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I wonder if the relatively gradual timescales for electrification by some automakers is related to job protection of their workforce.

No, what automakers are interesting in is selling billions of dollars worth of vehicles. Any vehicles. They mostly don't know how to do that with EV. Look at GM with the Bolt. a perfectly reasonable EV that few people want. How much confidence does GM senior management posses on EV strategy now.

Tesla has taken up almost all the air in the EV space. Tesla has figured out how to sell EV even though they are not yet cost competitive with ICE.
 
I wonder if the relatively gradual timescales for electrification by some automakers is related to job protection of their workforce. EV assembly is much simpler than ICE, and may be more amenable to automation. A sudden changeover could leave thousands of redundant workers.

In the US, we just had a long strike against GM over downsizing and other issues. And it’s my understanding that it’s more difficult for companies to downsize in Europe due to job protections. Twenty years or so may seem like a more manageable timeframe for such a significant rework of their product lines.

Of course, the market may not evolve at their preferred pace...
I'd refer you to that very good Der Spiegel article that @ReflexFunds posted a day or two ago. Will Tesla and Google kill the German Car. It lists some of the challenges and setbacks being faced by German companies, very interesting read. I'd say that the Germans are even further back than I thought and maybe BMW fails first. They seem hopeless. VW is going to make a push but over time that is going to gut a vertically integrated entity and they don't make or own the two key pieces of the pie: batteries or software. Good luck to them all. Chinese firms are further ahead than the Germans...thought more about it, experimenting.
 
Looks like another usage for the rarely-purchased Canada Model 3 SR-:

Tesla Gets Creative For Model 3 Customers In Canada | CleanTechnica

EDIT: Is this like the Canadian initiative where, as long as the base model is below €40,000, all Model 3's get the greater incentive? If not, then I doubt they'd go for the larger incentive.

EDIT 2: This is not like the Canadian initiative. As is the case, I don't think they will make any attempt for the extra €1k incentive.
There were exactly ZERO Canadian SR- Model 3s produced. Within days of Tesla announcement, the Government of Canada updated the ZEV rebate program to allow SR+ to qualifiy (and the future Model Y SR+ due to its 7-seat configuration):

Zero-emission vehicles - Transport Canada

What vehicles are eligible?
  • vehicles with six seats or fewer, where the base model (trim) Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) is less than $45,000
    • higher priced versions (trims) of these vehicles, up to a maximum MSRP of $55,000, will also be eligible for an incentive
And
  • vehicles with seven seats or greater, where the base model MSRP is less than $55,000
    • higher priced versions (trims) of these vehicles, up to a maximum MSRP of $60,000, will also be eligible for an incentive
In either case, the rebate is 5,000 CAD for the SR+ variant. BTW, for a $60K Model Y that $5K rebate is the equivalent of rebating a 12% sales tax (which varies by Province in Canada).
 
So you, actually think the current order flow is the best tsla can get? The $320 SP is the best tsla can get?

It is sad you, like a few other longs, try to put me into the short group. And what entitles you to be a real bull: claiming everything is perfect and accepting the toothlessness of FUD?

If you have a solid suggestion to eliminate FUD, I would like to hear it...

Most simply understand that those peddling FUD are slowly spending the credibility, and increasingly they are being ignored.

The best counter to FUD is for Tesla to keep succeeding, and I think the order flow an do much better, the next target is 1 Million vehicles per year, I prefer that they ignore FUD and concentrate on that target.
 
I did some research on uses of corn in the USA. Here's what I found:

World of Corn 2019

Short summary:
Feeding animals for protein/milk production ~41%
Ethanol ~34.5%
Exports: (Probably mostly for the ethanol and animal feed)15.4%
Human consumption ~8%

It is really pretty extraordinary how little of this stuff humans actually eat directly. BEV adoption will put enormous pressure on the price of corn, land prices, and the entire ag economy. The way the US Senate and Electoral college are gerrymandered, we will be seeing no small amount of political pressure following along with the stresses on the local economies.

