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Why do you both assume the loan is for Chinese-made Model 3 when the SEC filing talks about "vehicles in-transit to China"? Am I reading this wrong - IMHO "to China" should mean the cars are coming from outside of China?!

If I read it right, the question arises why they set up a loan for importing Model 3 when they are just about to start production at GF 3.

GF3 is in Lingang, which is a free trade zone. To sell a car inside China itself, that car must first be imported from the FTZ (which would normally trigger a tax).

However, the Gov't of China has also greased the wheels here for Tesla too, with multiple exemptions, tax-breaks, and subsidies.

Gee, its like they WANT those Model 3s...

Cheers!

P.S. The size of the credit line is also telling. Its enough to cover approx. ALL of Fremont's current output. Only GF3 and the Model 3 would justify such an offering (no real risk to the Bank since those cars are always physically on the mainland, never in transit in the US or onboard ship in International waters).

Unless you think Tesla is nolonger going to deal with Deutsche Bank USA for its revolving line of credit? I've seen nothing to suggest that's been changed.
 
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What's the forecast from model 3 production at gigafactory 3 till end of year?

I don't think there's been an explicit one given. But in the Q2 transcript, Musk stated that "the trend is very clearly toward being able to get to 10,000 vehicles a week, of which that would be -- there is rough numbers like 8,300 to 8,600 Model 3s and the balance in S and X". One assumes that those are peak, very-end-of-the-year rates. They averaged at 6141/wk at Fremont in Q3. If one assumes 7k/wk peak Fremont rate at the end of the year, then that'd be a 1,3-1,6k/wk peak GF3 rate at the end of the year.
 
I see five big risks to Tesla Gigafactory in Germany:
  • Unions actually work there and are beneficial to workers and are a mostly positive political force, but the main German union that covers automotive workers (IG Metall) is very reactionary against EVs in particular. I fear in Germany Tesla's factory would be immediately unionized and IG Metall would sabotage Tesla from within, because they fear what the EV transition will do in their much larger factories at VW etc. Tesla Grohmann only barely avoided unionization by IG Metall in ~2017, and that's because Grohmann was primarily a white collar engineering firm, while IG Metall has a blue collar core identity ...
  • Bureaucracy is particularly heavy in Germany, and the real estate and construction industry is overheated, so I'd guess it would take twice as much time to build a Gigafactory and would cost twice as much.
  • Tesla might be able to install themselves as a big employer in the Nordrhein-Westfalen state, which only has smaller car factories from Opel, Mercedes and Ford, and might gain some political protection that way - but it's a pretty liberal state that will side with unions in disputes - and in any case a factory with 10-20 thousand jobs won't have much of a political pull within Germany compared to the rest of the automotive industry that is employing millions directly and 2-3 times as many indirectly.
  • On the German federal level (Chancellor) and on the European Union level Germany won't be representing Tesla's interests, they'll be representing the German car industry's interest. EV incentives related shenanigans like the 3.2m length limitation might be executed against Tesla just as much...
  • The German press will be just as hostile: German carmakers are spending billions in advertisements in Germany alone and are the biggest source of advertising income both at the print media and the broadcast media level.
By going Poland (or Spain) Tesla would gain not just sovereign country level protection, but also EU level protection - Poland has veto power and a lot of political muscle.

But maybe Elon wants the "Made in Germany" sticker badly - if so then it will come at a steep price IMHO.

Given the preparatory work on multiple candidate sites for both GF1 and GF3 we must expect the same for GF4.

German media is now openly talking about a domestic production crisis, so Tesla has an excellent bargaining chip there,
Krise: Deutschlands Autobranche steht vor düsterer Zukunft - WELT
Krise in der Autoindustrie verschärft sich
Wie tief die deutsche Autoindustrie in der Krise steckt | Anlagestrategie News | boerse.ARD.de

Four years ago Elon Musk visited Berlin and literally begged the Bundeswirtschaftsminister (''Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy") Sigmar Gabriel to get the German automotive industry started on electrification,
Tesla-Chef Elon Musk spricht mit Sigmar Gabriel (Mitschnitt)

Basically nothing came of this, so now Musk should really replace the carrot with a stick and tell the Germans:
"Tesla cannot build a factory in a Germany that cares only for its combustion engines. So you must give us exceedingly generous conditions for us to place our European Gigafactory within your borders. Otherwise we can talk again when Tesla needs to build(*) its second European Gigafactory".

