Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Some of us (including me) are financially independent and have no income.

I have two choices. Borrow while it’s still in the 200’s or suck it up and sell some at the current ridiculous valuation.

Or sell some when it goes to 240, buy some back at 225, sell it again at 240 or 235, buy it back at 225 or whatever and so on and so on. Rinse and repeat all the way up to 4000 or whatever. Use the volatility to your advantage. Keep accumulating.

 

[Pezpunk]

The macro market has been sliding downward over the last hour. But not TSLA. Somebody must know something.

anyone who's ever driven a Tesla knows something.

 

[elasalle]

Stock price is up. I give credit to the announcement that clapping coconuts will be available as a low velocity noise.

True, even Taycan can't do coconuts

Is Ferrari Farts too much to ask

 

[SteveG3]

Calling it now....this 2019 prediction will be added to the dumbest predictions of all time:
-
- “Television won’t hold any market it captures after the six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” (Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946)
- "The Beatles have no future in show business" (Decca Records executive, 1962)
- "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home" (Ken Olsen - Digital Equipment President, 1977)
- "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share". (Steve Balmer, 2007)
- "I'm lowering my price target for Amazon from $78 to $25 a share because of the revised sales outlook" (analyst Allyson Rodgers, 2001)
- "Amazon will run out of money this year" (Lehman Brothers analyst Ravi Suria, 2001)
- "Tesla will lose 80% of its value or disappear" (Scott Galloway, NYU Professor, 2019)

One thing I realized several years ago due to my experience with Tesla, plenty of historical seemingly ridiculously misinformed/inaccurate statements were very likely not colossal inabilities to imagine the future, but, rather colossal attempts to misinform the public in a privately motivated attempt to extend some the lifetime of incumbent products, forms of popular culture, ways of thinking, etc.

 

[StealthP3D]

His 2018 Plan vests based on market cap plus revenue/EBITDA milestones. They're already clearing the first revenue / EBITDA milestones, but the market cap ones start at 100b.

In other words, Elon is getting real close to being paid.

No wonder he's being so quiet lately.

 

[StealthP3D]

One thing I realized several years ago due to my experience with Tesla, plenty historical of ridiculously misinformed/inaccurate statements were very likely not colossal inabilities to imagine the future, but, rather colossal attempts to misinform the public in a privately motivated attempt to extend some the lifetime of incumbent products, popular culture, ways of thinking, etc.

Exactly!! I saw this first hand in brilliant Technicolor with Qualcomm in 1996, 1997 and 1998. Most of the FUD came from big brokerage houses (which of course had strong buy ratings on Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola and other losers of the new technology). Some of the FUD came directly from the companies mentioned. Then 1999 happened. Being patient and accumulating paid off BIG TIME!

You cannot stop an idea whose time has come.

Edit: I'll add: Before 1999 happened, I was down over 30% on my QCOM shares. Did I whine to investor message boards? Of course not, I bought more and remained bullish! It's a gift really, you just have to take advantage of it. Some people got scared and sold at low prices. That's why the FUDsters do what they do.

 

[elasalle]

Steve Jobs Ghost on Twitter

As pressure from regulators heated up, VW came up with a genius plan: They would issue a recall and "fix" all affected cars, hoping regulators would stop investigating But there was no fix. They just improved the cheating, disabling pollution control if the wheel was turned

+video in link

 

[DFibRL8R]

In other words, Elon is getting real close to being paid.

No wonder he's being so quiet lately.

Market cap is currently 42.6B, seems a way to go until 100B?

 

[KSilver2000]

Could it be from news of the acquisition supporting Tesla’s ambition to makes its own cells? Volume is just about average.

 

[KarenRei]

In other words, Elon is getting real close to being paid.

No wonder he's being so quiet lately.

Still have to hit 100B market cap. He has to hit both a market cap *and* an operational milestone in order to receive a new tranche of stock:

Proxy Statement

We're quite far from that at present.

 

[scaesare]

There will be no model 3 killer. It's an awesome car on an absolute scale, and the manufacturing costs for it will only continue to decrease.

And if there is, it will be introduced by.... Tesla.

 

[StealthP3D]

Still have to hit 100B market cap. He has to hit both a market cap *and* an operational milestone in order to receive a new tranche of stock:

Proxy Statement

We're quite far from that at present.

Not to my way of looking at it. Market cap just needs a little more than a double and "close to being paid" is through Elon's eyes. You have to realize how long he's been at this with basically zero pay. He's real close now. I'm dead serious.

