Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Just a note: it’s irrational to look at the shares in groups by purchase price like that.

Oh absolutely, you are 100% right, but I've given up trying to pretend im a rational human being a long time ago. I hate selling tesla at a loss, if feels like I might be giving mark spiegel even a tiny iota of satisfaction if I do...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

At some point there comes a last chance to enter the “300 club”.

Good odds it’s today.

I've been told this how many hundreds of times the past 2 years? This is a meme at this point.

 

[Curt Renz]

Analysts need to (re)learn the fact that just as you do not judge Apple (Watch) by the standards that applied to Bulova and Timex, you cannot judge Tesla by the standards that applied to GM, Ford, FCA, etc.

Absolutely. Most auto analysts have been trained to only understand the long established ICE automakers. They need to justify to their bosses their predictions based on standard metrics for that industry. Most of them are lost when trying to analyze a vertically integrated disruptive innovator in the development of alternative energy, which happens to include batteries, charging stations, electric cars, autonomous taxis and direct retail.

 

[electracity]

245 billion as of Q1 2019. That's an awful lot.
Apple now has $245 billion cash on hand, up 3% from previous quarter

Sorry."They" was auto companies paying dividends, not apple. Although I haven't looked at auto company balance sheets in a long time. Apple obviously has a lot of cash.

 

[MFranc123]

So, did you take a short position, even after the warnings by this Forum?

Yep, took a good whacking. But I wasn't unhedged so it stung a tiny bit less than it could have.

Kudos to you for being a good sport about it, and for seeking out a diversity of opinions, even though you ultimately went with your original choice. I hope that this doesn't discourage you from taking part in the investment world!

No way I stop learning finance just because I lost money . Can't wait for the 10Q to learn more.

 

[bobinfla]

you have 1.8m in TSLA??

Yesterday I did, now I have....................more.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

so hard not to take profit here after such a big gap up, I have to resist. maybe some at 315 to treat myself

As someone who had been burned before in both directions (missing the rest of the 2013 run up, and adding more after funding secured), never be afraid to take profit ... Just be systematic about it and not in large chunks (my strategy is to add/remove 5% for every 10% SP change from the last trade).

Especially since a macro event like a recession is still a possibility.

 

[Nocturnal]

So this $300 SP is an arbitrary line due to people sticking with $300 as a good place to buy/sell and for options right? It's amusing how even people that believe they are rational investors pick nice round numbers.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

In profit on 5 batches of shares here, but down still on my horrible $385 ones still. I've decided to hold on over the next few days and see if the (relatively) positive news coverage pushes us higher. I've waited this long to turn green on these trades, and am wary of irrationally closing these positions the minute they are in profit. I can understand a lot of people taking profits today but we are so close to seeing M3s roll out of GF3 and a ramp up of smart summon improvements that I think I'd be nuts to close out now.

Why would you close your positions once you're back in the green? All those agonizing months of paper losses will have been for nothing.

 

[woodisgood]

So for the ignorant among us (me), can someone take a few minutes out of their morning to explain what is expected to happen (starting?) tomorrow with respect to shorts? I've seen references to Friday being the day where much covering needs to happen, but I don't really understand why or how significant of an effect that would have.

 

[The Accountant]

The ugly world that is $TSLAQ

Impenitent Atheist on Twitter

 

[KSilver2000]

Imagine if Ford / GM / FCA owned not just the factories that make their cars, but also the oil wells, refineries, dealerships, gas stations, fuel distribution network, and insurance companies associated with their vehicles. That's a clue to Tesla's potential.

(And that doesn't even factor in the self-driving constellation of potential).

No doubt, Tesla has much potential. But, Tesla doesn't yet own the battery equivalent of oil wells, refineries, and fuel distribution network either.

 

[Causalien]

After consideration, I've decided that instead of selling some stock to diversify (I'm currently something like 99.9% $TSLA) I will instead buy other stock with any new money I have for investing (which will be a while yet). I just can't bear to part with any shares.

But if there's another nice dip down -- and I have money -- I'll buy more $TSLA anyway. My only regret with it having traded under <$200 is that I didn't have more money I could use to buy shares with. Something something something having money to buy food and pay utilities.

I believe a sane retirement selling strategy is to sell 10% on the first 20% jump up once a year. Having assets generating consiatent cash flow helps you sit through down days that much easier.

 

[JRP3]

With the run up before earnings a friend told me he was thinking about selling his entire TSLA position. I said that while the stock can sell off after earnings you really never know what will happen with Tesla and I suggested that if he really needed to sell then only dump half his position. I told him about the time when I took some "profits" with some trading shares at $50 a share. He listened.

 

[Sancho]

I've been told this how many hundreds of times the past 2 years? This is a meme at this point.

Very true. Market can’t be predicted in the short term.

Nor is anything guaranteed longer term, but given everything Tesla is teeing up for next year, my 12-month target price is at least $600. So any purchases at $2xx look very juicy to me now.

 

[LN1_Casey]

think I’ll just go for a drive while we wait. View attachment 469276

What game is this?

You just made my 4.5K feel like small potatoes.

Tell me about it, I made 2.3k-ish for the bump. Still quite happy with that, though!

 

[woodisgood]

Wow, sounds like a thoughtful person that just got convinced by the wrong crowd. And the foundation for his conviction in TSLAQ is that he really and truly doesn't get Elon. At all.

 

[Zero CO2]

Absolutely. Most auto analysts have been trained to only understand the long established ICE automakers. They need to justify to their bosses their predictions based on standard metrics for that industry. Most of them are lost when trying to analyze a vertically integrated disruptive innovator in the development of alternative energy, which happens to include batteries, charging stations, electric cars, autonomous taxis and direct retail.

Exactly a real "Tesla Killer " has to do all of the above starting today 11 years behind the curve ... gotta love that first mover advantage
there are disparate companies working each of these issue without the overarching mission of Tesla

 

[dc_h]

At some point there comes a last chance to enter the “300 club”.

Good odds it’s today.

Edit: and reasonable odds it’s this hour

I'll take things not to say for 500.
Tesla
what is "my stock can't go down from here"
War
what is "mission accomplished"
Promises
what is "the check is in the mail"
Kandinsky
what is "anyone could do that"

 

[Jovian]

Congratulations to everyone who held on and especially those that bought during the darkest days! This is a small victory for us, but Tesla still has work to do.

After looking at the Q3 update I realized they improved margins on service to from -22.8% to -21.7%, but still lost ~$119 million in that area, I'm trying to figure out why Tesla is losing so much in service, and what is stopping them from reversing that.

I thought in most dealerships service is a major profit driver. What is Tesla doing differently that is costing it so much money?

Is it simply the pricing of the parts? Tesla has the parts priced so low that they are losing money when you add everything else in?

Can they price the parts higher without some backlash if that is the issue? I assume there's some reason Tesla has elected not to increase parts pricing.

Cheers!
-Mike