Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachShahan]

The CleanTechnica article suggested that the Y is going to have the new wiring harness and a different battery pack:

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start ~Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak) | CleanTechnica

"Another fun little tidbit of technical information we have been told is that the Model Y will indeed use the new revolutionary flex-cable circuitry that reduces the length of wires needed throughout the car and also gives every component a redundant connection to the battery and the computer. This makes it possible for robots to install more of the “guts and veins” of the car and cut down on the manual labor involved in installing cables. As Elon Musk has said multiple times, robots suck at placing normal cables into the vehicle.

Many Model Y components will be similar to those in the Model 3, but not identical, including the battery packs."​

Yes, that was confirmed. The new wiring will not be in the Model 3.

I believe the crash test is testing a Model Y test mule with the new wiring harness, the new battery pack and power train.

Good point. That somehow didn't cross my mind.

 

[Unpilot]

The CleanTechnica article suggested that the Y is going to have the new wiring harness and a different battery pack:

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start ~Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak) | CleanTechnica

"Another fun little tidbit of technical information we have been told is that the Model Y will indeed use the new revolutionary flex-cable circuitry that reduces the length of wires needed throughout the car and also gives every component a redundant connection to the battery and the computer. This makes it possible for robots to install more of the “guts and veins” of the car and cut down on the manual labor involved in installing cables. As Elon Musk has said multiple times, robots suck at placing normal cables into the vehicle.

Many Model Y components will be similar to those in the Model 3, but not identical, including the battery packs."​

I believe the crash test is testing a Model Y test mule with the new wiring harness, the new battery pack and power train.

Both changes result in significant internal changes to the chassis, most of which are not visible externally, plus Tesla would want to know how the new high voltage bus performs in crashes.

Mechanical crash safety is the primary purpose of crash testing, but electrical crash safety is just as important: an exposed 400V DC bus is dangerous.

Just one more in a long line of examples about how far ahead Tesla is...and the focus they put on safety. "no yellow tape my arse"

 

[sparcs]

Yes, that was confirmed. The new wiring will not be in the Model 3.

Including GF3?

Tesla had indicated that GF3 would be a next generation production.

From the Q2 shareholder letter regarding GF3:

Gigafactory Shanghai continues to take shape, and in Q2 we started to move machinery into the facility for the first phase of production there. This will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line with capacity of 150,000 units per year – the second generation of the Model 3 production process.

 

[Fact Checking]

Addendum to our article: I think it's important to remember this is about production. Production ≠ deliveries. Just to try to make sure speculation and expectations don't get out of hand, we will publish another piece to make this point more strongly.

Q1 start of limited production and Q3 start of deliveries seems plenty logical/possible to me.

Note that Tesla's most recent guidance from 2.5 months ago is that the Model Y is going to launch by August 31 2020:

This is the most recent guidance Tesla gave about the launch of the Model Y, in the Q2'2019 update letter:

• "We remain on track to launch local production of the Model 3 in China by the end of the year and Model Y in Fremont by fall of 2020."

This was reiterated in the 10Q filing, two and a half months ago:

• "Our next production vehicle, slated for launch by fall 2020, will be Model Y, a compact SUV built on the Model 3 platform."

This is the 'launch', i.e. first deliveries - not mass production.

"By fall 2020" is "by September 2020" - i.e. the currently guided deadline for Model Y launch is 2 months into Q3 of 2020.

The Model 3 "Launch Event" was in July 2017, and it involved first deliveries to employees. (The ramp-up was infamously delayed by ~6 months by battery pack troubles, but that's a different story.)

So Tesla's current self-imposed deadline for first Model Y customer deliveries is August 31 2020.

Any earlier guidance about "late 2020" or "Q1 2021" is overridden by the newest guidance, and Elon's guesses about volume production come with the usual caveat of Elon time and thus have low information value.

My point is: if Tesla indeed starts Model Y production late Q1 (March), there's very little reason to not deliver those units (to employees, initially) - this is what they did with the Model 3 as well, and it allowed them to iron out early bugs.

BTW., "no panel gaps" are not a ramp-up quality, they are a technology that Tesla now has for the Model 3 and likely for the Model Y as well - even in the early stages of production.

Even if they were going to employees, the early Model 3 units were reported as "production" and "deliveries", showed up in the delivery reports and quarterly earnings reports, and generated some revenue.

So if we go by the Model 3 ramp-up example: deliveries = production, with just a few days delay. Of course the rate of the ramp-up and the timeline of mass production is unknowable.

