Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

To: Boss Short

Well Boss what the hell do we do now ?

Sincerely
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

Well, just remember, every dip in SP is called "buying opportunity" by the longs.
So, in that spirit, this is the Greatest Shorting Opportunity Ever!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Lol why hasn't everyone put this care bear on ignore by now?

You all know who I'm talking about.

 

[wipster]

Damn, had to miss most of the day due to a prior commitment, thinking I could easily catch up on news, but when I looked at the after hours SP I damn near thought I was going to have a heart attack! Great day for all (except the shorties) thanks to Elon and the entire Tesla team! I'm going to have to buy darker shades as the future is looking pretty bright!

Glad to be a participant in this forum and thanks to all of you for your optimization and great comments, feedback, and humor!

 

[PeterJA]

When are they going to make the "less expensive" vehicles???

When are you going to read Tesla's answer to that question?

Master Plan, Part Deux

 

[Sparky4life]

The issue you fail to grasp is that the majors have huge amounts of capital, money and experience building lots and lots of cars....

 

[Curt Renz]

Analyst upgrades would not be surprising tomorrow or Friday. More importantly, the profit and other good Tesla news may inspire institutions to stop holding back, and instead resume channeling fresh money into TSLA.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I think the three main reasons for the margin and profit beat at Tesla were:

• Significant further production cost reduction on Model 3 in Q3
• Pre Raven S&X discounts had a much larger negative margin impact than we suspected in Q2 (meaning people underestimated the Model 3 margin progress in Q2)
• FX swing QoQ which is unhedged and hard to predict.

 

[StealthP3D]

That’s really incredible. As excited as we all are about the surprise profit, the Model Y pull-forward, good news on autonomy and GF3 are really far more important long term,

There was a lot of negativity on this thread a week or two ago towards even *discussing* the possibility of Model Y being ahead of schedule.

But I guess if Musk says it, it's ok.

This also fits into my observation from earlier this year that Musk had (last year) started to take a new tack with regard to projected timelines, trying to under-promise and over-deliver. Yet, for some reason, many like to pretend that if something happens a certain way 5 times in a row, it will continue to happen that way forever.

 

[elasalle]

Analyst upgrades would not be surprising tomorrow or Friday. More importantly, the profit and other good Tesla news may inspire institutions to stop holding back, and instead resume channeling fresh money into TSLA.

You mean like T.Rowe Price

 

[elasalle]

 

[CalX]

Wasn't expecting this:

Congrats, you won the Tesla bet, as the company just reported a positive net income quarter.



Please send me a link so I can donate $500 to your favorite charity.



Best regards,



Whitney

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I heard they don't even check the brakes when they sell cars.

 

[KSilver2000]

The way we can get to low 200s is a bad Q1 and a big drop in NASDAQ.

I think at least for a while we are now back in 300 being a significant support level, let alone 255.

I’m with you there.

Have to keep in mind that we were all exuberant with Q3 ER last year as well, and then the 50% drop started happening in Q4 even with new developments, including autonomy day in April.

 

[Unpilot]

I heard they don't even check the brakes when they sell cars.

And they install whompy wheels.

 

[brian45011]

So does anybody have a breakdown of the earnings? How did we get such a big beat? 30M from enhanced summon is not much. But anything else from FSD (or other) deferred revenue? How much from credits? And how much due to fundamentals (gross margin, improvements in production efficiency, lower fixed costs, etc.). Would love to see a breakdown of this.

Major difference between 2q19 (-$408 MM net income) vs 3q19 ($143 MM net income) or $551 MM difference:
Gross Profit $157 MM ex credits
Other Income (Expense) $126 MM--Currency Exchange rates?
Restructuring $117 MM
Lower SG&A $53 MM
Reg Credits 23 MM

 

[jhm]

I used to think it would be the presence of chargers all over the place that would do the job. But I think it will be more important just to see EVs on the roads and in showrooms. People will figure out they can charge at home.

You are not far from the kingdom.

 

[AlMc]

If Tesla does that it won't be able to compete in five years or so. There are advancements in batteries that will drop the price in five years. Heck, just the shear volume of manufacturing will drop the costs for the really big players. If Tesla is selling a million a year and other makers are selling 10 million each, who do you think will be able to drop their manufacturing costs more quickly? That's the fight they are in. Not about making a few hundred million profit this quarter.

Everyone else will be selling similar vehicles for a lower price and Tesla won't be able to maintain volumes. Tesla will have to produce lower cost cars to survive.

To complete the mission, (and it is OK with me if I make some money investing in TSLA during that time), Competition is essential. If in 5 years Tesla has many major competitors and has 'only' 17% market share as ARK/Cathi Wood has suggested it will not only be a success for Tesla/EM/investors but for you and your family and the world as well.

 

[PeterJA]

This also fits into my observation from earlier this year that Musk had (last year) started to take a new tack with regard to projected timelines, trying to under-promise and over-deliver. Yet, for some reason, many like to pretend that if something happens a certain way 5 times in a row, it will continue to happen that way forever.

Elon learns from experience. Geniuses tend to do that.

 

[Eclectic]

Yeah it doesn't feel like it's going back there...

It was a that level when I bought in June. There hasn't really been a change in the fundamentals since that time. Certainly there have been changes in some of the external market factors and the quarterly profit is obviously a positive fundamental development, but it's a short term development. What I mean when I said I'd buy again in the low $200s assuming no material negative change in fundamentals was things like a drop in the stock's price due to, for example, a massive cash crunch, regulatory development that is negative to the company, etc. When I bought at the $200ish range in June, I didn't see anything in the stock's fundamentals that justified the price drop from the month prior, when the stock price was in the $250+ range.

 

[M3Rider]

Elon said same price everywhere plus shipping and local taxes.

He never said same margins everywhere.

Same price does not make sense. Only if you manufacture in a single place (Fremont). Then you know you can't go below your cost. You have to add shipping, tariffs, etc. No way around it.

Once you start manufacturing locally in another country, you are paying lower wages and these workers can afford less. They cannot buy model 3 if you are paying them 1/2 of what you pay to U.S. workers and the car costs the same. Their buying power is proportional to the wages, so model 3 has to cost less to them, so they can afford it and stop poisoning the planet with ICE burning byproducts crap.

The only thing you have to balance out is that the car is not so cheap that you can export it back to U.S. and sell cheaper than U.S. made car.
I guess all companies do this, but I expect more from Tesla. I expect them to keep prices as low as possible in every region and prevent conditions when shipping cars between continents is profitable. So. Less waste in shipping, cars stay where they are made. Local population can afford them.