Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paracelsus]

Hol’ up, I’m gonna go watch this and be right back:

edit. I’m about two minutes in. Shut the frunk puppy, this. Is. The. Super-bowl. Ad. Right here.

Thanks for posting that @SW2Fiddler - That was great on many levels.........and it could be a Tesla ad, an add for Medicare for All, and just a very nice message on how important it is to simply be a good human being and pay it forward. Much appreciated!

 

[Big Dog]

Tesla seems very confident of reaching 360k deliveries. This implies some margin for error so my base case for Q4 would be about 110k right now.....

easy peasy. Just hire that fraudulent accounting firm in China to certify 150k deliveries from GF3.

 

[HG Wells]

Well, my daughter bought me a model 3.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla going to 0 sell me ur calls
View attachment 415114

Please MMD tomorrow and panic sell. About to dump my bank account into common stock. Just had an epiphany. This is a fake price

If you buy shares today, you are a better investor than Larry Ellison, Saudi’s, and Cathie Wood (she went balls2walls at $235?). Think people. Retail can’t even buy this dip because most of us went all in at $250-$270. Tutes are literally stealing shares from shorts, weak swing traders and margined folk

Going to have a $50+ day soon. Stock is so stupid cheap and doesn’t reflect reality. I see new Model 3s everywhere

You have been hypnotized by the eternal downtrend. This price is fake. Fake fake fake. 100% fake. You can buy it and sell it, but it shouldn't be happening. It's theft. Institutions will bid this up all the way to $250 minimum, and quickly.

Strokes of genius

 

[KarenRei]

Stopped by the open house at the Bloomington Il service center. Great group of people had fun.

Then we drove by the Rivian factory in Bloomington...I know it was a Saturday...but it was a ghost town.View attachment 470323 View attachment 470324 View attachment 470325

There's something IMHO weird about Rivian.

Why don't they ever seem to be doing anything?

They're a company with billions of dollars in cash, and yet look at that place - it's like a ghost town. They've had the factory for two whole years - much of one year while they've been stuffed to the gills with cash - but they're not expected to complete demo work until the end of this year?

But then suddenly they're supposed to tool for mass production in half a year?

Look at what GF3 has looked like all past year, a constant hive of activity, inside and out. Even when you couldn't see the inside, there was a constant stream of cars and delivery vehicles coming and going, people swarming everywhere. Rivian? You expect to see tumbleweeds blowing by.

Check them out on satellite. I know the imagery isn't realtime (all we know is that it's from 2019), but still:

Google Maps

Barren. Still with a joke left by the previous occupants sitting outside:

Seriously, you've had this place for two years and you haven't even taken the time to remove that?

I don't get it. What on Earth have these people been doing? Are they actually serious about production?

 

[brian45011]

So yes, as expected. So it makes sense if you have to take the risk (of insurance) anyway, to sell this insurance to the customers, right? No need for lawyers then. Reduce your risk as your FSD software gets better and better.

The exposure is not from first party claims but from third party litigation. Tesla "self insures" its product liability exposure.

 

[Steve m]

The Q1 plan obviously seems to be have China cover any flatness in Fremont sales. But Tesla is probably really going after Q4 sales in the U.S., so Europe may be somewhat starved from product for the rest of the year. That would leave some pent up demand for a Q1 next year.

But tesla may be flat or down a bit in Q1. It doesn't matter.

Tesla has a lot to do in Fremont getting ready for the model Y. Some slowness in Fremont Q1 isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Doesn't look like Tesla (europe) is being starved. Alread 3 ships have loaded and left for Zeebrugge which is two weeks ahead of last quarter.

 

[SpeedGoat]

It feels like the end of an era. The battle is over, the shorts lost like they were always going to.

Now Tesla is untouchable by FUD, China is coming online, Tesla energy ramping, cash in the bank... no more discounted chances to pick up shares. No more quirky Elon tweets, no more surprises.

In victory I feel empty.

It isn't completely over yet, but I think it could be close. There will always be shorts for any high profile stock, but the days ofTSLAQ as a newsworthy entity in its own right are numbered.

What is nice is that it didn't happen through a long steady rise in the stock giving the shorts a chance to back out on their own terms, but a sudden surge.

 

[EVNow]

Doesn't look like Tesla is being starved. Alread 3 ships have loaded and left for Zeebrugge which is two weeks ahead of last quarter.

Interesting shipping this month.

EU - 3 ships - 3+4+3 = 10 loading days
CN - 2 ships - 4+3 = 7 loading days
KR - 1 Ship - 1 loading day

So, they have already shipped ~ 18*1.25 = 23k cars.

ps : Forgot to add - all these quarters, China ships have spent just a day or so loading. Good to see them fully load before leaving. Hopefully this is the last quarter Tesla needs to ship so many cars to China.

 

[mrmage]

It feels like the end of an era. The battle is over, the shorts lost like they were always going to.

Now Tesla is untouchable by FUD, China is coming online, Tesla energy ramping, cash in the bank... no more discounted chances to pick up shares. No more quirky Elon tweets, no more surprises.

In victory I feel empty.

The SP jumped because the company turned a profit from improved margins that no one expected. However, with a run rate of $1B profit and 50-100% growth, Tesla could easily command a much higher PE ratio.

That doesn't even take into account the new product lines, solar, power, batteries, listing on SP500, FSD, etc. The $330 SP today is still the chance to pick up shares at a steep discount for anyone who hasn't invested enough.

 

[EVNow]

Want something that's not contingent on Democrats winning in 2020 that has a major impact on a certain new product launch?