 

[mongo]

I don't think there is a HV bus. In fact I don't expect HV wiring to change much, if at all. The low, or mid, voltage bus is a different story. It could be 12 or 48 volts, but my guess is it will still be 12 volts as that is what the majority of the parts are currently designed for.

The rigid bus setup needs 48V to reduce the main power cross sectional area. The modules connected can drop the circuits they are switching to 12V for end items that need it, assuming they didn't already make 48V versions of the lighting and motor controllers (window, seat, wiper).

 

[ZachShahan]

Note that Tesla's most recent guidance from 2.5 months ago is that the Model Y is going to launch by August 31 2020:



The Model 3 "Launch Event" was in July 2017, and it involved first deliveries to employees. (The ramp-up was infamously delayed by ~6 months by battery pack troubles, but that's a different story.)

So Tesla's current self-imposed deadline for first Model Y customer deliveries is August 31 2020.

Any earlier guidance about "late 2020" or "Q1 2021" is overridden by the newest guidance, and Elon's guesses about volume production come with the usual caveat of Elon time and thus have low information value.

My point is: if Tesla indeed starts Model Y production late Q1 (March), there's very little reason to not deliver those units (to employees, initially) - this is what they did with the Model 3 as well, and it allowed them to iron out early bugs.

Even if they were going to employees, the early Model 3 units were reported as "production" and "deliveries", showed up in the delivery reports and quarterly earnings reports, and generated some revenue.

So if we go by the Model 3 ramp-up example: deliveries = production, with just a few days delay. Of course the rate of the ramp-up and the timeline of mass production is unknowable.

Thanks. When/where is that August 31 guidance from?

I'm personally bullish on Model Y production/deliveries, but would still be cautious about expectations until Elon says more.

"Limited production" could start in Q1 and the vehicles delivered at some point in Q2. Tesla is not going to deliver them the same day and will need time to test, fix issues, etc. With every model, has been small batches in initial months. Model Y may be different, or not. We'll see.

 

[ZachShahan]

Including GF3?

Tesla had indicated that GF3 would be a next generation production.

From the Q2 shareholder letter regarding GF3:

Don't know about Model 3 production in GF3, but it seems logical to work in there if the challenge is simply the production line, not the car design. Based on that quote, I assume you are right and GF3 Model 3 will use the new wiring system.

 

[Yuri_G]

Brace yourselves. The skeleton smart summon videos are coming...

 

[Carl Raymond]

BTW., "no panel gaps" are not a ramp-up quality, they are a technology that Tesla now has for the Model 3 and likely for the Model Y as well - even in the early stages of production.

Thanks FC. Got a link to any further info on this technology?

I was under the impression it was an iterative QA process. Feedback from where gaps are on the current output, tweak the settings on the machines producing the next output. In this way the gaps soon become uniform, but you can’t produce a perfect car straight off.

 

[Fact Checking]

Thanks. When/where is that August 31 guidance from?

It's from the Q2 10-Q SEC filing:

SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.

"Our next production vehicle, slated for launch by fall 2020, will be Model Y, a compact SUV built on the Model 3 platform."​

I understood "by fall" as "by August 31" (I.e. before fall) - but on a second thought if it's "by fall's end" then "by November 30"?

For example "by nightfall" means "before nightfall", and "by summertime" generally means before summertime. But "by Friday" typically is meant by the end of Friday - but "by next week" is typically "before next week".

Does "by fall" always include or exclude fall, or is it ambiguous?

Edit: plus as @mongo notes there's the ambiguity of "fall": meteorological fall (September 1), astronomical fall (September 23), financial fall quarter (ends September 31)?

 

[Compton]

Hope this story blows up. Some leaked images and 8mins of videos of those monkeys, dogs and cats that VW are using to test their ”clean diesel”:
Monkeys scream out in pain in secret footage recorded at 'German lab' | Metro News

This is from the same company that makes a vegan car with leather manual...

"LPT is a family-owned contract-testing laboratory carrying out toxicity testing for pharmaceutical, industrial and agro-chemical companies from all over the world in order to meet the requirements of governments and regulatory agencies."

 

[LN1_Casey]

Brace yourselves. The skeleton smart summon videos are coming...

We all know that Overlord Musk probably planned for something like this. It's probably why V10 was released just before the start of October. xD

 

[Artful Dodger]

if i'm not mistaken, I believe that was the 7th green day in a row. VERY unusual. when was the last time that happened?

