Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

20,000 per week x 50 weeks x $30,000 ASP = .... $30+ billion revenue per year

 

[Sparky4life]

Shorts are referring to the 10K filing & that it will show that things aren’t as rosy as the earnings call suggested - that ‘creative accounting’ has been utilised for ‘one offs’
Shouldn’t they be waiting until Q4 results for a clearer picture? Or am I being too logical?

They also claim that previous 10-Qs have shown obvious fraud. Apparently only their keen eyes can see it, like when Gandalf threw the ring of power into the fire to expose the elven writing...

 

[Causalien]

Well he answered my question about when to expect additional tile types. I suppose I'll never get it since my wife only likes the slate. Every time they update to a new version it gets delayed more. I'll keep paying for wind source credits.

Agree with your choice.
I was taken aback by the beautiful stone slate roofs of Norway and the slate tiles of tesla looks very similar to that.

 

[ZachF]

He was simply putting the focus on what really matters: the vehicles (3/Y/truck/semi) that will sell in the hundreds of thousands/millions of units annually (rather than the relatively small S?X sales). Tesla wont stop selling and upgrading luxury vehicles, and that couldn’t be more evident with Plaid and Roadster 2.0 coming.

S/X/Roadster will basically be Tesla's advertising.

 

[sundaymorning]

• Many expressed incredulity at Tesla becoming profitable while QoQ revenue dropped slightly. They are missing the obvious:
  1. Profit = revenue - expenses, and you can increase profits not just via higher revenue, but via lower costs as well - which is what happened in Q3.

I’m quite impressed by Tesla’s higher efficiencies and cost reduction this quarter. Just look at what happens to amazon yesterday when their shipping cost was higher than expected, despite beating on revenues, Amazon stock dropped sharply. This was the opposite of what happened to Tesla, lower revenues but higher efficiencies.

Amazon clobbered after a miss on the bottom line and soft guidance


Amazon's earnings shocker erases $40 billion of market value | Markets Insider

 

[avoigt]

I’m surprised the stock price isn’t reacting after hours - does no one understand the revenue math behind what musk is revealing in this call?

he said well over 1000 Solar roof installs per week within a few months, and a medium term goal of 10k-20k roofs a week (500k-1 million annually).

The roof has similar ASP to a model 3, and we are talking about 10K-15k units a week in Q1 potentially., and ramping up significantly higher in 2020.

Phil Lebeau (from cnbc) on the call, asking about number of installers. Elon does not like him apparently.

People don't understand the solar roof business, they don't understand the battery business, they don't get the autonomous driving or FSD business and they are just starting to understand the automotive BEV business and all four together integrated is totally overwhelming the capacity of their brains.

 

[wipster]

If the market is 5 million roofs in N America then Tesla can easily sell several thousand a week despite the higher price.
Once again it’s a question of the ramp up, it might take a couple of years but I can see why this could end up being a major source of income.

California is where the bulk of their business will occur initially because of the recent laws requiring solar plus the potential inclusion in the houses that will unfortunately have to be rebuilt post fires. Man I feel sorry for those folks...

 

[wipster]

Meh, not available in Canada yet.

You guys actually have sunshine up there?

 

[trailhound]

Tile production doubling every month!!!!

 

[Singuy]

Summer of 2020, where a single Tesla roof leak makes national news.

 

[trentbridge]

I’m surprised the stock price isn’t reacting after hours - does no one understand the revenue math behind what musk is revealing in this call?

he said well over 1000 Solar roof installs per week within a few months, and a medium term goal of 10k-20k roofs a week (500k-1 million annually).

The roof has similar ASP to a model 3, and we are talking about 10K-15k units a week in Q1 potentially., and ramping up significantly higher in 2020.

Phil Lebeau (from cnbc) on the call, asking about number of installers. Elon does not like him apparently.

---

I just don't see instant demand / supply for a thousand new roof installs per week. Making a thousand Model 3s is way easier - all the components go to one location - all the workers go to one location - and the workplace is indoors. And the delivery process begins when the cars exit the factory. Client pays on delivery.

Solar roof installs are the exact opposite..client probably pays in advance, client need permits for each location from local authorities, Tesla needs to coordinate component deliveries to each and every location, and Tesla needs trained workers at each location - and it's all subject to weather conditions.
ramping up at Fremont has to be much easier than ramping the solar roof business.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I hope not. I want them to wait and leapfrog that to a new Maxwell or much higher energy dense battery type for an all-around even better, 600-mile range Halo car that beats all but the roadster.

Edit- If that takes a couple extra years, I'm fine with that.

I'd also rather see them make a version like a small pickup or VW-van sort of thing on the same -or Model 3 or Y skate.

The new tri-motor PLAID Models S/X and Roadster are the logical places to debut the DBE technology. GF1 will already be running flat out to produce ~10K packs per week to supply Model 3/Y demand. They'll need new bty supplies to build those halo cars; why not use the best tech available if you have to build out more capacity anyway?

On that topic, Semi will likely NOT need more capacity in 2020 for the 'limited production run' that Elon mentioned on the Q3 conference call. I've previously estimated that Tesla requires ~500 tractors total for its West Coast logistics operations (including freight to/from GF1). That's only 300 MWh if Tesla starts with the 600 KWh (SR) packs. That's just ~3 days of cell output from GF1/Panasonic. They'll need more cell to put Semi into full production, but that's not planned for 2020 so there's time to build out more capacity to get some DBE whiz-bang 600 mi rge Semi's.

Cheers!

 

[MD70]

Tile production doubling every month!!!!

Lol let’s hope it’s realistic.

 

[Big Dog]

My roof is ~20 years old, so I'm surprising myself by being interested. That being said, doesn't the (US) federal tax credits for solar expire Dec 31, or am I confusing that with the auto tax credits?

 

[Mkorpal]

People don't understand the solar roof business, they don't understand the battery business, they don't get the autonomous driving or FSD business and they are just starting to understand the automotive BEV business and all four together integrated is totally overwhelming the capacity of their brains.

Granted, I've put very little value into the Solar Roof business up to this point.

 

[Thekiwi]

20,000 per week x 50 weeks x $30,000 ASP = .... $30+ billion revenue per year

Minimum price on website is $34k Including incentives, so likely the average install is going to be $40k+ (probably much more once powerwall added)

 

[ChrisA]

My favorite comment:

"Thanks everyone... We look forward to installing millions of roofs."

 

[gene]

My roof is ~20 years old, so I'm surprising myself by being interested. That being said, doesn't the (US) federal tax credits for solar expire Dec 31, or am I confusing that with the auto tax credits?

The credit drops from 30% to 26%.

 

[Thekiwi]

FYI - I had CNBC on for the after hours fast money hour and although i might have missed it, I dont believe they mentioned Tesla even once in passing.

 

[KarenRei]

You guys actually have sunshine up there?

Compared to us they do