The other thing to keep in mind is that even considering no deterioration of demand due to BEV ramping, production will continue to increase.

Historical Corn Grain Yields for the U.S. (Purdue University)

This chart shows how the per acre increase in production has ramped along a fairly tidy trendline, but what it does not show is how good modern hybrids have become. Land that was previously not suitable for corn farming is now producing well, so as yield increases on a per acre basis, it also increases the acres planted. With all this in mind, unless there is a huge discovery (bioplastics for example) I see a glut of corn in the medium term and a lot of pain, disruption, and turmoil in corn country.

On a more positive note, I did a little calculation for land use, and one can generate almost 100x the miles with an acre of solar panels vs an acre of corn ethanol, though it costs a bit more to plant a solar field than a cornfield.

They can make biodegradable plastics out of the excess corn to prop up prices. Knowing how this racket works, they probably will.
 
Ah ha! I have a theory.....

My theory by Steve M is.....

The Kansas corn farmers have learned that they will lose their ethonal subsidies if the automotive industry goes electric.

The Kansas Association of Corn Farmers (KACF) has taken a short position on Tesla and has been spreading FUD like it is manure to drive us longs into the weeds.

Best solution for us is to start buying corn liquire to consume the extra KACF produce.

You have all been warned!
 
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Maybe in California, but please come to Texas, on I-35 between Dallas and San Antonio, three lanes wide each direction and the posted speed limit is 75, but the real speed limit is 80-85 EV or ICE. You will be surprised how fast 18 wheels can go, and who passing you while you are at 80. And that is during the day, wait till the wee hours of the night.

In California, the speed limit for class 8 trucks is 55, although I see them running at 65 up and down I-5, but seldom much faster than that. In Texas, the speed limit is 75, even for trucks. For many commercial trucks, the speed is regulated by whoever is paying for the gas rather than the driver.

It varies significantly by state: Complete List of Truck Speed Limit Laws In Each State
 
On a more positive note, I did a little calculation for land use, and one can generate almost 100x the miles with an acre of solar panels vs an acre of corn ethanol, though it costs a bit more to plant a solar field than a cornfield.

Although you only have to plant the solar field once. Might be an interesting option to lease former crop land to energy producers. As a former Iowan, I could image the challenge of keeping the panels snow-free in the winter.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: UncaNed
It's hard to effectively fight FUD. We need more ideas and actions. For tesla, or EV to become more main stream, we need to educate the general public. Lots of bulls dismiss most FUD as laughable(well, they are, actually one of the original reasons for me to be bullish is the ludicrousness of these FUD) , but general public are not that informed or attentative. They are general public after all.

Maybe starting with suing those prominent FUD creator for defamation and security fraud?

If you have a solid suggestion to eliminate FUD, I would like to hear it...

Most simply understand that those peddling FUD are slowly spending the credibility, and increasingly they are being ignored.

The best counter to FUD is for Tesla to keep succeeding, and I think the order flow an do much better, the next target is 1 Million vehicles per year, I prefer that they ignore FUD and concentrate on that target.
 
It's hard to effectively fight FUD. We need more ideas and actions. For tesla, or EV to become more main stream, we need to educate the general public. Lots of bulls dismiss most FUD as laughable(well, they are, actually one of the original reasons for me to be bullish is the ludicrousness of these FUD) , but general public are not that informed or attentative. They are general public after all.

Maybe starting with suing those prominent FUD creator for defamation and security fraud?

My solution would be to get a positive message with the real facts out there, via targeted advertising and then having a website page debunking common myths or listing the advantages of Tesla.

Sooner or later the general public are going to have a friend, neighbour or relative driving a Tesla, a lot of my friends and family are naturally curious... Most smart people know EVs are the future, and Tesla currently makes the best EVs,,, Some are just a little cautious and prefer to wait to see how things pan out for early adopters...
 
