Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

There's another thread for this, but no action there so possible I can get an answer here and relation to investing. Is this kid's idea potential competition for Tesla's roof?

https://www.popsci.com/technology/a...through-solar-array-based-fibonacci-sequence/

But the direction of the Sun changes in the sky. Aside from rotating the pole with a fixed angle to the vector, might there be an advantage to the tree to have its leaves arranged in the fibonacci sequence? Why does nature do it that way, because you can capture more energy in a given total area? Does it just save space? Nature must do things that way to do more than inspire Joyce Kilmer. I am open to alternative explanations, say, that sunflowers turn their faces to the Sun so bees can land with the sun at their backs. Or some such perversion like reproduction as revealed by all the Rorshach tests I've taken.

Sorry if I'm just being a blockhead due to old age or other impairment.

That's an article from 2011 which has long been debunked. Blog Debunks 13-Year-Old Scientist's Solar Power Breakthrough

he measured voltage, without a load attached ("open circuit"). They are barely related -- in solar cells, voltage is actually almost a constant, independent of power ... "How did this confused science project became international news?"

 

[StealthP3D]

I believe that TSLA will continue to go up from here in volatile fashion in the short term. The real question I have is where the next trading range is.

Thinking low 400s to mid to high 300s after 420 is taken out. Maybe before the end of the year. Or the end of next week if this craziness continues.

One thing that will help support the next trading range is this sharp move after the Q3 earnings release. A lot of people missed out and they don't want to make the same mistake again. I think going into Q4 earnings there will be a good amount of speculative bidding up.

 

[scaesare]

I have always thought that the Aztec was one of the better looking SUVs. I really don't get why anyone thinks it's ugly.

Walter White? Is that you?

 

[StealthP3D]

Wow. Just met Greta Thurnberg at the Grants Pass, OR supercharger.

You meet the nicest people on a Honda, I mean at the Supercharger!

(reference from a 1960's Honda motorcycle commercial)

 

[StealthP3D]

The car is not the difficult product. The factory is the difficult product.

The factory is perhaps the harder part. But the car is not easy, particularly the motor details, the BMS, the other software, the battery pack architecture, etc.

 

[StealthP3D]

Didn't Microsoft buy call options on their own stock and make a ton of money? I thought it was actually legal for the company to trade on their own stock. You never *know* if your product will be a success.

Asking out of ignorance, btw. Would love clarification/correction.

It's probably not illegal for a company to buy call options as long as they are not trading on non-public information. I was responding to the idea that once Tesla found out their FSD worked, they could make a killing by front-running the market. That's illegal.

 

[PeterJA]

Some choice Bob Lutz quotes:

“The Model 3 continues to sell well. But the Model Y, I think it’s terminally ugly. I don’t know who’s gonna buy that.”

“When it comes to battery technology, Tesla is in exactly the same place as everybody else. They use lithium-ion and lithium-ion has a certain energy content per kWh and everybody else has the same one. So the only reason why Tesla had more range was because they had a bigger battery.”

You can read more pearls of wisdom on Teslarati:
Tesla Model Y bashed by auto veteran: 'It's terminally ugly. I don't know who's gonna buy that'

Edit: well, I guess he IS right. The “energy content per kWh” is 1 kWh, and that IS the same for everyone.

Bob Lutz has performed a valuable service by demonstrating to everyone except TSLAQ nitwits that the "experts" trashing Tesla in Big Media are full of merde. I saw Lutz declare "Tesla loses money on every car" only a few months ago.

Trump and Bush helpfully destroyed the respect that many Americans used to feel for the President merely because he was President. Lutz is doing the same for the anti-Tesla blowhards on TV. You go, Bob.

I agree with folks here who say the FUDsters will not stop. They are too threatened and well-funded to give up. But nothing lasts forever. At some point, the impressionable majority of investors will lose confidence in the "experts" and start believing the Tesla owners, the sales numbers, the product announcements, and the videos of Elon's rockets doing things never done before. The FUD will stop working, no matter how well funded.

