Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Going back to Tesla recognizing ~$30 million from autopilot/FSD with ~$500 million still deferred.
To those more knowledgeable with accounting: Is Tesla able to freely decide how much they want to recognize every quarter (within reasonable limits of not going beyond how much of FSD they have pushed out)? Or is Tesla recognizing an amount equal to how much they believe they have actually achieved towards releasing autopilot/FSD features?

Tesla must recognize the percent of the total value they have delivered. Determining that has huge grey areas so basically Tesla gets to decide how much they say they think it is. In other words, there is some subjectivity there. But they are supposed to be totally objective.

Got it?

 

[KSilver2000]

So, for everyone who explained that it is ARKK’s policy to hold only ~10% of their funds in TSLA by value, should we expect ARKK to unload about 17% of their TSLA shares soon now that the stock is up about 20% (if it holds)?

 

[X Fan]

Murdoch’s presence on the Board sure hasn’t helped with coverage from the WSJ.

Second Tesla article out in recent hours (this one by Grant) crapping on results, not sustainable, blah, blah, blah.

 

[MP3Mike]

So, for everyone who explained that it is ARKK’s policy to hold only ~10% of their funds in TSLA by value, should we expect ARKK to unload about 17% of their TSLA shares soon now that the stock is up about 20% (if it holds)?

They are allowed to let it run up to 12-13%, so they don't have to start selling until a ~30% increase. (Assuming the rest of their portfolio doesn't increase as well.)

They just released a little video on Twitter about this: ARK Invest on Twitter

 

[StealthP3D]

Just Wow. Nothin's going to change these guys until they go bankrupt. And even then they'll think it was a random lack of luck and if they could hold out longer, they'd make it.

So if I got his story straight:

Financial results are completely fraudulent. When asked specifically what is fraudulent the answer is "don't know, don't care". Those results are materially impossible. Short the F*** out of it, LOL!

 

[Remus]

So if I got his story straight:

Financial results are completely fraudulent. When asked specifically what is fraudulent the answer is "don't know, don't care". Those results are materially impossible. Short the F*** out of it, LOL!

I know, right?!

 

[Remus]

I want to give a shout out to our resident financial gurus, there are some extremely valuable information in the Near-future quarterly financial projections thread which shows the beat is real and sustainable.

kicking myself for unloading almost all my trading shares into the ran up to the ER. good thing i have many more hold shares.

about the ran up before the ER, some one knew?

 

[StealthP3D]

I know, right?!

And here we thought BBQ season was over for the year.

But no, we get BBQ'ed short ribs tomorrow!

 

[KSilver2000]

They are allowed to let it run up to 12-13%, so they don't have to start selling until a ~30% increase. (Assuming the rest of their portfolio doesn't increase as well.)

They just released a little video on Twitter about this: ARK Invest on Twitter

Just saw that video, thanks.
So, there may be some selling then if the SP holds. ARKK closed a hair above 11% in TSLA today. So, a 20% run up in SP moves them above 13% already.

 

[MP3Mike]

So, there may be some selling then if the SP holds. ARKK closed a hair above 11% in TSLA today. So, a 20% run up in SP moves them above 13% already.

But I don't think they have to take it down to 10%, they can pair it just a little bit or maybe wait a little while to see of the rest of the portfolio comes up.

 

[MP3Mike]

A good summary of the Q3 update by Galileo:

 

[Sancho]

I'm listening to the call, and the most interesting thing to me is that after one of the best quarters ever for the core auto business, a lot of the excitement on the call is directed towards Tesla Energy. While everyone else is trying to analyze the Tesla checkerboard, Elon Musk and his team are playing three dimensional chess.

The TSLA SP currently only reflects what Wall Street has the capability to analyze. How much longer will it take for Wall Street to start appropriately valuing Tesla Energy? It could be very soon as significant revenues are generated.

 

[sundaymorning]

The issue you fail to grasp is that the majors have huge amounts of capital, money and experience building lots and lots of cars. Tesla had to learn how to build EVs, now they are learning how to build mass market cars, something the majors have been doing for a long, long time.

But the real limitation Tesla is facing is they can only come out with one new model every year... if they are lucky. The majors can put into production half a dozen new cars each year if they want to. That's what GM is doing. Tesla will have maybe four or five models in 2022 while the majors will have that many each and more in the pipeline.

The real mass buyers will be swayed to buy EVs when nearly every automaker has them on the lot to test drive and kick tires. I used to think it would be the presence of chargers all over the place that would do the job. But I think it will be more important just to see EVs on the roads and in showrooms. People will figure out they can charge at home.

Why are you working overtime tonight? if you have conviction that Tesla will fail then relax, like the rest of us long’s here. Have a beer sit back and chill.

Nokia had major money.
Kodak has major money.
Sears had major money.
Circuit city had major money.
Kmart has major money.
JcPenny has major money.
Robinson’s May had major money.

 

[MP3Mike]

So if I got his story straight:

Financial results are completely fraudulent. When asked specifically what is fraudulent the answer is "don't know, don't care". Those results are materially impossible. Short the F*** out of it, LOL!

#CWCC= Can't Wait-Can't Cover=Bankwuptcy!

 

[StealthP3D]

about the ran up before the ER, some one knew?

I doubt there were any material leaks as Tesla runs a pretty tight ship (except when it comes to employee e-mails ). But I think it was obvious things were coming together on many fronts. I actually expected the cost savings to show up last quarter more strongly but I was anticipating them too soon. I would have been more vocal on my bullishness but the overall negativity here makes it easy to temper my speculation. Still, even the short-sellers had an inkling if you see the decline in short interest recently. I don't attribute any of this to material leaks.

 

[brian45011]

Is Tesla able to freely decide how much they want to recognize every quarter (within reasonable limits of not going beyond how much of FSD they have pushed out)? Or is Tesla recognizing an amount equal to how much they believe they have actually achieved towards releasing autopilot/FSD features?

Pretty much up to Tesla's discretion for quarterly filings. For annual report, it's more about convincing PWC that they can justify the amount of cumulative deferred revenue they want to recognize. Also, NHTSA has expressed some concerns about Smart Summon.

 

[KSilver2000]

What’s with the disagree on a genuine question?

 

[Mike Smith]

So, for everyone who explained that it is ARKK’s policy to hold only ~10% of their funds in TSLA by value, should we expect ARKK to unload about 17% of their TSLA shares soon now that the stock is up about 20% (if it holds)?

There will be some of that effect, but ARK is rapidly gaining renown, and 10% of all new contributions go straight into TSLA.

 

[Skryll]

So, for everyone who explained that it is ARKK’s policy to hold only ~10% of their funds in TSLA by value, should we expect ARKK to unload about 17% of their TSLA shares soon now that the stock is up about 20% (if it holds)?

Either that or they get upgraded to being a 25% strategic holding

 

[MP3Mike]

There will be some of that effect, but ARK is rapidly gaining renown, and 10% of all new contributions go straight into TSLA.

I don't think that is the case, because they can't buy more TSLA once it goes past 10%. (But the new contributions go into their other holdings which would start to lower the percent of their portfolio that is TSLA.)