 

[StealthP3D]

Market cap is currently 42.6B, seems a way to go until 100B?

See my previous comment. You need to step away from the minute-by-minute ticker to see what I'm talking about. When this thing really starts rallying, when there is capitulation, it will make your head spin. Day after day your head will spin. Then it will correct before it starts making your head spin again and again. Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

[Antares Nebula]

For those looking at leaps and long term calls, you can see this just published in depth blog:

Tesla in 2020 & 2021: My bet on TSLA Jan'22 Call Options

by @FrankSG. See also his recent post/thread:

Tesla in 2020 & 2021: My bet on TSLA Jan'22 Call Options

(Personally, I'm disinclined to purchase leaps/long term calls at this point for previously stated reasons.)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Market cap is currently 42.6B, seems a way to go until 100B?

Not as far as you'd think. Conservatively, we should be hovering around $400 now looking for direction.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today's closing

Detroit automakers & Tesla

--0.69% F
--0.46% GM
+--0.0% FCAU
+2.72% TSLA

 

[CanadaEV]

Could it be from news of the acquisition supporting Tesla’s ambition to makes its own cells? Volume is just about average.

I doubt more than 0.1% of the population understands the importance of almost everything Tesla does.
It has been tough for decades to understand anything about any kind of battery. Most people have definite beliefs about the 'rights' and 'wrongs' about them. In almost all cases, these beliefs are myths generated by other people who want to sound expert, but aren't. Even the most educated battery specialists know batteries as extremely complex systems with equally complex behaviours, and cannot give simple answers.
Now that batteries are getting the attention they deserve, they are improving very fast.
So when Tesla aims to produce its own batteries, most people equate it in importance to, say, selling insurance. They can't imagine this could be the prospect of controlling energy storage markets for decades to come. Besides 'car company', ...no, 'tech company', ...no, 'software company'... Tesla has always been a battery company, even though they haven't had the resources or expertise to produce them independently, until now.
Whoever does understand often doesn't have a lot of money, and would never be able to convince anyone else to invest theirs.
Tesla is approaching an exponential development in a non-tech field. It will probably go through a massive bubble when things like battery tech and foreign production capacities start to materialize out of left field.

 

[3Victoria]

Steve Jobs Ghost on Twitter

As pressure from regulators heated up, VW came up with a genius plan: They would issue a recall and "fix" all affected cars, hoping regulators would stop investigating But there was no fix. They just improved the cheating, disabling pollution control if the wheel was turned

Yeah, the 'fix' was for the cheat device ... it wasn't clever enough. Unfortunately, the VW story appears to be the tip of the ICEberg.

 

[UncaNed]

I doubt more than 0.1% of the population understands the importance of almost everything Tesla does.
It has been tough for decades to understand anything about any kind of battery. Most people have definite beliefs about the 'rights' and 'wrongs' about them. In almost all cases, these beliefs are myths generated by other people who want to sound expert, but aren't. Even the most educated battery specialists know batteries as extremely complex systems with equally complex behaviours, and cannot give simple answers.
Now that batteries are getting the attention they deserve, they are improving very fast.
So when Tesla aims to produce its own batteries, most people equate it in importance to, say, selling insurance. They can't imagine this could be the prospect of controlling energy storage markets for decades to come. Besides 'car company', ...no, 'tech company', ...no, 'software company'... Tesla has always been a battery company, even though they haven't had the resources or expertise to produce them independently, until now.
Whoever does understand often doesn't have a lot of money, and would never be able to convince anyone else to invest theirs.
Tesla is approaching an exponential development in a non-tech field. It will probably go through a massive bubble when things like battery tech and foreign production capacities start to materialize out of left field.

.1% of the population is a HUGE number of people.

 

[DFibRL8R]

See my previous comment. You need to step away from the minute-by-minute ticker to see what I'm talking about. When this thing really starts rallying, when there is capitulation, it will make your head spin. Day after day your head will spin. Then it will correct before it starts making your head spin again and again. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Thanks, interesting optimistic theory but I wouldn't ignore the inherent risks. I too am optimistic about the company, investing in TSLA since I placed my reservation in 2011, now with a sizable portion of my net worth in TSLA. As to how the growth will happen (slow steady climb -v- short squeeze -v- extreme ups and downs with short manipulation) is anyone's guess. Tesla the company could start hitting it's stride just as the general economy tanks and what most longs feel should happen might not pan out.