Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ulmo]

We’ve been hearing this refrain for a very long time. Still waiting. Porsche is finally releasing something that can almost compete with a 2012 Model S(better in some ways, worse in a lot of ways and way more expensive) and nobody else has anything close.

VWAudi Etron & MB EQC are not only close to the 2012 Model S, but better in many ways, hitting a different set of features than Tesla has. Tesla can snap your neck with its launch all the while you hear the screaming ICE engines around you through thin insulation and spill your papers that aren't in a nonexistent door pocket into your footwell causing you to have a fender bender putting your car in the shop for months, but the German models aren't about snapping your neck, aren't about keeping you annoyed at ICE cars, and aren't about letting your affairs go all over. First, the German models have a door pocket, and second, they aren't imposing the outside world onto you, and third, they are comfortable. For now, there may be a minimum of people who are tired of Tesla and want to switch back to Audi and Mercedes, but they do exist. Further, some existing Mercedes and Audi owners will probably like the idea of an EQC, EQS, or Etron, test drive one, and find it to their liking. That is a fair bit better in some ways than the 2012 Model S. Many, in fact.

Granted, the Model 3 is a big step up from the Model S. Tesla is years ahead in many important dimensions.

I think there's enough market share for a lot of the companies. Just we have to get used to Tesla being a big part of that. I for one am looking forward to a used EQS, or maybe used Model Y or used Model X, or maybe a used competent e-van or more truck-like platform. I have even odds which one of the least utilitarian vehicles will meet my liking and budget first, but the utilitarian vehicles I probably need most are least likely to be available soonest. Basically, the short-termers here get really near-sighted and don't realize there's plenty of market share left (like 98% of it).

 

[MP3Mike]

Porsche should be able to crush Tesla, they are the ultra premium car company, they are getting more for their car, yet they can't make it way better.

Porsche is unable to make a way better car than Tesla.

We don't know that they are unable to or if they just chose not to at this time so as to not deprecate all of their ICE offerings before they can make money selling EVs.

 

[StealthP3D]

So Porsche indeed is getting way more price for their EV, and yet... they couldn't get it to perform way beyond a normal car (in this case the mass produced Tesla) at all. You be kind and say it is equal, but really, it still is behind in many areas. They totally failed.

Yup. But another way to look at it is that Tesla is not an ordinary car company and they don't build ordinary cars.

I will say, people seem to apply super-natural qualities to Porsche when, most of what they are seeing is that Porsche builds sports cars with minimal compromise. It's not so much a technological achievement but a marketing achievement. Meaning there isn't much of a market for pure sports cars but, yeah, Porshe makes the most track-oriented sports cars, price is no object and they have enough of that market segment to be dominant. Most sports cars are compromised due to price, interior space, etc. Porsche is the market leader and they understand their market very well but the most amazing thing about it isn't the cars, it's that they can capture so much of the tiny, track-orientated sports car market. Now, if they could make an amazing sportscar for $40,000, that would really impress me!

And if it were electric I would be even more impressed.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

So Porsche indeed is getting way more price for their EV, and yet... they couldn't get it to perform way beyond a normal car (in this case the mass produced Tesla) at all. You be kind and say it is equal, but really, it still is behind in many areas. They totally failed.

Doesn't anyone see how game changing this is?

And that's just to make a handful of prototypes. The big challenge is actually scaling profitably, something they clearly have zero chance of doing.

So in reality step 1 should be pretty easy.....and they semi-failed already.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I want Tesla to put their next factory wherever THEY think it should go. Tesla collectively has a lot of knowledge as to what would benefit them and what the downsides of any particular location are. And Musk is a very good critical thinker. These people are not know-nothings and they don't take such decisions lightly.

Yes exactly; costs are one consideration, logistical viability, distribution, talent, labor laws etc. probably all trump "optics" of where something is made.

 

[GOVA]

I'm all for Poland. Member of the EU, reasonable wages, good work ethic, a government eager to get Tesla, situated close to important markets in Europe, no baggage in the shape of legacy car makers.

I'd like to add to this, if I may. Poland has had tremendous engineering potential for decades. Polish programmers are ranked 3rd in the world. Indeed, the lack of auto industry except FIAT factory in Tychy might be a plus or negative here. In any case, 50+ years of Soviet occupation did not help overall, but Poland has grown out of this swiftly in past 25 years. My vote goes there.

More Why Polish Developers Are One Of The Best In The World

 

[acoste]

What statistics are you going to use to "average out" the cars burnt in houses? The statistics you cite have so many confounding factors it isn't funny. Are you just trolling? Or simply lacking an understanding? In case its the latter, just as a rough start, how was the sampling (from the total population of vehicles) done for that report? Some points to consider:

how many ways can vehicles be lost to fire
what are the rates for each
what is the probability for coverage
how does that probability for coverage vary (that is, what is the bias introduced)

just a rough, qualitative pass on the above suggests that there is a bias to those with economic advantage as they are more likely to have insurance coverage and that Tesla vehicles are also significantly biased in that direction. Although there is downward penetration (I have one) the ASP for a model 3 of $50k is instructive -- and the model S and X have an even greater resistance.

