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OT:
I didn’t follow very closely who started to steer the “one more thing” expectation for the truck event.
But I would suspect there are trolls trying to setup a disappointment for the event, by pushing unrealistic expectations.

My take is, there is no “one more thing”, no normal looking truck, no panel van, no other derivatives of the same platform.(except concept drawings maybe)

But, one feature could become the highlight of the day, in Elon’s Air Force event speech, he used the phrase “it’s literally bulletproof” to describe the pickup, I think he really means the truck will be bulletproof.
Fireside Chat: Lt Gen Thompson & Elon Musk
We know the semi has bulletproof windshield so Tesla is already researching those glasses. Plus we are almost certain the windshield of pickup span all the way from roof top to front bumper, means it could(or have to) become a structural component, which need to use very strong glass. Btw, it’s perfectly flat, probably the best shape for thick ballistic glass without distorting the view.
For doors and other body panels, they could be fitted with titanium plate similar to the under body panel in Model S, all even directly made of titanium panels(in that case the base color of the truck would be naked titanium, :eek:).

So my “one more thing” is, Tesla will announce the expected Protection Level Rating of the truck, which may not be as good as an APC, but enough to survive a zombie apocalypse.
Even the civilized Model X has the bio defense mode, is it really too much to ask for a bulletproof truck?:D

This is a great catch. Thanks for posting it.

Elon said Cybertruck is "literally bulletproof." I think this slipped out because he is so excited about the product ("best thing we've ever made"). Let's think about what it means.

A large market for the truck is folks who will use it for work: contractors, trailer haulers, etc. These folks care most about its practical capabilities such as 120 volt outlets, torque, and towing limits. I expect Tesla will easily capture this market, regardless of the vehicle's style.

But I suspect a far larger market (someone please check the numbers) is men (and a few women) for whom a truck is an expression of their identity. They're manly men, goddammit, not some tree-hugging, golf-cart-driving, wine-sipping, salad-chewing, pansy-ass California Nancy-boys who wouldn't know a gun from a dildo. These real men have gun racks in their cabs, whether they hunt much or not, and might key a pretty Tesla if they ever saw one outside the bar. These men want TOUGH, as demonstrated by countless truck commercials, like that new Ford that pulled a goddamn TRAIN.

So tell them Tesla's new truck is bulletproof. And looks like an armored personnel carrier.

Well goddamn...
 
Yes - first time I've heard Dojo described.

So, probably some new HW to make training faster ? Currently their training needs 70k GPU hours.
Dojo was mentioned once or twice before but without much detail other than that they would use it to train from video (rather than only images - as it takes so much power to do just images, you can imagine how much more performance is needed for video).

From autonomy day, Elon said:
“We do have a major program at Tesla which we don’t have enough time to talk about today called “Dojo”. That’s a super powerful training computer. The goal of Dojo will be to be able to take in vast amounts of data and train at a video level and do unsupervised massive training of vast amounts of video with the Dojo program – or Dojo computer.”
 
Yeah looking for Model X sites and 'accidentally' ended up on an X-rated site and that was the first video up...……..!

Your googling is better than mine. I searched for "Model X" in my favorite, ahem, site, but then I got... distracted.

Apparently, there is a user with the name "Tesla Taylor" though, and they have a number of model S videos. I think this is the one that caused that one infamous Overlord Musk tweet.
 
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Why would you claim Tesla accident rates are worse than BMW/Mercedes etc?

It is not even possible for other luxury manufacturers to track their accident rates so the data you are claiming just doesn't exist.

It seems highly improbable though. Taking Tesla's Q3 reported one crash per 2.7 million miles for cars without Autopilot but with Autopilot's free safety features, Tesla cars crash c.10x less regularly than the US average (that is 2.7 million miles divided by NHTSA's reported market average one crash per 498k miles multiplied by NHTSA's reported 1.8 cars on average per crash). The real numbers are even larger - likely one crash per 150k miles per car in the US after accounting for non reporting of minor accidents (for insurance reasons) which are still detected by Tesla's software. This puts Teslas currently at 18x less crashes per mile. You are saying other luxury cars do better than that? Using what superior technology exactly?

It does happen to be a long term #TSLAQ talking point. I know a traffic safety engineer who does have access to data like that who related the claim to me. Interestingly, he could not back it up either and instead segued into "but Teslas literally explode." Because if one made up claim doesn't fly you cycle to the next one.

If it were actually true then the NHTSA would have Tesla's ass. Think about it for a minute. In the last NHTSA "investigation" mentioned here* the NHTSA statement on it said something along the lines of "we're going to find something here to attack autopilot with" which always struck me as the wrong approach for an investigation -- they know their desired result before starting and are just looking for anything they can twist to that purpose. If they had anything to use against Tesla they already would have. Ergo, Tesla accident rates are not excessive compared to their peers.

* This was one where the "semi truck ran a stop sign, entering the roadway from behind a line of trees leaving insufficient time for the driver or driver system to respond and avoid the accident." That much was clear from the information provided by the NHTSA in their preliminary statement.
 