Did we reach that point last week? If so, it happened sooner than I expected. But I am learning to expect the unexpected from Tesla.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Some choice Bob Lutz quotes:

“The Model 3 continues to sell well. But the Model Y, I think it’s terminally ugly. I don’t know who’s gonna buy that.”

"Terminally ugly"? I'll take it.

Tesla Model Y Will Crush The Crossover Competition, Here’s Why

 

[Steve m]

Dunno..... what you see is what I saw.
Seems strange to have 2 cords if only one is usable at a time?

Probably better to have 2 chords with different connectors then to have one chord and an added converter.

 

[scaesare]

Probably better to have 2 chords with different connectors then to have one chord and an added converter.

Noted.

 

[FreqFlyer]

View attachment 470672

"Terminally ugly"? I'll take it.

Tesla Model Y Will Crush The Crossover Competition, Here’s Why

Nice choice of picture. Who look at that and state its ugly?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

"A little bird told me that @tesla has applied for China New Energy Vehicle Incentive for Giga Shanghai Model 3 (not purchase tax, which is already exempt)

/1

According to my calculation based on government document, the subsidy, if approved, should be 27,500 RMB for Giga 3 Model 3.

25,000 * 1.1 = 27,500

/2

As for the timing of the (highly) potential official announcement, my best guess is around mid November judging from the past, as qualified models are updated every month by the authorities (all before the 16 of the month, some as early as the 8th day of the month)."
​

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I can confirm that it does seem that more subsidies are on the way.

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

"If you think the past 2 days are miserable for the toxic $TSLAQ group, think again.

That was just the beginning of the end for TSLAQ

Living in their echo chamber, they still refuse to believe what’s coming for them.

The stampede will be written extensively in history books."
​

-----
Can also confirm this is only the beginning of burning shorts

 

[EVNow]

It's probably not illegal for a company to buy call options as long as they are not trading on non-public information. I was responding to the idea that once Tesla found out their FSD worked, they could make a killing by front-running the market. That's illegal.

In Tesla’s case Musk /Tesla can tweet saying they will soon release FSD. Nobody will believe them and then they can buy a million calls

 

[StealthP3D]

Nice choice of picture. Who look at that and state its ugly?

Two possible answers:

1) Someone with no taste in design.
2) Someone who wants to discourage Tesla sales.

That said, the Model 3 is obviously much sleeker and is still my favorite because I'm more drawn to efficiency and speed than being able to carry two kitchen sinks. My day to day driving simply doesn't need that much space. Families will *love* it!

 

[brian45011]

With an insurance check and bids in hand the solar roof really is the same price as shingles+solar.

Please share the details of the bids and your cost-benefit analysis. Is your damaged roof composition shingles? Is the damaged roof water tight?

Mod: I edited this post to fix the broken quote. Why can't people look at their own posts to see if they got it right, and fix them? --ggr.

 

[StealthP3D]

In Tesla’s case Musk /Tesla can tweet saying they will soon release FSD. Nobody will believe them and then they can buy a million calls

Funny! I'm not that up an all the rules surrounding a company trading their own stock/options but I imagine they have to be planned sales that are pre-announced. Otherwise, I just don't see how they could avoid trading on non-public info. Because they know a lot about their own business and they can't disclose *everything*.

 

[StealthP3D]

I can confirm that it does seem that more subsidies are on the way.

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

"If you think the past 2 days are miserable for the toxic $TSLAQ group, think again.

That was just the beginning of the end for TSLAQ

Living in their echo chamber, they still refuse to believe what’s coming for them.

The stampede will be written extensively in history books."
​

-----
Can also confirm this is only the beginning of burning shorts

The weekend has a way of allowing people to reflect on the past week, their financial situation, past decisions and a plan for the new week.

I suspect a lot of shorts have had a couple of sleepless nights and dreams of Model 3's and Model Y's taking over the roads, parking lots and driveways of the world (not happy dreams like TSLA longs have about these things). Many will decide it's no longer worth the losses, the worry, the sleeplessness, the marital fights, the margin calls, etc. and they will be covering.

