but don't think expensing rent requires production. Kudos on your delivery and production predictions.

They will expense the rent periodically and reduce the prepayment asset accordingly.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla Earnings Beat, Revenue Misses In Q3

It's also on the original website: Tesla Earnings Beat, Revenue Misses In Q3

This is marvelous. Investing.com apparently has a crystal ball that can look weeks into the future. I wonder if they have a patent? Perhaps we should sell all of our financial assets and invest the proceeds in Investing.com before word gets out.

I believe this is a clip featuring the wizard who runs Investing.com:

 

[EVNow]

I think your ~500k prediction for long term combined 3 & Y demand is way way too low. 3 is already above 300k as EVs are still a minuscule percentage of new car sales. Also ignores the steady decrease in entry level pricing combined with better featured cars that Tesla has been producing.

Basically -
- Current run rate is 300k/yr
- After Y, 3 rate will be 200k/yr and Y will be 300k/yr = 500k/yr

I'd say this is 2021. No idea what the real "long term" rate is.

 

[RobStark]

I agree, the games the big three played worked in the past. And it continued working long after the car-buying public grew tired of it. But they wouldn't stop playing the same stupid games because they didn't have to stop. And the games helped them earn profits on inferior products. The barriers to entry were so high the big three had no competition. Enter Tesla.

Now the car-buying public has a choice. Let's see what happens.

I'm pretty sure most people are sick and tired of all the games.

The Detroit 3 have 45% US market share.

All Japanese Automakers combined have 38% US market share.

All Korean Automakers combined have 8% US market share.

All German Automakers combined have 7.5% US market share.

All California Automakers* combined have 1.1% US market share.





California Automakers = Tesla until Lucid or some other CA startup gets off the snyde.

 

[dc_h]

Basically -
- Current run rate is 300k/yr
- After Y, 3 rate will be 200k/yr and Y will be 300k/yr = 500k/yr

I'd say this is 2021. No idea what the real "long term" rate is.

Basically 400,000 run rate now ~100,000 per quarter.
Expect 200,000 per quarter by Q4 2020.
New line in Fremont, new casting system and at least 5000 a week in Shanghai.

 

[powertoold]

By end of 2021 Tesla will be doing 1 million/yr 3/Y combined.

 

[X Fan]

Love it! I can tell that it won't be long after you take delivery on your Model 3 when you will wish the climate control had a one-touch "no heat" setting. Currently, it requires scrolling the set temp down to "LO" and making sure the A/C is off (which means it doesn't work in "AUTO" mode). Maybe they can call it "Icelander Mode". Just the fresh air please but, if the cabin rises above the set temperature, please turn on the ultra-efficient A/C.

“Maybe they can call it "Icelander Mode". ”

Nah it will be simply “Karen mode”

 

[anthonyj]

By end of 2021 Tesla will be doing 1 million/yr 3/Y combined.

How? There is a demand problem. What are they going to do, reduce the cars to $0?

Analyst says for the first time ever he is worried about Tesla demand, downgrades stock

This is the FIRST TIME that this analyst (whose job is to analyze Tesla AND PROVIDE HONEST ANALYSIS TO THE PUBLIC FOR FREE) is worried about demand. The company reported horrible record deliveries. This guy is giving honest analysis on why Tesla has a demand problem. He definitely isn't downgrading the stock to cause weak longs and dumb shorts to sell to institutions. Definitely not. Nope, no way.

Record Deliveries = Record Demand Problem

 

[RobStark]

I fully expect Model 3 sales to drop with the Model Y rampup (unless there's some sort of major market expansion at the same time, such as moving into a country like India or new tax credits in the US). But I simultaneously fully expect total volume to continue to climb. And Model Y to yield higher margins than Model 3 to boot.

There is a 100% tax on imported "luxury" cars in India,meaning those of ~$32k plus.

Brazil has 35% import tax plus associated taxes that can add another 20%. I don't exactly know which would apply to Tesla specifically. South Africa copied these taxes almost word for word.

Russia "only" has a 25% import tax.

To get into the BRICS automotive market you have to manufacture there, with the possible exception of Russia.

 

[Reinhard]

How? There is a demand problem. What are they going to do, reduce the cars to $0?

Analyst says for the first time ever he is worried about Tesla demand, downgrades stock

This is the FIRST TIME that this analyst (whose job is to analyze Tesla AND PROVIDE HONEST ANALYSIS TO THE PUBLIC FOR FREE) is worried about demand. The company reported horrible record deliveries. This guy is giving honest analysis on why Tesla has a demand problem. He definitely isn't downgrading the stock to cause weak longs and dumb shorts to sell to institutions. Definitely not. Nope, no way.

Record Deliveries = Record Demand Problem

Two consecutive quarters of record deliveries. And with the tailwind of end of tax credits with a new factory, most likely three consecutive quarters.

