Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Sold a few at 320..bought them back at 315.

Sold again at 325

I await your accolades.

Why did you sell at only $325? We're talking about the premier EV manufacturer in the world at a time when EV adoption is increasing exponentially and we're going into the strongest quarter of the year with a lot of potential positive catalysts waiting in the wings and with sentiment turning strongly positive.

I'll give you accolades if you are able to re-acquire those shares again for significantly less. But the accolades wouldn't be for your investing acumen, it would be for your risk tolerance (for potentially missing out with those shares) given all the positives outlined above.

Now here's a mind-blower that will make you never want to day trade again: The performance for the S&P 500 cumulatively during market hours (open to close) since 1993 is actually negative! That's right, all the gains and then some, cumulatively speaking, happen between the market close and the next market open! Here are the details of a recent study of S&P 500 gains:

The Stock Market Works by Day, but It Loves the Night

If you had bought the SPY at the last second of trading on each business day since 1993 and sold at the market open the next day — capturing all of the net after-hour gains — your cumulative price gain would be 571 percent.

On the other hand, if you had done the reverse, buying the E.T.F. at the first second of regular trading every morning at 9:30 a.m. and selling at the 4 p.m. close, you would be down 4.4 percent since 1993.

By day trading, and not holding the shares overnight, you are stacking the odds against yourself!

 

[Carl Raymond]

Ironically it is the FUD that completely protects Tesla from a buyout from someone like Apple.

Elon Musk is what will always protect Tesla from hostile takeover.

Personally, I think Tesla is mature enough now to survive if Musk was hit by a bus, but I know there is almost universal disagreement when I express this.

To the market, Tesla is Elon. A bidder can buy Tesla, but they cannot buy Elon’s heart and soul. They would have to pay the premium that the market attaches to Elon’s heart, then immediately lose it, a very bad deal.

 

[StealthP3D]

So a quick question here from an uneducated investor.

Is it reasonable to expect short interest in TSLA to increase as the price goes up, all other things being equal, since it could be seen as more of an opportunity to cash in on an eventual fall in price? Seems like the way many on that side of the stock would think.

Dan

That's not what the TSLA short sale data has been telling us. If the data is accurate, TSLA short-sellers are more likely to short at a low price and cover at a high price, statistically speaking.

If that sounds odd to you it's easily explained. They have *sugar* for brains.

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon Musk is what will always protect Tesla from hostile takeover.

Personally, I think Tesla is mature enough now to survive if Musk was hit by a bus, but I know there is almost universal disagreement when I express this.

To the market, Tesla is Elon. A bidder can buy Tesla, but they cannot buy Elon’s heart and soul. They would have to pay the premium that the market attaches to Elon’s heart, then immediately lose it, a very bad deal.

The reason you have had so many disagrees on that perspective is that it under-estimates the value of Elon Musk to the company. I would also like to acknowledge the work of under-mentioned JB Straubel and Franz van Holzhausen who both made many essential contributions to Tesla's success. For certain without these three, Tesla would not be anything. Going forward they are all very important too. No one can say with certainty how the companies future would be different without one or more of them but do not underestimate their contributions and the difficulty of finding replacements that could do as good of a job. It's entirely possible that going forward Elon Musk is the only person who would make it work. Of course, it's all opinion because there is no way to test the theory.

While Tesla, like all companies, made some mistakes, I cannot over-emphasize, over the thousands of decisions these guys made, the difficulty of not making one or more decisions that cumulatively caused the company to fail (or at the very least, struggle a lot more than they have). All that decision making can be likened to threading a needle having a very small eye with a thread that is slightly frayed and a little bigger than optimum.

My hat is off to the entire Tesla team and especially the people at the top that have worked tirelessly to realize a better vision for all. Well, perhaps not for the short-sellers!

 

[StealthP3D]

ANY involvement between Apple and Tesla would cause a violent move to $700s and would wipe out the $TSLAQ meme for good. It could be Apple purchasing a stake, software involvement, anything.

It could even be Tim Cook lamenting the fact that they didn't start thinking about developing EV's in 2003 like Musk and Straubel did (and who actually acted on it). This would highlight that Tesla has paid their auto-manufacturing dues by constantly developing EV's over the previous 12 years.

That's as close as I want to see Apple get to Tesla - lamenting what they didn't do.

 

[3Victoria]

It could even be Tim Cook lamenting the fact that they didn't start thinking about developing EV's in 2003 like Musk and Straubel did (and who actually acted on it). This would highlight that Tesla has paid their auto-manufacturing dues by constantly developing EV's over the previous 12 years.

That's as close as I want to see Apple get to Tesla - lamenting what they didn't do.

Kudos to Straubel, he drove the idea of batteries and EVs, kudos for Musk for seeing the potential and running with it, driving to not just good-enough, but excellence, and kudos to van Holzhausen for his designing skills and taste. Lastly kudos for all the employees that grasped the baton and drove the company forwards. Too many to list here. Their prize is knowing that they contributed to not just a fabulous car, but changing the world to sustainable energy. I thank them all.

