Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Anybody read the first portion of Bloomberg's Model 3 owner survey? Just came out this afternoon. Very deceiving IMHO. Looks to me like the 3 compared very well to the industry, but you would never know it to read this. Recommend everyone check it out.

Don't you have to give money to Bloomberg (subscription) to read it? That's something I don't want to do.

 

[Cartegena]

Latest American Auto Warranty Expenses, 18 July 2019 7/18/2019

At the end of 2018, GM had a capacity of 31 months, or just over 2-1/2 years. Tesla had a capacity of 37 months, or just over three years. But Ford, because its claims rate rose last year while its reserve balance fell, was down to only 12 months at the end of 2018, though it rose to 16 months in the first quarter of 2019.

How does that compare with the size of the respective fleets' remaining periods under warranty?

 

[Singer3000]

A curious little nugget (or nougat) from the 10Q:

Capital expenditures in 2019 are projected to be slightly below $1.5 billion, to continue to develop our main projects such as the global manufacturing expansion of Model 3, launch and ramp of Model Y, and launch of Tesla Semi, including additional vertical integration of our supply chain and production process

Further to this, capitalised costs relating to Panasonic's investments at Giga 1 amounted to a paltry $50m this quarter. The previous 3 quarters Panasonic invested $500m, with $230m in Q2 alone. The total since 2017 is $1.7bn.

So Panasonic have stopped spending money at Giga 1 right before Tesla are due to launch Model Y, launch a new industrial scale storage product, and with Semi on the horizon. Curiouser and curiouser...

 

[MC3OZ]

I guess, produced en mass, the glass roof ain't that much of a price burden.
Also, I strongly feel that its purpose is much more than cost more than cheaper 'alternatives'

The glass roof can be fixed last allowing robots to put the seats in, this is an issue for Model 3.

Any compact car is likely to be built in China, it may have a different design, and perhaps the cost of people, or newer smarter robots putting the seats in will mean a metal roof is viable.

 

[Skryll]

I predict that will eventually turn out to be the most expensive concert you've ever seen.

Like that guy who spent 10,000 bitcoin on a pizza Bitcoin Pizza Day: Celebrating the $80 Million Pizza Order

 

[EVNow]

Further to this, capitalised costs relating to Panasonic's investments at Giga 1 amounted to a paltry $50m this quarter. The previous 3 quarters Panasonic invested $500m, with $230m in Q2 alone. The total since 2017 is $1.7bn.

So Panasonic have stopped spending money at Giga 1 right before Tesla are due to launch Model Y, launch a new industrial scale storage product, and with Semi on the horizon. Curiouser and curiouser...

Its almost as if the big news about Panasonic deciding to not invest further in GF1 that was pooh-poohed was real news.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

When we look back on this era in 4 or 5 years I think we'll see the Panasonic 1Q19 drama in a different light. Is consensus around here that Panasonic basically held GF1 production back to negotiate a better deal? Maybe we can fully discuss now that bankwuptcy isn't a remotely valid talking point?

 

[kengchang]

Its almost as if the big news about Panasonic deciding to not invest further in GF1 that was pooh-poohed was real news.

I mean the installed equipment capacity is good for 35GW and I don't think they are there yet.

 

[EVNow]

I mean the installed equipment capacity is good for 35GW and I don't think they are there yet.

But that is not enough for energy + 3 + Y. And Tesla says
- They will continue to expand production of 3 and they don't think there will be any cannibalization of 3 by Y (giving the example of S increasing sales after the introduction of X)
- Have 1k/wk production of Y in 9 months
- Increase energy sales a lot

Clearly Tesla is working on alternate arrangements.

 

[wipster]

Don't you have to give money to Bloomberg (subscription) to read it? That's something I don't want to do.

Ha! On my phone it says it gives you 10 free articles a month. But I've found if you close the app after you read the article, for some reason it doesn't count them. I'm at about 30 for this month.

I just don't like the way this info was laid out as almost everything shown is negative, however almost every issue was resolved, a lot OTA. They gloss over how much almost every owner loves the car and say they will never go back to an ICE vehicle.

 

[EVNow]

When we look back on this era in 4 or 5 years I think we'll see the Panasonic 1Q19 drama in a different light. Is consensus around here that Panasonic basically held GF1 production back to negotiate a better deal? Maybe we can fully discuss now that bankwuptcy isn't a remotely valid talking point?

I definitely don't think so - Panasonic just took a long time to ramp up. They were losing money - so didn't make sense for them to produce less and make Tesla angry.

 

[Remus]

But that is not enough for energy + 3 + Y. And Tesla says
- They will continue to expand production of 3 and they don't think there will be any cannibalization of 3 by Y (giving the example of S increasing sales after the introduction of X)
- Have 1k/wk production of Y in 9 months
- Increase energy sales a lot

Clearly Tesla is working on alternate arrangements.

I thought that we had that conclusion when we discussed the recent acquisitions.

 

[brian45011]

Clearly Tesla is working on alternate arrangements.

Acquisitions?
Tesla paid $207 million (all stock) for MXWL--of which $105 million is intangible assets and $79 million is goodwill.
Tesla paid $96 million ($80 million cash) for "Other Acquisitions"--of which $36 million is intangible assets and $ 41 million is goodwill.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I thought that we had that conclusion when we discussed the recent acquisitions.

Yes, but in a light font. Now you can bold it.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Prediction. Each time SpaceX launch astronauts, TSLA will fall. Each time successful, TSLA will climb.

 

[StealthP3D]

Prediction. Each time SpaceX launch astronauts, TSLA will fall. Each time successful, TSLA will climb.

What about the return trip? Probably just as dangerous, maybe more so?

 

[ZeApelido]

So apparently "Elon" means "tree" in Hebrew.

So the person leading the company at the forefront of fighting global warming is named Tree.

We are living in a simulation.

 

[Singuy]

You know I was thinking..Tesla is no longer making Panasonic solar panels at all at the Buffalo plant. For months now they most likely dedicated their solar production to solar roof only since they have outsourced their retrofit to Hanwha SolarOne.

 

[Thekiwi]

I asked this in another thread but didn’t get any responses,

Is model 3 leasing revenue likely to snowball significantly higher?

Model 3 leasing only started in Q2. Those vehicles, directly leased from Tesla, will bring in high margin leasing revenue for the length of the lease period of up to 4 years.

Therefore, for the next several years there will be new lease vehicles sold every quarter adding to the ongoing lease revenue, with no substantial amount of leased vehicles being removed (aside from the odd early termination).

So unless I have this wrong (please tell me if I do), then even if tesla only added the same amount of model 3 lease vehicles as the last quarter for the next 10 quarters - then quarterly model 3 lease revenue would be approximately 10x higher than current quarterly amount.

 

[StealthP3D]

So apparently "Elon" means "tree" in Hebrew.

So the person leading the company at the forefront of fighting global warming is named Tree.

No wonder TSLAQ calls anyone who likes their Tesla a tree-hugger!