The wildcard is when and how strong the big money market manipulators will step in to dampen the fun. My best guess is there is still too much of an imbalance of buyers and sellers for them to take charge in any meaningful way. They might smack it down first thing in the morning just to cause those thinking about going long or covering some FUD but it won't stay down long. Then the covering and buying will begin! Of course, any temporary smack-down just provides a better entry point for those with fast fingers in the morning.

Enjoy the action!

 

[SteveG3]

What do you think: Are we turning a page with regards to TSLA here? If we go back to the old thread: Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

The key point behind the relentless attacks on Tesla was to induce a crisis of confidence that will prevent people from buying the actual Tesla products and thus drive them out of business (also ref. the Fairfax example).

Can you help me pierce my bubble? If Tesla even on a "decline" in turnover manages to squeeze out a profit, if their expansion right now is clearly not soaking up all the cash available to Tesla - is this attack vector on TSLA futile? And will we see a significant portion of the short position go away now?

Every day more Tesla cars are flooding the markets. And sales cause sales (we all know this) - so all the FUD in the media is getting less and less effective if a) your neighbour tells you the car is awesome and b) the company shows pretty decent financials.

Now if the shorts were to fold: could we expect a short covering rally? (Not a squeeze, I don't believe in that). What's your take?

I think it's highly likely just about slowing Tesla down to what ever extent the FUD/short position can. As I've said for several years here, I would be surprised if we see this "bigger game" fall off substantially any earlier than ~2022.

Jack Ricard seemed to have found the statistic that helps people get why this suspected "bigger game" strategy (including losing billions by staying short) is not "futile" from the point of view of the "fossil fuel economy." Every day that the transition from the "ffe" is deferred means $2.5 billion retained by the "ffe" (fwiw, don't remember if that referred to revenue or profits).

 

[brian45011]

Yes, the seat factory is ~3 miles from the main Fremont building:

Tesla is looking at Boring Co. tunnels to transport materials for Model 3 production
​

​

Sounds risky
Which fault line do I live on? A guide to the major Bay Area faults

 

[Singer3000]

Part #3 transcript, and this is very interesting, about GF3 cell production plans, Maxwell, Panasonic and LG Chem:

(sorry about the messy transcript - tried to clean it up a bit but this is closer to the raw YouTube transcript with no real punctuation):

