Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Steve m]

Vincent on Twitter

"First batch of the Made in China Tesla Model 3 from Shanghai Gigafactory GF3"
"Oct 27th 2019"

View attachment 470603​

That's 10 cars by October 27, 2019.

2990 to go before 1-1-2020

 

[GOVA]

Totally agree on that. As said..it seems despite our great depth of knowledge and discussion it’s a coin flip for what the stock would do after an earnings report. Even on good reports it could dip. Just been super hard to predict.


I mean look at ARK. That is literally their job....and they left a lot of money on the table selling those shares pre-ER.

This got me thinking... what if ARK did the 'public' dump of TSLA right before the call to fud up with shorties minds???

 

[Fact Checking]

This got me thinking... what if ARK did the 'public' dump of TSLA right before the call to fud up with shorties minds???

That would have been a very expensive exercise in hindsight, and it would be pretty pointless as well: shorts were already ~35 million shares short at that point, ± 1 million shares would not have made a big difference.

Big picture institutional investors like ARK don't care much about the shorts I think, they mostly care about the fundamentals.

But if they "dumped" before Q3 results to buy call options, then they are geniuses. I'm pretty sure it was genuine rebalancing though, I believe they simply thought that post-Q3 TSLA would under-perform their other high-conviction stocks they were buying from that money. Cathie and Tasha might be kicking themselves now ...

 

[Unpilot]

So I charged at the South Indy SC. Then walked over to Walmart. They have 16 electrify American EV charging stations. About half looked to be of the 350kw variety.

 

[dhrivnak]

The momentum right now is severe. I would be very surprised if this latest push falls short of 350. There are still shorts being margined and the momentum and day traders are playing it only one way right now. Can you see TSLA turning on a dime right on Monday, going down, and then staying down?

No I do not foresee a significant drop. And I hope I am surprised.

 

[mongo]

So I charged at the South Indy SC. Then walked over to Walmart. They have 16 electrify American EV charging stations. About half looked to be of the 350kw variety.View attachment 470627 View attachment 470628

Ummm, I feel like I'm missing something obvious, but why do they have dual connecter charge stations for each parking spot? The labeling on the first station indicates both cables are CCS.

Redundant ambidextrous?

 

[Beltsbear]

Elon has been hands on in creating over four cars including some of best looking and successful BEV models. He also made a *sugar* ton of money. You can't erase his successful present.

And if someone is gonna through shade, I'm gonna give a little back.

You quoted half of my post. With my full post your response would look kinda silly.

 

[Unpilot]

Ummm, I feel like I'm missing something obvious, but why do they have dual connecter charge stations for each parking spot? The labeling on the first station indicates both cables are CCS.

Redundant ambidextrous?

I was in a hurry and did not look close...but I think all but 1 was CCS

 

[reddy]

So I charged at the South Indy SC. Then walked over to Walmart. They have 16 electrify American EV charging stations. About half looked to be of the 350kw variety.

Are you sure there are really 16? Each charger has 2 cords, but only 1 cord can be used at a time.

This looks like an 8 unit installation to me.

Typically 1 of the EV America units has 1 CCS and 1 ChaDemo , and all the others have 2 redundant CCS cables.

 

[mongo]

You quoted half of my post. With my full post your response would look kinda silly.

I was not criticizing your post, just poking fun at Bob (as I did in the original). So hopefully both of my posts looked kind of silly.

Here's the other part:

The problem with lutz is he is the past. He does not get electric cars. Without a from the ground up dedicated platform like the 3 , an electric car will be sub optimal. And sub optimal does not work with electric cars. People taking advice from him now will fail.

 

[Unpilot]

Are you sure there are really 16? Each charger has 2 cords, but only 1 cord can be used at a time.

This looks like an 8 unit installation to me.

Typically 1 of the EV America units has 1 CCS and 1 ChaDemo , and all the others have 2 redundant CCS cables.

Dunno..... what you see is what I saw.
Seems strange to have 2 cords if only one is usable at a time?

 

[dc_h]

Part #3 transcript, and this is very interesting, about GF3 cell production plans, Maxwell, Panasonic and LG Chem:

(sorry about the messy transcript - tried to clean it up a bit but this is closer to the raw YouTube transcript with no real punctuation):