It quickly becomes apparent that there are too many confounding factors to make any statements that are both detailed and statistically valid.

If you really want to compare spontaneous combustion of EVs to ICEv then the problem is far more tractable, but there is a lack of information. What we do have, however, from the scant news reports is adequate evidence that ICEv actually do spontaneously combust while parked with the engine off. Not so much for EVs. But don't take my word for it, actually do some research -- I know you can because you dredged up that non sequitor report. Okay, I'll give you a hint: google "bmw spontaneous combustion"

Nah, I can't help myself here's a link: 20 Dangerous Cars With The Highest Risk Of Spontaneous Combustion

I did some further research on this. I can clearly see trends with specific vehicle types which makes me believe the "car burnt with house" cases are underrepresented. Also HLDI trusts this data for their research. It is very unlikely that the houses of Tesla dual motor owners burn down more frequently than Tesla S RWD owners' houses. Also it is useful to compare those numbers to all cars and all luxury cars. I created a thread here and added BMW and other EV numbers as well however complete brand score can't be made based on the data. Tesla Model S and X dual motor numbers are worse than average ICE numbers or most BMW models.

Model S & X dual motor noncrash fire claims

This is all for vehicles 4 years and younger. HLDI says older cars are more prone to noncrash fire damage.

There are also some news on the subject: U.S. NHTSA reviewing claims 2,000 Tesla vehicles should have been recalled

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

VWAudi Etron & MB EQC are not only close to the 2012 Model S, but better in many ways, hitting a different set of features than Tesla has. Tesla can snap your neck with its launch all the while you hear the screaming ICE engines around you through thin insulation and spill your papers that aren't in a nonexistent door pocket into your footwell causing you to have a fender bender putting your car in the shop for months, but the German models aren't about snapping your neck, aren't about keeping you annoyed at ICE cars, and aren't about letting your affairs go all over. First, the German models have a door pocket, and second, they aren't imposing the outside world onto you, and third, they are comfortable. For now, there may be a minimum of people who are tired of Tesla and want to switch back to Audi and Mercedes, but they do exist. Further, some existing Mercedes and Audi owners will probably like the idea of an EQC, EQS, or Etron, test drive one, and find it to their liking. That is a fair bit better in some ways than the 2012 Model S. Many, in fact.

Granted, the Model 3 is a big step up from the Model S. Tesla is years ahead in many important dimensions.

I think there's enough market share for a lot of the companies. Just we have to get used to Tesla being a big part of that. I for one am looking forward to a used Model X, EQS, or Model Y, or maybe a e-van or more truck-like platform. I have even odds which one will meet my liking and budget first, but least likely the most utilitarian ones that I need most.

Somehow those 'traditional' offerings are not appealing to those traditional clients:

US Audi E-Tron sales:

April 253
May 856
June 726
July 678
August 593
September 434

US Jaguar I-Pace sales:

January 210
February 186
March 212
April 237
May 228
June 236
July 213
August 160
September 160

Note: these are cars that qualify for the full $7500 federal credit and, in the case of the Jaguar I-Pace, are heavily discounted. Their sales trajectories are pretty worrisome.

In Europe E-Tron is doing better, with the sale of about 1,500 cars per month, but the I-Pace has been on a downward trajectory for 4 months already, with sales halving in that period to about 750 per month.

 

[elasalle]

I don't think anyone really gets the crazy data point the Taycan is.

Porsche has the ability to make top of the line cars that cost way more than a normal car. Thus their cars perform way beyond a normal car.

So Porsche indeed is getting way more price for their EV, and yet... they couldn't get it to perform way beyond a normal car (in this case the mass produced Tesla) at all. You be kind and say it is equal, but really, it still is behind in many areas. They totally failed.

Doesn't anyone see how game changing this is?

Porsche should be able to crush Tesla, they are the ultra premium car company, they are getting more for their car, yet they can't make it way better.

Porsche is unable to make a way better car than Tesla.

This is a huge data point.

TSLA long.

Very hungry.
Option 1: Eat a Small Pie, Don't share with anyone
Option 2: Eat from a Large Pie, share with others, but your portion is going to be way bigger that Option 1 small Pie.

 

[elasalle]

I'd like to add to this, if I may. Poland has had tremendous engineering potential for decades. Polish programmers are ranked 3rd in the world. Indeed, the lack of auto industry except FIAT factory in Tychy might be a plus or negative here. In any case, 50+ years of Soviet occupation did not help overall, but Poland has grown out of this swiftly in past 25 years. My vote goes there.

More Why Polish Developers Are One Of The Best In The World

One metric - which country has the best commercially successful software products?