California Gives Final OK To Require Solar Panels On New Houses

Starting in 2020, all new homes in California will be required to have solar (and discounts will be given on home batteries, e.g. powerwalls), barring certain exceptions (for example, homes in shady locations). Think about what impacts this will have on solar roof orders

Tesla Energy is going to see monstrous growth next year.

This was discussed a while back.

It will depend on how good Tesla is in selling to big builders. Builders decide what goes in new homes - very few people build their own homes. If the builders decide why not let Tesla pay for this and they get the compliance for free - then we'll see big sale for Tesla but little revenue.

 

[Causalien]

It feels like the end of an era. The battle is over, the shorts lost like they were always going to.

Now Tesla is untouchable by FUD, China is coming online, Tesla energy ramping, cash in the bank... no more discounted chances to pick up shares. No more quirky Elon tweets, no more surprises.

In victory I feel empty.

I am no saint. So during victory it is best to pass time by plotting revenge on all those who wronged you because it gets boring when there's nothing to improve on anymore.

However, I do not believe tesla is at that point yet. Maybe after giga4 and successful ramp of modelY. There were too many events in the past years that does not pass the smell test.

But mostly, it is to maintain Elon's good geek guy reputation.

 

[SageBrush]

One has to admit -- the continued shorting of Tesla stock in the last couple of days is impressive. That takes a level of conviction I would not have believed exists.

It also makes me hopeful for a short squeeze

 

[Singer3000]

It isn't completely over yet, but I think it could be close. There will always be shorts for any high profile stock, but the days ofTSLAQ as a newsworthy entity in its own right are numbered.

What is nice is that it didn't happen through a long steady rise in the stock giving the shorts a chance to back out on their own terms, but a sudden surge.

I put on my snorkel earlier and dived into the TSLAQ swamp. They’ve already stopped talking about Q3, though I guess they’ll find some minor number to blow up in the 10Q.

No what they’re doing now is poring line by line over the couple of thousand pages of deposition statements of Elon and other Tesla execs regarding the Solarcity class action.

“Solar Roof was a fraud product!” is the latest rallying cry. Hmm....

To those hoping TSLAQ will go away soon, you misunderstand the game. Few of the high profile shorts believe in Tesla’s demise. It’s all about sucking in retail shorts to buy puts from you at bankruptcy type strike prices and then using the same FUD to try and make your more moderate short positions profitable.

I have to assume that many of the agents in media are being used in proxy without understanding how they’re being used. Such agents turn a blind eye because they know that Tesla = Clicks and they know that a sensationalist disaster story gets more clicks than “Company X today reported solid progress in improving cost efficiency and meeting its growth targets”.

This game has a lot further to run. Which means that on a long term fundamental basis, Tesla is highly likely to stay undervalued for a while yet.

 

[EVNow]

I am wondering, if the cash flow in the coming 12 months can support the expansion going on:

I think they will keep producing ~1B cash per quarter. So, they can easily spend ~500M in capex and have money left for things like loan payments.

I hope in the meantime, they can get
- Improved credit rating so that they can get term loans / bond money (non convertibles)
- Local EU loans for GF4 on easy terms (like GF3)

Ofcourse in the black swan event of robotaxi, they will raise capital. But none of us would care as SP would be 10x of what it is today.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Note that there's one metric of Tesla that was lagging this year: in 2016 TSLA peaked around $270 - which was higher than the pre-Q3 price levels of $250-$260 ...

Even more amazing, the pps hit a then all time high of 280 exactly five years ago (Oct 2013).

 

[MC3OZ]

I think they will keep producing ~1B cash per quarter. So, they can easily spend ~500M in capex and have money left for things like loan payments.

I hope in the meantime, they can get
- Improved credit rating so that they can get term loans / bond money (non convertibles)
- Local EU loans for GF4 on easy terms (like GF3)

Ofcourse in the black swan event of robotaxi, they will raise capital. But none of us would care as SP would be 10x of what it is today.

I agree, with a working approved RoboTaxi. a capital raise is a good idea, if necessary, as only a very extreme Bear would even suggest demand would be an issue.

Without a capital raise they can add 1 new factory every 2 years, on a slightly slower more organic growth curve.

Because opening new factories takes a lot more than just money, you need a trained workforce, raw materials, and demand for every car you can produce.. Demand should never be a problem... But sometimes there is a limit to how fast they can open service centres, superchargers etc, slower growth is much easier to manage.

I think they are confident of a working RoboTaxi solution soon., while they think that they will be in no rush to raise capital..is my guess.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

He is averaging just under a coin toss on his ratings.

And that's enough to put him in the top 8% of all analysts tracked. The other 92% are worse than a coin flip. That some serious analytical strategery on display there.

 

[Hock1]

Want something that's not contingent on Democrats winning in 2020 that has a major impact on a certain new product launch?

California Gives Final OK To Require Solar Panels On New Houses

Starting in 2020, all new homes in California will be required to have solar (and discounts will be given on home batteries, e.g. powerwalls), barring certain exceptions (for example, homes in shady locations). Think about what impacts this will have on solar roof orders

Tesla Energy is going to see monstrous growth next year.

So, isn't this a reason why we should expect solar roof tile deals with California homebuilders. Seems like a no-brainer in new construction.

 

[GOVA]

Thanks for posting that @SW2Fiddler - That was great on many levels.........and it could be a Tesla ad, an add for Medicare for All, and just a very nice message on how important it is to simply be a good human being and pay it forward. Much appreciated!

I liked it as well. He probably should have skipped the 'sleeping while driving' part as this kind of crap is always a potential food for shorties.