"They're building a second building ... there and as Elon confirmed during the call it's gonna be used for creating battery packs now what most people don't know is that those battery packs are going to be using LG Chem cells now these cells are of the same 2170 size variety as is currently made by Panasonic in Gigafactory one now the mystery of these cells is going to attempt to mimic important word here mimic the chemistry of the Panasonic batteries now why do we say mimic because the thing is so the cell chemical formula for the battery was developed by Panasonic and Tesla in tandem so Tesla has the chemical formula and they gave it to LG for them to create those batteries but LG they have different production process and different manufacturing equipment and due to that even though they receive the chemical formula from Tesla the batteries will still be a little bit different they'll have slightly less capacity but the difference will not be huge so basically when it comes to creating standard range as Elon said it can just cram in a couple extra batteries to make up the difference no problem but when it comes to the long range they obviously can't do that because the long-range battery pack is already packed to the brim with cells so Eli Tesla has said that they're not going to be producing long range at Gigafactory but actually turns out according to our source that they are but not right now the difference will be that it'll still be a long range Tesla but the long range will be slightly less range than the one produced by Fremont and Gigafactory one in Nevada in the US now it's still long range I mean the difference can be like I don't know 10 or 20 kilometers we're just still hell of a lot than the standard range hell of a lot more than even the middle range Lemur but obviously less than us-made long range and that's not a huge deal really the biggest issue I'd are not doing immediately is because they are cell constrained and that comes as no surprise I mean it even comes the Gigafactory 3 was built so quickly less than a year even Tesla wasn't expecting that so obviously LG Chem is not ready to accommodate a large production of Tesla cells and once they do get their production ramped up then the attesa mites actually start making the long range in Gigafactory 3 as well so let's get back to one thing I said earlier why is Gigafactory 3 not going to build more than 3 thousand model 3s and 2019 well our source as said this is his belief of course but here's what it's based on turns out the Gigafactory 3 has a very important priority and that priority is quality from the moment they start manufacturing every model 3 needs to be at a quality level equal to Fremont or exceeding it so Fremont is the low bar here which is quite surprising and it definitely it's a very commendable gold desolate is definitely has its priorities straight I mean no panel gaps no water leaking in nothing like that and from the moment Gigafactory 3 starts production everything needs to be at a high quality level and it really is the right thing to do Tesla battery investor day it's come we're summing February March I know that you-tuber Galilei Russell believes that test will be unveiling that they're gonna produce their own batteries but he and I disagree on how soon that will happen and in what way here's what I believe is going to happen based on some of the inside information we've had and that is that you know Maxwell they create the dry electrode and the electrode is only part of the battery and so what is most likely going to happen is that Maxwell we'd be taking over a part of the battery production but not the entire thing and so what does that make Tesla it makes Tesla a supplier a supplier to Panasonic maybe a supplier to LG for its batteries for Gigafactory 3 who knows but it's not there's still a lot of - battery production that Tesla cannot simply do on its own the battery industry is full of patents industrial secrets and due to that Tesla can't just reinvent the wheel reinvent the battery in this case out of nothing and they are buying some companies to come to you know to put the piece of the puzzle together but they're not there yet and there's still a huge chunk missing so here's the interesting option to speculate on Panasonic right now financially is not doing all that well and it's market cap is only like 20 billion compared to Tesla's more than 50 billion and if Tesla continues is earning money the way it is right now in a couple of years it's possible Tesla could try to simply buy the cylindrical cell division from Panasonic that would make a lot of sense financially for everyone actually and I'm not saying this is going to happen but it's definitely an interesting option to keep in mind it's within the realms of possibility."​

The takeaways:

• Tesla co-owns the 2,170 chemistry and LG will make it for them - but not perfectly initially, with slightly lower range. This confirms the reports from Korea from a few weeks ago that the LG Chem pack will be different from the Panasonic pack.
• The fact that the initial GF3 production in Q1 and possibly Q2 too will be using U.S. made battery packs explains why pricing for the SR+ is still around $50k.
• GF3 was built faster than even Tesla believed it to be possible, so LG Chem's cell production is a bit out of phase, and they are using GF1 packs for that reason. LOL.
• Maxwell: according to his source Maxwell might start supplying dry electrodes to both Panasonic and to LG. I.e. Tesla will be both supplier to Panasonic and customer as well. Makes sense from what we know about Maxwell's process. Unclear whether Panasonic would play ball.
• Tesla potentially buying Panasonic's cylindrical business is something we speculated about here too. I believe @ReflexFunds was speculating along those lines in the past.
• Very high initial production quality goals for GF3: it must meet or exceed current Fremont quality. (!) I.e. no panel gaps or other ramp-up imperfections accepted.

Do you have a sense of what an acquisition of Panasonic’s cylindrical cells division would look like? What do we think this division would cost Tesla (and hence would this be a cash deal or shares)?

The Energy segment of the Auto Business had revenues of ¥700bn ($6.5bn) in the full year ending March 2019, although this also included prismatic batteries for the domestic market. This is about 8% of the total revenue number for Panasonic.

I’ve had a quick squizz but I haven’t yet found a clear breakdown for profit by segment. Given it was loss making prior to Tesla sorting their Model 3 ramp, hard to see more than a few percentage points on a Net Income margin basis?

The other data point is in Tesla’s own accounts that they have capitalised costs of $1.64bn related to equipment at GF1 under the arrangement with Panasonic.

So where do we put this? $3bn?

Hard to know how the market would react in the short term to such an acquisition.