Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Hope this story blows up. Some leaked images and 8mins of videos of those monkeys, dogs and cats that VW are using to test their ”clean diesel”:
Monkeys scream out in pain in secret footage recorded at 'German lab' | Metro News


PRI_89839949.jpg

PRI_89857719.jpg




This is from the same company that makes a vegan car with leather manual...

That's a real horror show. I don't know what kind of person would not quit their job before having to perform such disgusting acts.
 
4Runner and Land Cruiser are either ICEv residual value Kings or close to it.

In Los Angeles 4Runner TRDs go for over MSRP new.

4Runner is far from typical ICEv.

True. To compare residual values it's important to stay within the same general class of vehicle (in this case passenger cars, not trucks) and especially important to stay within the same price range. It's well known that more expensive cars depreciate faster than basic transportation.
 
Was there a sense of when volume production would be achieved for Model Y after initial start in Q1?

That's really the key information.

Nope
Assume it all depends on how that goes, and given Tesla's experience with "production hell," no one is getting ahead of the ball there. Just my assumption.
 
My advice, despite the 'CleanTechnica' article, ......Don't count your model Ys before they really hatch.

I guess it depends upon what you mean by "count your Model Y's before they really hatch".

Because, as a lifelong investor, I've learned that superior returns come from being forward-looking. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in this endeavor but only by luck have I made superior returns when I waited for an idea or rumor to prove itself viable or true before investing in it. Investing is a series of educated assumptions, you don't make great returns by waiting for something to become common knowledge.
 
Was there a sense of when volume production would be achieved for Model Y after initial start in Q1?

That's really the key information.

We will know by Christmas how fast GF3 is ramping. That will give a strong indication of how fast new lines can be ramped.

On one hand, model Y ramp will have experienced staff already familiar with co-workers. On the other hand, some processes entirely new, such as automated wiring harness install. Cancels out, maybe.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ZachShahan
Addendum to our article: I think it's important to remember this is about production. Production ≠ deliveries. Just to try to make sure speculation and expectations don't get out of hand, we will publish another piece to make this point more strongly.

Q1 start of limited production and Q3 start of deliveries seems plenty logical/possible to me.
 
I guess it depends upon what you mean by "count your Model Y's before they really hatch".

Because, as a lifelong investor, I've learned that superior returns come from being forward-looking. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in this endeavor but only by luck have I made superior returns when I waited for an idea or rumor to prove itself viable or true before investing in it. Investing is a series of educated assumptions, you don't make great returns by waiting for something to become common knowledge.

Seconded. It’s not like they will die in shell and fail to hatch. Worst case is a bit of wait time.
 
Addendum to our article: I think it's important to remember this is about production. Production ≠ deliveries. Just to try to make sure speculation and expectations don't get out of hand, we will publish another piece to make this point more strongly.

Q1 start of limited production and Q3 start of deliveries seems plenty logical/possible to me.

If that's how this plays out, Q3 and Q4 will probably be blow-out quarters. But I was kind of thinking Tesla might try to use early, high margin sales of Model Y to help support the typically lower sales of the first half of the year.
 
Addendum to our article: I think it's important to remember this is about production. Production ≠ deliveries. Just to try to make sure speculation and expectations don't get out of hand, we will publish another piece to make this point more strongly.

Q1 start of limited production and Q3 start of deliveries seems plenty logical/possible to me.

Thanks for offering more context to your information. Next week might also offer up some more clues with the shareholder letter and conference call.
 
Addendum to our article: I think it's important to remember this is about production. Production ≠ deliveries. Just to try to make sure speculation and expectations don't get out of hand, we will publish another piece to make this point more strongly.

Q1 start of limited production and Q3 start of deliveries seems plenty logical/possible to me.

So do you mean that beyond test runs, completed cars would not be produced in Q1 or Q2? After all, If they are producing complete cars without defects in any sort of sustained quantity why would they not deliver them to customers?
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Artful Dodger
If that's how this plays out, Q3 and Q4 will probably be blow-out quarters. But I was kind of thinking Tesla might try to use early, high margin sales of Model Y to help support the typically lower sales of the first half of the year.

Yeah, we'll see. I like that idea. OTOH, not sure how much "limited production" is and how long it takes to get through that to real production. Model 3 limited production was quite limited, but I think we all expect more from Model Y.
 
So do you mean that beyond test runs, completed cars would not be produced in Q1 or Q2? After all, If they are producing complete cars without defects in any sort of sustained quantity why would they not deliver them to customers?

We don't have precise details on who the vehicles will be for or how many — "limited production" is the key phrase, which could mean different things.

Frankly, we haven't even heard if early Model Ys will be for Tesla/SpaceX employees like with Model 3 (unless I missed something). Will Tesla start producing for employees first again to slowly work out bugs? Or will they feel confident to jump into Model 3–like production and deliveries? Don't know.
 
ARK dumping TSLA for ROKU lol
View attachment 466542
ARK also sold more yesterday (about 30k shares). I think it's part of their normal strategy of buy low, sell high to maintain proper weightings in their portfolio. They will keep trimming as it goes higher, as they bought a ton of shares near the bottom. And they will add if it comes back down. They expect volatility with Tesla. ARK folks are pretty smart and understand both fundamentals and technicals and trade the volatility to deliver alpha for their shareholders.

(Also, Robinhood holders have been selling aggressively the last few days.) Have to understand that many of these folks are traders, and stock is near multi-week/month highs. Profit taking is expected, especially before earnings. Doesn't mean that the stock will go down.
 
  • Informative
  • Like
Reactions: SpaceCash and BBone
Probably testing some sort of internal changes, as the body is overall 3-ish.

The CleanTechnica article suggested that the Y is going to have the new wiring harness and a different battery pack:

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start ~Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak) | CleanTechnica

"Another fun little tidbit of technical information we have been told is that the Model Y will indeed use the new revolutionary flex-cable circuitry that reduces the length of wires needed throughout the car and also gives every component a redundant connection to the battery and the computer. This makes it possible for robots to install more of the “guts and veins” of the car and cut down on the manual labor involved in installing cables. As Elon Musk has said multiple times, robots suck at placing normal cables into the vehicle.

Many Model Y components will be similar to those in the Model 3, but not identical, including the battery packs."​

I believe the crash test is testing a Model Y test mule with the new wiring harness, the new battery pack and power train.

Both changes result in significant internal changes to the chassis, most of which are not visible externally, plus Tesla would want to know how the new high voltage bus performs in crashes.

Mechanical crash safety is the primary purpose of crash testing, but electrical crash safety is just as important: an exposed 400V DC bus is dangerous.
 
Last edited:
Both changes result in significant internal changes to the chassis, most of which are not visible externally, plus Tesla would want to know how the new high voltage bus performs in crashes.

Mechanical crash safety is the primary purpose of crash testing, but electrical crash safety is just as important: an exposed 400V DC bus is dangerous.

I don't think there is a HV bus. In fact I don't expect HV wiring to change much, if at all. The low, or mid, voltage bus is a different story. It could be 12 or 48 volts, but my guess is it will still be 12 volts as that is what the majority of the parts are currently designed for.