(*) The second European Gigafactory can be established quickly and cheaply in a by then defunct incumbent auto makers facility, a bit like NUMMI in Fremont. Actually, give it one or two years and the same will be true for GF4...
 
These sort of acquisitions make it obvious why "Battery Investor Day" isn't this year. Would have been pretty ridiculous to host it when there were still acquisitions to complete. I wonder how many more might be in the pipeline.
Where do you think the largest gaps are in their knowledge base after purchasing Ghromman, Maxwell and Hibar? I haven't seen any purchase of raw materials production or precursor material production.
 
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I don't think there's been an explicit one given. But in the Q2 transcript, Musk stated that "the trend is very clearly toward being able to get to 10,000 vehicles a week, of which that would be -- there is rough numbers like 8,300 to 8,600 Model 3s and the balance in S and X". One assumes that those are peak, very-end-of-the-year rates. They averaged at 6141/wk at Fremont in Q3. If one assumes 7k/wk peak Fremont rate at the end of the year, then that'd be a 1,3-1,6k/wk peak GF3 rate at the end of the year.

IIRC, he was answering a question specifically about Fremont when he stated they could get to 10,000 per week. It seemed difficult at the time, and even less likely now, so possibly (maybe even probably) he mispoke and was referring to total production including Fremont plus GF3.
 
I don't think there's been an explicit one given. But in the Q2 transcript, Musk stated that "the trend is very clearly toward being able to get to 10,000 vehicles a week, of which that would be -- there is rough numbers like 8,300 to 8,600 Model 3s and the balance in S and X". One assumes that those are peak, very-end-of-the-year rates. They averaged at 6141/wk at Fremont in Q3. If one assumes 7k/wk peak Fremont rate at the end of the year, then that'd be a 1,3-1,6k/wk peak GF3 rate at the end of the year.

Average quarterly rate is not a good measure of end of quarter build rate if the rate is changing. Numbers and efficiency vary, however 7k looks very feasible before end of year.


Q1: 62,950
Q2: 72,531 (9,581)
Q3: 79,837 (7,306)

Assume an 80% rate of build efficency compared to previous quarter.

At 13 weeks
7,306 = .5×a×13^2
a=86 cars/week rate increase in Q3
Rate increase per week over a quarter = 13×86=1,118.
79,837/13=6,141 / wk
Q3 exit rate: 6,700 (6,141+ 0.5×1,118)
Q4 exit rate: 7,594 (6,700 + 0.8×1,118)

Assuming 12 week production
a=101.5 cars per week increase x 12 = 1,218 cars per week increase over the quarter.
79,837/12=6,653 average mid Q3
Exit Q3: 7,262 = 6,653 + 0.5 ×1,218
Exit Q4: 8,236 = 7,262 + 0.8 × 1,218

Hat tip to @Artful Dodger for the graph that made me start down this line of thought.
 
ED4: Although, that's Superchargers for the past two months in Texas. It looks like Texas had been mostly stagnant for the three months prior, with respect to Superchargers - a fair bit of new construction but not openings. I wonder if the under-construction ones are sitting around waiting for V3s to show up, like the Canadian ones are.
OT, but it's Saturday morning -
Tesla seems to be pretty delinquent in updating their location maps. A shiny new 12-stall Supercharger site just went live not 3 miles from my house :D:D:D It has never even warranted a gray pin on the map and it still doesn’t show up. (not V3 BTW).
Supercharger - Webster, TX

I’ll probably never use it, but it’s nice to know there’s an option if my HPWC goes on the fritz. There are a lot of condos/townhouses in the area, so it might encourage new Tesla ownership for those folks.
 
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OT, but it's Saturday morning -
Tesla seems to be pretty delinquent in updating their location maps. A shiny new 10-stall Supercharger site just went live not 3 miles from my house :D:D:D It has never even warranted a gray pin on the map and it still doesn’t show up. (not V3 BTW).
Supercharger - Webster, TX

I never use the Tesla map except to see what's listed as "upcoming" - which isn't a comprehensive list, as you note! Supercharge.info is a lot more useful. :)
 
Sure on the original Model S they used a lot of off the shelf parts... But, what parts is it going to bring the cost down of that Tesla uses now?

Tesla is customizing just about everything. They design/make their own seats and steering wheels, they designed custom calipers on the Model 3 to decrease drag, they just applied for patents for even newer/more efficient seats, wipers, and power steering units.

Shoot even their tires are custom.

They aren't like GM where they order most of the car from LG and just assemble it.