June 18, 2018

 

[Fact Checking]

Thanks FC. Got a link to any further info on this technology?

I was under the impression it was an iterative QA process. Feedback from where gaps are on the current output, tweak the settings on the machines producing the next output. In this way the gaps soon become uniform, but you can’t produce a perfect car straight off.

My source is ... gulp ... Bob Lutz and Ferdinand Piëch:

Bob Lutz Talks Panel Gaps, Tesla, and Why Every Detail Matters

'Volkswagen, in the eighties, was the first Western producer to out-do the Japanese in assembly precision. I asked then-CEO Ferdinand Piëch how they did it: "I got all the production execs in a room and told them they had six weeks to achieve consistent 4mm gaps or they'd all be fired. It was easy!"'​

I believe there's three key elements to good panel gaps:

• the carmaker has to care about perfect panel gaps,
• panels have to be stamped precisely,
• and they have to have the proper sensors to verify panel placement systematically

There was an Elon tidbit last year where he disclosed that every Model 3 is precision measured via laser instruments to within 0.01 mm, hundreds of times along the assembly lines, which would be excellent instrumentation to drive the QA process.

I believe early Model 3 panel gap problems were due to sub-par, imprecise panel stamping (this too was disclosed by Elon in one of the interviews) - they had a new press line for the Model 3. I don't expect this to happen with Model Y panels.

 

[30seconds]

It’s incredible that the automotive news media haven’t done a proper comparison of the Model 3P vs any of the similar or more expensive EVs being launched.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Porsche, Audi, Mercedes, etc. forbid it

 

[Mike Smith]

Hyundai, Kia earmark $760 million to settle U.S. lawsuits over engine fires

'The NHTSA this year opened a fresh investigation into 3 million Hyundai and Kia vehicles after reviewing reports of more than 3,000 fires that injured more than 100 people.'

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

It's from the Q2 10-Q SEC filing:

SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.

"Our next production vehicle, slated for launch by fall 2020, will be Model Y, a compact SUV built on the Model 3 platform."​

I understood "by fall" as "by August 31" (I.e. before fall) - but on a second thought if it's "by fall's end" then "by November 30"?

For example "by nightfall" means "before nightfall", and "by summertime" generally means before summertime. But "by Friday" typically is meant by the end of Friday - but "by next week" is typically "before next week".

Does "by fall" always include or exclude fall, or is it ambiguous?

Edit: plus as @mongo notes there's the ambiguity of "fall": meteorological fall (September 1), astronomical fall (September 23), financial fall quarter (ends September 31)?

Fall starts in March in Australia . Right hand drive Model Y’s Q1 2020!

 

[Krugerrand]

I believe early Model 3 panel gap problems were due to sub-par, imprecise panel stamping (this too was disclosed by Elon in one of the interviews) - they had a new press line for the Model 3. I don't expect this to happen with Model Y panels.

That’s not how it works.

Die sets don’t get bought off by a company until the vendor has produced sample parts that meet strict tolerance criteria at a high percentage point, because once the dies are completed it is not an easy or quick task to make any significant changes to result in equally significant changes to the part. Particularly body panels.

As well, body panels don’t need to be ‘perfect’ and actually won’t be ‘perfect’ for a quality vehicle to be produced with consistent panel gaps.

Biggest concerns for class A body panels are surface quality and distortions that would be accentuated once painted and shown in the light. Dimensions are the easier part, but still don’t have to be ‘perfect’ just within tolerances.

Indeed, striving for ‘perfection’ can be the enemy of being able to put together a very good vehicle.

A new press line doesn’t play any bigger role than an older press line. Same issues can happen with both. I could actually argue that a new press line has advantages.

Inconsistent panel gaps are mostly going to be the result of assembly errors, underlying structure errors, mistakes made in original design calculations, distortions created by the assembly process and the like. Even the painting process can cause distortions.

Basically, the kind of stuff to be expected to pop up when piecing together thousands of parts for the first time. This isn’t Meccano.

 

[Mike Smith]

 

[Runarbt]

Hyundai, Kia earmark $760 million to settle U.S. lawsuits over engine fires

'The NHTSA this year opened a fresh investigation into 3 million Hyundai and Kia vehicles after reviewing reports of more than 3,000 fires that injured more than 100 people.'

Oh.. that quote is GOLD. should have had this during the sugar-storm we had with Tesla catching sugar a few years ago. ;-)
will keep it, and throw at the shorts if/when needed..