"They're building a second building ... there and as Elon confirmed during the call it's gonna be used for creating battery packs now what most people don't know is that those battery packs are going to be using LG Chem cells now these cells are of the same 2170 size variety as is currently made by Panasonic in Gigafactory one now the mystery of these cells is going to attempt to mimic important word here mimic the chemistry of the Panasonic batteries now why do we say mimic because the thing is so the cell chemical formula for the battery was developed by Panasonic and Tesla in tandem so Tesla has the chemical formula and they gave it to LG for them to create those batteries but LG they have different production process and different manufacturing equipment and due to that even though they receive the chemical formula from Tesla the batteries will still be a little bit different they'll have slightly less capacity but the difference will not be huge so basically when it comes to creating standard range as Elon said it can just cram in a couple extra batteries to make up the difference no problem but when it comes to the long range they obviously can't do that because the long-range battery pack is already packed to the brim with cells so Eli Tesla has said that they're not going to be producing long range at Gigafactory but actually turns out according to our source that they are but not right now the difference will be that it'll still be a long range Tesla but the long range will be slightly less range than the one produced by Fremont and Gigafactory one in Nevada in the US now it's still long range I mean the difference can be like I don't know 10 or 20 kilometers we're just still hell of a lot than the standard range hell of a lot more than even the middle range Lemur but obviously less than us-made long range and that's not a huge deal really the biggest issue I'd are not doing immediately is because they are cell constrained and that comes as no surprise I mean it even comes the Gigafactory 3 was built so quickly less than a year even Tesla wasn't expecting that so obviously LG Chem is not ready to accommodate a large production of Tesla cells and once they do get their production ramped up then the attesa mites actually start making the long range in Gigafactory 3 as well so let's get back to one thing I said earlier why is Gigafactory 3 not going to build more than 3 thousand model 3s and 2019 well our source as said this is his belief of course but here's what it's based on turns out the Gigafactory 3 has a very important priority and that priority is quality from the moment they start manufacturing every model 3 needs to be at a quality level equal to Fremont or exceeding it so Fremont is the low bar here which is quite surprising and it definitely it's a very commendable gold desolate is definitely has its priorities straight I mean no panel gaps no water leaking in nothing like that and from the moment Gigafactory 3 starts production everything needs to be at a high quality level and it really is the right thing to do Tesla battery investor day it's come we're summing February March I know that you-tuber Galilei Russell believes that test will be unveiling that they're gonna produce their own batteries but he and I disagree on how soon that will happen and in what way here's what I believe is going to happen based on some of the inside information we've had and that is that you know Maxwell they create the dry electrode and the electrode is only part of the battery and so what is most likely going to happen is that Maxwell we'd be taking over a part of the battery production but not the entire thing and so what does that make Tesla it makes Tesla a supplier a supplier to Panasonic maybe a supplier to LG for its batteries for Gigafactory 3 who knows but it's not there's still a lot of - battery production that Tesla cannot simply do on its own the battery industry is full of patents industrial secrets and due to that Tesla can't just reinvent the wheel reinvent the battery in this case out of nothing and they are buying some companies to come to you know to put the piece of the puzzle together but they're not there yet and there's still a huge chunk missing so here's the interesting option to speculate on Panasonic right now financially is not doing all that well and it's market cap is only like 20 billion compared to Tesla's more than 50 billion and if Tesla continues is earning money the way it is right now in a couple of years it's possible Tesla could try to simply buy the cylindrical cell division from Panasonic that would make a lot of sense financially for everyone actually and I'm not saying this is going to happen but it's definitely an interesting option to keep in mind it's within the realms of possibility."​

The takeaways:

• Tesla co-owns the 2,170 chemistry and LG will make it for them - but not perfectly initially, with slightly lower range. This confirms the reports from Korea from a few weeks ago that the LG Chem pack will be different from the Panasonic pack.
• The fact that the initial GF3 production in Q1 and possibly Q2 too will be using U.S. made battery packs explains why pricing for the SR+ is still around $50k.
• GF3 was built faster than even Tesla believed it to be possible, so LG Chem's cell production is a bit out of phase, and they are using GF1 packs for that reason. LOL.
• Maxwell: according to his source Maxwell might start supplying dry electrodes to both Panasonic and to LG. I.e. Tesla will be both supplier to Panasonic and customer as well. Makes sense from what we know about Maxwell's process. Unclear whether Panasonic would play ball.
• Tesla potentially buying Panasonic's cylindrical business is something we speculated about here too. I believe @ReflexFunds was speculating along those lines in the past.
• Very high initial production quality goals for GF3: it must meet or exceed current Fremont quality. (!) I.e. no panel gaps or other ramp-up imperfections accepted.

Awesome news regarding the quality requirement. This means brand image is a higher priority then cash flow. That was not true last summer. Makes me think that Tesl’s corporate agile methodology is impressive and another hidden advantage. Adjusting priorities of the organization and fixing the most important issues to optimize the corporate system holistically is as big as Toyota’s just in time manufacturing

 

[reddy]

Dunno..... what you see is what I saw.
Seems strange to have 2 cords if only one is usable at a time?

Yes, we all feel that it is a waste to have 2 cords, but that is exactly what it is.

 

[Pras]

Yes, we all feel that it is a waste to have 2 cords, but that is exactly what it is.

View attachment 470639

That is a good catch! Any obvious reason that there are two per parking place?

 

[colettimj]

Yes, we all feel that it is a waste to have 2 cords, but that is exactly what it is.

View attachment 470639

Plugshare shows 15 CCS and one CHAdeMO there.

The Electrify America FAQ states "Though there are two connectors at each Electrify America charger, only one can be used at a time. Having two connectors ensures that it’s easy for you to plug in—no matter where your car’s charging port is located."

I guess a longer single cord isn't an option (?)

 

[reddy]

Plugshare shows 15 CCS and one CHAdeMO there.

The Electrify America FAQ states "Though there are two connectors at each Electrify America charger, only one can be used at a time. Having two connectors ensures that it’s easy for you to plug in—no matter where your car’s charging port is located."

I guess a longer single cord isn't an option (?)

It sounds like the person who made the submission to Plugshare made the same mistake as Unpilot.

These are simply redundant cables, there aren't 2 chargers in each pedestal.

 

[hacer]

Elon mentioned it during the Q3 ER call that the "Phase II." building will make "batteries and modules".

He is pretty precise with such statements, so I'm quite sure he meant cell production.
...

The word battery literally refers to a container of cells. So not making cells would in no way imply any imprecision by Elon.

 

[GaryW]

The word battery literally refers to a container of cells. So not making cells would in no way imply any imprecision by Elon.

I remember reading that Ben Franklin named it a battery because a row of glass ‘cells’ reminded him of a row (battery) of cannon. No?

 

[JRP3]

The word battery literally refers to a container of cells.

Not always, as in when you buy a AA, AAA, D, battery.

 

[Off Shore]

Not always, as in when you buy a AA, AAA, D, battery.

IOW Words are meaningless. This is a known fact.