The super-bottle on the Model 3 is another: reservoir, valves, control, etc... all in one unit. It doesn't actually do anything the discrete parts can't, but it's cheaper and more compact to make it one assembly.
 
The layouts look like what I'd expect from a network targeting shorter range cars that might need more frequent local charging (and perhaps replace lack of home charging) vs. one that's working to enable long range travel.

Those superchargers look to be anywhere from 40-90 miles apart, start at critical road junctions around the cities, and then spread evenly throughout the area.

The other chargers are clustered around the cities, and then very inconsistent along the highways.

Here’s what it looks like in my Theater of Operations according to
PlugShare. Edit: (And yes, every EVGo I’ve looked at is 50 kW and $0.30/min:eek::eek::eek: . Obviously a last resort).

Superchargers:
View attachment 462822

Combined EVGo, EA and Blink CCS:

View attachment 462823
 
The layouts look like what I'd expect from a network targeting shorter range cars that might need more frequent local charging (and perhaps replace lack of home charging) vs. one that's working to enable long range travel.

Those superchargers look to be anywhere from 40-90 miles apart, start at critical road junctions around the cities, and then spread evenly throughout the area.

The other chargers are clustered around the cities, and then very inconsistent along the highways.
EA is all in with WalMart, so their charger distribution is heavily influenced by WalMart locations.
 
Just back from 2 weeks in London - some anecdotal comments.

More EVs around than a year ago and quite a few Teslas - surprisingly mainly Model X. Only three Model 3s.

Picked up a hire car and said I'd wanted an EV but they were almost impossible to rent. The assistant then pointed out a Model S but added:- "They are old tech and can't even get to Scotland" (400miles odd). I said that you'd only need one charge en route but that didn't convince her so I gave up........ (was in a rush)

Met a couple with a week-old Model S - loved it of course but interestingly he said he'd come out of a 'beast of BMW'; had spent more than ever on a car and got it because he'd hired a Tesla in Florida. There's your ripple effect..... (also added the neighbours were happy as he'd gone from the noisiest car in the street to the quietest!)

I saw a sad (indicative?) sight - an out-of-order slow public charger clinging the side of a busy highway (with parking on the sidewalk?!) literally covered in car and exhaust dust - revenge of the ICE-age?!

Hired a manual Fiat 500 with a horrid illegible retro dashboard and was so gald to get back into our i3 on return...
 
Just back from 2 weeks in London - some anecdotal comments.

More EVs around than a year ago and quite a few Teslas - surprisingly mainly Model X. Only three Model 3s.

Picked up a hire car and said I'd wanted an EV but they were almost impossible to rent. The assistant then pointed out a Model S but added:- "They are old tech and can't even get to Scotland" (400miles odd). I said that you'd only need one charge en route but that didn't convince her so I gave up........ (was in a rush)

Met a couple with a week-old Model S - loved it of course but interestingly he said he'd come out of a 'beast of BMW'; had spent more than ever on a car and got it because he'd hired a Tesla in Florida. There's your ripple effect..... (also added the neighbours were happy as he'd gone from the noisiest car in the street to the quietest!)

I saw a sad (indicative?) sight - an out-of-order slow public charger clinging the side of a busy highway (with parking on the sidewalk?!) literally covered in car and exhaust dust - revenge of the ICE-age?!

Hired a manual Fiat 500 with a horrid illegible retro dashboard and was so gald to get back into our i3 on return...

Rental agencies here are also so incredibly backwards on EVs. Impossible to rent an EV from most of them. One place had one Zoe for rent, and didn't bother to tell customers that it can't charge at our (DC) fast chargers.

Everyone, every time they go on vacation, even if they ultimately have to settle for an ICE, should complain to the rental agency about their lack of good EV options.
 
A popular myth, but the reality is that by and large the Soviets only got the "scraps" left behind by Operation Paperclip, and they shut them out of their rocketry programme pretty quickly. :) None of what the Germans in the USSR worked on ever became part of an operational system and Germans were shut out of the rocketry programme there entirely by 1951.

I think a lot of people simply had trouble coming to terms with the notion that those "turnip farmers" in Russia were capable of achieving great technological feats. Much easier to just assert that, no actually, it was Germans in Russia who did it all ;) Especially as the US had to increasingly rely on figures like von Braun to salvage their flailing rocketry programme.

space_launch_system.png
As usual, the mouseover text is worth finding too:
"The SLS head engineer plans to invite Shania Twain to stand under the completed prototype, then tell her, 'I don't expect you to date me just because I'm a rocket scientist, but you've gotta admit--this is pretty ****ing impressive."