 

[brian45011]

every time someone has to junk their old car there will be another chance to get an ev. .

Another round of "Cash for Clunkers"? All the destruction of the embedded energy in useful clunkers with remaining lives of decade or more for a modest improvement in MPG that will take multiple decades (if ever) to get back to even with nature? Too bad AOC is too young to pick the Burn for her Veep.

 

[RobStark]

But smaller ones can go under first. Aston Martin can be in trouble soon.

Alex_85S on Twitter

Aston Martin is in trouble 90% of the time.

And has been so for over 50 years.

There are always some rich British guy(s) that rescue at the last second for nostalgic/patriotic reasons.

 

[PeterJA]

By end of 2021 Tesla will be doing 1 million/yr 3/Y combined.

In the AI community, the term "The Singularity" means the future event when General Artificial Intelligence is first created and begins improving itself at the speed of supercomputers. The term originates from mathematics, and indicates that no one can predict what will happen after the event. History will become irrelevant, because there has never been an event like it in the past.

If Tesla succeeds in their plan to create General Driving Artificial Intelligence ("Full Self Driving"), that event will cause a mini-Singularity in the transportation industry. No one can predict exactly what will happen, because automotive history will become irrelevant. Sales projections based on the past are unlikely to be correct.

For example, consumer demand for Tesla vehicles will become irrelevant because whatever vehicles Tesla doesn't sell (or chooses not to sell) will be added to the Tesla-owned robotaxi fleet. We should be asking not "how many cars can Tesla sell by X date" but instead "how many can Tesla possibly produce by X date," because production will be the only limit on their mission of transitioning the world to sustainable transport. Maybe the coming Battery Day presentation, new gigafactory announcements, and mining subsidiary announcements will allow the skilled number-crunchers here to make educated guesses.

 

[Petrocelli]

How? There is a demand problem. What are they going to do, reduce the cars to $0?

Analyst says for the first time ever he is worried about Tesla demand, downgrades stock

This is the FIRST TIME that this analyst (whose job is to analyze Tesla AND PROVIDE HONEST ANALYSIS TO THE PUBLIC FOR FREE) is worried about demand. The company reported horrible record deliveries. This guy is giving honest analysis on why Tesla has a demand problem. He definitely isn't downgrading the stock to cause weak longs and dumb shorts to sell to institutions. Definitely not. Nope, no way.

Record Deliveries = Record Demand Problem

This analyst was worried that demand is "leveling off".

 

[abasile]

Another round of "Cash for Clunkers"? All the destruction of the embedded energy in useful clunkers with remaining lives of decade or more for a modest improvement in MPG that will take multiple decades (if ever) to get back to even with nature? Too bad AOC is too young to pick the Burn for her Veep.

If the clunkers were to all get replaced with BEVs, then it'd be a clear win for the environment, more than just incremental. The emissions from a typical gas car over a period of years far outweigh the footprint to produce a BEV. Here's a Union of Concerned Scientists report from 2015 that shows that BEVs quickly "pay for themselves" in terms of emissions, keeping in mind that EV and battery manufacturing has grown more efficient since then:
Cleaner Cars from Cradle to Grave (2015)

One downside of Cash for Clunkers programs is that they sort of reward people for already having inefficient vehicles. It seems to me that straight-up tax credits or rebates on BEVs are more effective. Better yet, ramp up a stiff price on carbon, perhaps combined with tax cuts elsewhere, and let the market sort things out.

 

[Carl Raymond]

In the AI community, the term "The Singularity" means the future event when General Artificial Intelligence is first created and begins improving itself at the speed of supercomputers. The term originates from mathematics, and indicates that no one can predict what will happen after the event. History will become irrelevant, because there has never been an event like it in the past.

If Tesla succeeds in their plan to create General Driving Artificial Intelligence ("Full Self Driving"), that event will cause a mini-Singularity in the transportation industry. No one can predict exactly what will happen, because automotive history will become irrelevant. Sales projections based on the past are unlikely to be correct.

For example, consumer demand for Tesla vehicles will become irrelevant because whatever vehicles Tesla doesn't sell (or chooses not to sell) will be added to the Tesla-owned robotaxi fleet. We should be asking not "how many cars can Tesla sell by X date" but instead "how many can Tesla possibly produce by X date," because production will be the only limit on their mission of transitioning the world to sustainable transport. Maybe the coming Battery Day presentation, new gigafactory announcements, and mining subsidiary announcements will allow the skilled number-crunchers here to make educated guesses.

There might also be an energy singularity, where a factory, solar powered and run entirely by robots, builds solar panels and robots, that then build an identical factory...

 

[Thekiwi]

So the 110,000 orders number - how many model Y orders do we think are in that figure?

 

[powertoold]

So the 110,000 orders number - how many model Y orders do we think are in that figure?

0 because it doesn't count preorders