Although you only have to plant the solar field once. Might be an interesting option to lease former crop land to energy producers. As a former Iowan, I could image the challenge of keeping the panels snow-free in the winter.
Have on a spring-loaded hinge that is triggered by the snow weight, drops the panel to vertical, dumps the snow, and returns to it's normal position.
 
MOD:

Pretty poor quality of posts in today's basket, everyone*. If I go back to cutting off my access to the internet, it's unlikely to solve that problem, though it likely will diminish the pain in my eyes.

But I think there are other ways to raise the bar. Maybe all of you can, too....

*As in, "listen up, everyone!" Not as in every post was pathetic, let alone deplorable.
 
Don't get all of this talk about FUD and its effectiveness. Like I stated before, you can go to the FUD well too many times before it becomes common place, and then ignored. If Tesla keeps putting out good numbers, and proving its a market leader , that will win any day, all day against fake or real FUD.

The Tesla news is kind of slow now and everyone is anxious for the Pickup debut which will be just as important as the Y on the market. Why? (You see what I did there :D) Because IMO, it will be the future high margin profit maker if done right, and spawn other vehicles such as a CUV.
 
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There were exactly ZERO Canadian SR- Model 3s produced. Within days of Tesla announcement, the Government of Canada updated the ZEV rebate program to allow SR+ to qualifiy (and the future Model Y SR+ due to its 7-seat configuration):

Zero-emission vehicles - Transport Canada

What vehicles are eligible?
  • vehicles with six seats or fewer, where the base model (trim) Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) is less than $45,000
    • higher priced versions (trims) of these vehicles, up to a maximum MSRP of $55,000, will also be eligible for an incentive
And
  • vehicles with seven seats or greater, where the base model MSRP is less than $55,000
    • higher priced versions (trims) of these vehicles, up to a maximum MSRP of $60,000, will also be eligible for an incentive
In either case, the rebate is 5,000 CAD for the SR+ variant. BTW, for a $60K Model Y that $5K rebate is the equivalent of rebating a 12% sales tax (which varies by Province in Canada).

I don’t think anyone (at least I wasn’t) was suggesting a different hardware variant to get into the lowest tier for incentive, but rather the software limited SR+ model (that can be upgraded later) like that used elsewhere,

On the topic of Canada - Tesla still sells the software limited model there for $44,999, as seen by the screenshot below from Tesla Canada site. (by phone or in store). However they also say the SR+ at $54,700 is eligible, but when you head to the actual online store the recent price increase takes the SR+ to $55,990, meaning it is no longer eligible for the sub-$55k incentive (also, misses out on the $3k extra incentive in British Columbia province).

EDIT: as per MTL_HABS1909 below by @mtl_habs, the current Canadian price includes delivery etc, so MSRP still makes it eligible for incentives.

496D8E71-C010-4105-B30A-114CB1892863.jpeg
 
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I'd refer you to that very good Der Spiegel article that @ReflexFunds posted a day or two ago. Will Tesla and Google kill the German Car. It lists some of the challenges and setbacks being faced by German companies, very interesting read. I'd say that the Germans are even further back than I thought and maybe BMW fails first. They seem hopeless. VW is going to make a push but over time that is going to gut a vertically integrated entity and they don't make or own the two key pieces of the pie: batteries or software. Good luck to them all. Chinese firms are further ahead than the Germans...thought more about it, experimenting.
Actually the Koreans are the automakers I believe will make the quickest inroads into BEV's. They already make some pretty good rigs and they're not only fast learners, they're fast becoming innovaters as well... they're beyond the Japanese who are starting to look like Detroit in the 60's. Toyota in particular really surprises me as all the success and experience they've had with the Prius should have given them a big head start on making great battery only vehicles but they've been content to sit on their butts while developing hydrogen cars... huge mistake IMHO.

Hope this post is acceptable...
 
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