 

[Unpilot]

Why did you sell at only $325? We're talking about the premier EV manufacturer in the world at a time when EV adoption is increasing exponentially and we're going into the strongest quarter of the year with a lot of potential positive catalysts waiting in the wings and with sentiment turning strongly positive.

I'll give you accolades if you are able to re-acquire those shares again for significantly less. But the accolades wouldn't be for your investing acumen, it would be for your risk tolerance (for potentially missing out with those shares) given all the positives outlined above.

Now here's a mind-blower that will make you never want to day trade again: The performance for the S&P 500 cumulatively during market hours (open to close) since 1993 is actually negative! That's right, all the gains and then some, cumulatively speaking, happen between the market close and the next market open! Here are the details of a recent study of S&P 500 gains:

The Stock Market Works by Day, but It Loves the Night



By day trading, and not holding the shares overnight, you are stacking the odds against yourself!

Well it's pretty simple.
I used .014265335235378 percent of my TSLA holding to make this trade.
I have no plans to day trade and only made this because I wanted to show how smart/competent/brilliant I am.
And then I posted about it because I think it's pretty funny.

So it was a satirical post about my brilliant trading of the day.

 

[traxila]

That's not what the TSLA short sale data has been telling us. If the data is accurate, TSLA short-sellers are more likely to short at a low price and cover at a high price, statistically speaking.

If that sounds odd to you it's easily explained. They have *sugar* for brains.

The reverse also applies. When trading, people are more likely to buy high and sell low. We are hard wired to be stupid at this financial stuff. It takes a good math education, a fundamental understanding of statistics and an iron discipline over emotion to overcome this. Rare indeed.

 

[KSilver2000]

Can we stop with all the nonsense about Apple possibly acquiring Tesla.

 

[Navin]

Anyone know how to say “how about them apples” in Chinese??

 

[Carl Raymond]

The reverse also applies. When trading, people are more likely to buy high and sell low. We are hard wired to be stupid at this financial stuff. It takes a good math education, a fundamental understanding of statistics and an iron discipline over emotion to overcome this. Rare indeed.

The math and statistics are not so hard.
Is today’s price 10x higher than what I paid?
If No, wait.

 

[Artful Dodger]

why not grab a spot in the line

 

[Off Shore]

The math and statistics are not so hard.
Is today’s price 10x higher than what I paid?
If No, wait.

Low expectations!

 

[MC3OZ]

I found this report interesting:- Three countries are leading the renewable energy revolution

Especially this section:-

"For example, such is the growth across the SHS market, the technology is forecast to bring basic electricity services to almost 70 million more people in Asia and sub Saharan Africa by 2022, the report says."

 

[Causalien]

I will interject that 'The crystal ball' (Causalien's) made me a nice profit over the years. I don't listen to any one person to decide how to invest but he has been pretty darn accurate over the several years he has been on this site.

Glad to hear some people made money and still remember the crystal ball and 8 ball. Had to clarify though. That quote has nothing to do with the crystal ball. Since I've retired from making predictions. It was just bankroll management caution. Plus $320 has been a historic support turned resistance.

The final Crystal ball prediction has not come to fruition and will remain the same. $180 as the bottom (when someone asked me to confirm, was not a prophecy), recession and $500 both happen within 2 years (which has the deadline at 2020).

The last semi prescience recommendation that I said that used some of the 8 balls power is to load up at $220~$240 (can't remember the exact price) but since I myself cannot act on it (due to bankroll management rules that doesn't allow me to increase my stakes anymore), I did not really do the usual due diligence verifying that one so it cannot be categorized as one of the 8 balls prophecies.

I do wonder a lot of the time if the dog wags the tail or the tail wags the dog. As the 8 ball and crystal balls becomes more accurate, more market movers begins to move based on it.I think by now, people have probably already forgotten about the prophecies so we can probably rule out the tail wagging the dog, but there's no way to go about verifying this.

 

[AudubonB]

Uh oh.

Elon got hit by a buss.
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[dmckinstry]

I will interject that 'The crystal ball' (Causalien's) made me a nice profit over the years. I don't listen to any one person to decide how to invest but he has been pretty darn accurate over the several years he has been on this site.

I thought it was his "magic eight ball".

 

[Carl Raymond]

Low expectations!

If No, wait.
If Yes, sell only what you need to.

 

[traxila]

The math and statistics are not so hard.

Yah, 96% of the global population does not agree, and the other 3.9 percent have their figures wrong.

Guess you are making a daily killing in the stock market. Congrats.

To be clear, I do not include myself in the 0.1%.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Guess you are making a daily killing

Not interested in trying to make a daily killing. An ultimate killing without all the stress is just fine thanks.