Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

I also deleveraged my position. It's too risky going full steam in ER. I learnt a lot from the past Quarters.

Do you think the record lasting green run will continue Friday Skivi? Maybe it peters out, running into a deleveraging headwind.

 

[skivi]

It can be, but i think it's stays more in the same range or goes a little bit down.

Not advice, for TSLA everything can be possible.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Notably, at least for some, having power won't fix the internet. We lost power for ~44 hours. Used a gas generator(I know, I know, we're waiting on permitting again for our Solar+Powerwall order because they forgot the power wall the first time) and got power for the whole house, but internet was still down, presumably because whatever Comcast node it was connected to was down.

Power never goes out in space. Jus' sayin'...

SpaceX could upgrade Starlink constellation with tens of thousands of satellites

 

[SOULPEDL]

I also deleveraged my position. It's too risky going full steam in ER. I learnt a lot from the past Quarters.

We hope for a squeeze, but seen this movie many times now. I basically got in too deep ($420 hooked me) so now I have some cash at least. I'm only trading 10-20% of total long $TSLA holdings.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So is Tesla doubling down on “the Wave” delivery pattern this quarter? Essentially dedicating all of production for the front half of the quarter to overseas deliveries and allocating nothing to North America

If by 'overseas' you mean the Netherlands, then yes all Model 3s are going there... until the last ship leaves everyone else starves. Okay, okay, a big chunk though.
Cheers!

 

[SpaceCash]

Since EVERYBODY, bull and bear, seems convinced that it's going to drop after earnings, I don't think it's going to drop after earnings.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Since EVERYBODY, bull and bear, seems convinced that it's going to drop after earnings, I don't think it's going to drop after earnings.

I both hope you're right, and kind of hope you're not. More discounted stocks for me would be appriciated, haha.

I will say I do think the stock will drop post Q3 earnings, but that's mostly bitterness from the manipulations than thinking Tesla is doing poorly. I think anything less than a phenominal report will cause the stock to drop, my guess around the 240-230 range, before the market wises up again within a week or three and goes, "wait."

Now, if they post another drop like after Q2, I think the shorties will abuse that to make it go back to the 220 range, and it may take a while to recover, even with otherwise good news.

My .02.

 

[Tslynk67]

We hope for a squeeze, but seen this movie many times now. I basically got in too deep ($420 hooked me) so now I have some cash at least. I'm only trading 10-20% of total long $TSLA holdings.

It's kind of funny, because a lot of people saw the $420 as a way to make a quick buck. My reaction was anger and disappointment at potentially being forced out of the story and missing out on 5-10x that.

I have no margin, I'm 100% in $TSLA, I can wait (not too long though, eh?).

I do still have my delivery report trade to sell - I'm waiting on that until the last moment. We might get some traction when GF3 is officially open for business (and I also expect that's where Elon's off to), but I may hold those shares through the ER, why not.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm sure Tesla would keep the $100 for the sake of consistency. The fact that the reservationist has some "skin in the game" is a huge benefit.

I don't think that's the game, and I don't think that's the benefit:

Tesla Cyberpunk truck reveal is 4-6 wks away. That's the game.

If they get 200K preorders in Q4, that's $100*200,000 = $20 Million. That's the benefit.

If the 'something else' at the reveal is a Plaid Model S you can put a deposit on, then that's another whole wad of cash.

Roll out some Model Ys in the actual daylight, with the hatchback open, and the extra deposits placed due to the feature reveal is another whole wad of cash. But Model 3 is ALREADY sold out through Q4, so Model Y is coming and that right soon!

These are all for products that are up to a year from delivery. Its free financing.

Cheers!

 

[Carl Raymond]

Since EVERYBODY, bull and bear, seems convinced that it's going to drop after earnings, I don't think it's going to drop after earnings.

If it does drop x dollars, I’m expecting a 2x bounce faster than two laps at ‘the ring’. Nobody actually doubts the growth story, but many think they can play the dip. Gonna laugh hard if there’s a surprise tiny profit and we actually gap up.

 

[SpaceCash]

I both hope you're right, and kind of hope you're not. More discounted stocks for me would be appriciated, haha.

I will say I do think the stock will drop post Q3 earnings, but that's mostly bitterness from the manipulations than thinking Tesla is doing poorly. I think anything less than a phenominal report will cause the stock to drop, my guess around the 240-230 range, before the market wises up again within a week or three and goes, "wait."

Now, if they post another drop like after Q2, I think the shorties will abuse that to make it go back to the 220 range, and it may take a while to recover, even with otherwise good news.

My .02.

Casey I get you, I'll be buying Thursday the 24th in premarket whether we're at 220 or 320.
But not 420, I'd give it a sec to see what's going on at that level

 

[Artful Dodger]

Was that shamwow?View attachment 467226

No, just a sham.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

Btw, Lora trolling for a new hit piece:

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

 

[Causalien]

So I wanted to see what the implication of having GF3 online and starting Model Y production on Q1 will be. Here's the spreadsheet I used.

Assuming End of Year 2020 both Model Y and Shanghai Model 3 ramp to 5000 units/week. Using price's law assuming the final 10% of the time is 50% of the ramp. Disregarded Tesla energy and assuming COGS is 81% of the Revenue. Fixed operating expenses and interest cost. Just a very quick and dirty look at the worst case scenario where all cost structure is similar to Q2 2019.

Imgur

GAAP profitability should be reachable Q3 2020... Assuming shanghai will keep ramping past 3000/week (was 3000/week the old line's max output? Forgot)
With estimated price's law, the ramp looks like this:

Q1 2020: 0-625 Total; 4525
Q2 2020: 625-1250 Total: 12050
Q3 2020: 1250 - 2500 Total: 24100
Q4 2020: 2500 - 5000 Total: 48200

 

[Artful Dodger]

I was just noticing there is so little extended hours TSLA activity, slowest I've ever seen it if I'm seeing what I think I see.

24,372 shares traded after-hrs according to NASDAQ. Low but not crazy low IMO.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Btw, Lora trolling for a new hit piece:

Lora Kolodny on Twitter

There's an interesting answer too:

Replying to @lorakolodny
No problems with @tesla Superchargers.
However, @ElectrifyAm stations, I’ve experienced a 80%+ failure rate. Might be a story to follow up on?

Kyle Conway 康有为 on Twitter

Sigh.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Omg you are TrendTrader reincarnated reincarcerated.

FTFY.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Or he is going to China and the great firewall is on overdrive right now due to HK.

Hi, I'm still here, over the wall
The wall hasn't been able to block me for quite some time now.

Even if I'm beaten, there is no way Elon would be blocked. He could just get several Starlink satellites to point to him directly I guess

 

[EVMeister]

Here in the UK at least, even if 50% of superchargers were out of action at a location you'd have way more chargers there than any alternative chargers. Lora really needs some actual experience with EVs and charging networks, then she might think twice b... Nah, it's Lora. Probably not.