+ just like California GDP is like 5th largest in world, I wonder how world measures if be isolated programmers to just SValley

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I just filed a complaint with the SEC against NBC Universal. Their false report that Tesla is under investigation by NHTSA caused a six dollar drop in Tesla's share price.

Which investigation? Reuters mentioned they're investigating a software defect which may have resulted in fires, Elektrek mentioned they're investigating the range-loss due to battery defect, and Business Insider (sorry... I'll wash my hands after typing this) said they're investigating Smart Summon.

 

[LJS22]

Sorry haven’t been able to keep up with thread today. Was this discussed?
'There's absolutely no reason to own' Tesla in the near term, says wealth manager
I’m not sure how they have found a way to say demand is not there, and then to simply say “there’s no reason to own a Tesla” and give no substance to that is crazy. Oh yea the other HUGE problem Tesla faces is they innovate too fast. Nobody wants to buy a Tesla because they will be better in 3-6 months...how is that a reason to not buy one at all?

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Sorry haven’t been able to keep up with thread today. Was this discussed?
'There's absolutely no reason to own' Tesla in the near term, says wealth manager
I’m not sure how they have found a way to say demand is not there, and then to simply say “there’s no reason to own a Tesla” and give no substance to that is crazy. Oh yea the other HUGE problem Tesla faces is they innovate too fast. Nobody wants to buy a Tesla because they will be better in 3-6 months...how is that a reason to not buy one at all?

It's about TSLA not owning "a Tesla."

Speaking of which, my MOdel 3 Performance is 1 year old tomorrow! Happy Birthday Sparky..!

 

[Unpilot]

It is very unlikely that the houses of Tesla dual motor owners burn down more frequently than Tesla S RWD owners' houses.

WTH! It is very unlikely that ANY houses with a Tesla burn down.

Are you serious with this nonsense?

 

[elasalle]

Early weekend off topic (Friday night in Europe so technically weekend) - love this too much not to share, caraoke in action:

One of the best fan-made ads IMHO. How do we get this to Elon´s/Tesla´s twitter?

Tesla Longs ... gonna have FAITH

 

[Carl Raymond]

+++++

Run a life cycle energy balance and let's compare results.

For the world we are in, or the world we have to get to in 10 years?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

VWAudi Etron & MB EQC are not only close to the 2012 Model S, but better in many ways, hitting a different set of features than Tesla has. Tesla can snap your neck with its launch all the while you hear the screaming ICE engines around you through thin insulation and spill your papers that aren't in a nonexistent door pocket into your footwell causing you to have a fender bender putting your car in the shop for months, but the German models aren't about snapping your neck, aren't about keeping you annoyed at ICE cars, and aren't about letting your affairs go all over. First, the German models have a door pocket, and second, they aren't imposing the outside world onto you, and third, they are comfortable. For now, there may be a minimum of people who are tired of Tesla and want to switch back to Audi and Mercedes, but they do exist. Further, some existing Mercedes and Audi owners will probably like the idea of an EQC, EQS, or Etron, test drive one, and find it to their liking. That is a fair bit better in some ways than the 2012 Model S. Many, in fact.

Granted, the Model 3 is a big step up from the Model S. Tesla is years ahead in many important dimensions.

I think there's enough market share for a lot of the companies. Just we have to get used to Tesla being a big part of that. I for one am looking forward to a used EQS, or maybe used Model Y or used Model X, or maybe a used competent e-van or more truck-like platform. I have even odds which one of the least utilitarian vehicles will meet my liking and budget first, but the utilitarian vehicles I probably need most are least likely to be available soonest. Basically, the short-termers here get really near-sighted and don't realize there's plenty of market share left (like 98% of it).

These things are, of course, subjective, yes. In the objective measures(range, performance, interior space, charging network), none of those match a 2012 S. In the subjective measures, it appears the market at large disagrees with you(as do I).

 

[acoste]

WTH! It is very unlikely that ANY houses with a Tesla burn down.

Are you serious with this nonsense?

You misunderstood it. Read the post I replied to or the HLDI reports.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Absolutely. I was only implying concern over climate change isn't a very big motivation for Elon.

For God’s sake. Google “Musk Climate Change”.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I don't think anyone really gets the crazy data point the Taycan is.

Porsche has the ability to make top of the line cars that cost way more than a normal car. Thus their cars perform way beyond a normal car.

So Porsche indeed is getting way more price for their EV, and yet... they couldn't get it to perform way beyond a normal car (in this case the mass produced Tesla) at all. You be kind and say it is equal, but really, it still is behind in many areas. They totally failed.

Doesn't anyone see how game changing this is?

Porsche should be able to crush Tesla, they are the ultra premium car company, they are getting more for their car, yet they can't make it way better.

Porsche is unable to make a way better car than Tesla.

This is a huge data point.

TSLA long.

In fairness, they do seem to have performance of a single lap at a specific track over Tesla’s current fare(or, more broadly, medium-range track performance). They also have higher power charging, although their poor efficiency makes it slower overall.