Fully Charged posted an interview with the Rivian engineers discussing their battery design. They allude to having better energy density compared to "competitors" due to better cooling methods. Any thoughts on this.

Tesla is continually improving anyway, but interesting to see if there is another company who can match them in this area.

relevant point starts at 13:00 mins
 
Maybe not anymore. Some danish scientists have put cows on a diet and removed 99% of their methane output.

Shouldn't that be Moothane?


What if instead of buying Panasonic and short term CATL/LG contracts they did long term partnerships with all of them and shared technical IP for cells and partnered to scale up to 2 TWh annual production? Wouldn’t that put a nail in the ICE and fossil utility industry, scale up a lower margin cell business and increase margins on the higher value auto and Tesla energy business?
The fastest path to 5 million cars a year is minimize cell investment, but will require Tesla to reinvent and drive the growth.

Tesla's battery day will be of signal importance. How will we reach 2 terawatt hours of production? The number spells out a seismic shift in the real world.


Keep in mind that at the moment ALL BMW suv's are produced only in the USA. That is obviously subject to change, and certainly will given the Trump administration posture.

Already happened, though the BMW X3 was a logical candidate given the enormous sales of crossovers in all the world's big markets. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


New Not sure if posted yet.
Made-in-China Model 3 First Drive: the Miracle 丨 ENGLISH
Thank you for posting, a must watch! I figure its reach on Tencent must be impressive.
And according to the presenter (who can compare), this made in China Model 3 has better sound insulation.
I can't imagine that Tesla would omit that from the Fremont version.
Tesla Model 3 built in China - 2019.jpg




for mass adoption of EV's. The cost is the only major remaining barrier. Cheaper batteries will turn Tesla into a cash printing machine
...
As Popeye the sailorman might say, "Shiver me timbers!", an exclamation from the days when wood boats were used for global transport and exploration. Under gale force winds the working crew noticed that when the wind built to a dangerous level, the heavily loaded spars and masts could start vibrating rapidly, making eirie sounds while threatening to explode. Basically, what immediately precedes "All hell breaking loose". Currently, we are just starting to sail into the storm, I think all hell is going to break loose in 2021. But don't worry, plenty of fun before then.

Great post - thank you. And as for excellent analogies, I think this one will stick in my mind.


Project Dojo seems to be a custom system for training Tesla’s neural networks. I wonder how much own hardware they have developed for this, I assume that Elon Musk gave Pete Bannon two task:
1. Develop HW3
2. Develop hardware for Project Dojo

We know how well he did 1 from the Autonomy day. I would guess he did 2 equally well.

I wonder how much these cost, would not be surprised if Elon gave a green light to split the budget 50/50 for these and that Pete Bannon has built some pretty massive amount of very specific hardware to train Tesla’s neural network. Don’t think that these will compete with Alphabet’s TPU 3.0, but maybe they will perform better for Tesla’s specific needs. If so Tesla’s moat might just have gotten wider. Maybe they could compete, if so maybe Amazon/Microsoft/Google could be customers/competition. Would be pretty crazy if Tesla decides to enter the cloud compute market at some point. Hyperchange should make a video about this! =)

To be followed!

Yes please! The work of Tesla's computing teams is amazing. No other manufacturer would even dare begin to develop their own custom chips for implementing and running neural networks across the entire breadth of their use [from in-car to iterative tuning]. And here, we have the software and hardware sides working hand in glove.


I found the following screenshots from Karpathy's latest video worth sharing:

10:38 Karpathy video Navigate on Autopilot global map:
6Nov2019-PytorchAtTesla-Karpathy.jpg


Smart Summons map:
6Nov2019-PytorchAtTesla-Karpathy-Smart_Summon.jpg
 
No, many made in China products are as well built as imported one, if not better. And they are cheaper so “more worth buying”.

It’s just simply psychology.
I agree that many MIC products are well built, however some are not and the Chinese consumers make that determination. Of course, there's some status purchases just as in any country.
 
Fully Charged posted an interview with the Rivian engineers discussing their battery design. They allude to having better energy density compared to "competitors" due to better cooling methods. Any thoughts on this.

Tesla is continually improving anyway, but interesting to see if there is another company who can match them in this area.

relevant point starts at 13:00 mins

Thanks for sharing. Actually the whole video is really well produced (apart from the always slightly awkward close-up interviews in a car) and most of the positives are exactly the same for Tesla - torque control, OTA updates etc etc. IMO worth showing anyone skeptical about the benefits of EVs.
 
Yes it does. its called the insurance company.

No it doesn't and you know it doesn't.
The insurance market is fragmented and each insurer does not have every other insurers data. More importantly they also don't have data on minor unreported accidents, which make up the majority of accidents.
Tesla's Autopilot software detects every accident and reports it directly back to Tesla.
No other car has the capability to do this so the same data is not collected for any other car.

P.S. Please don't go off on a Mobileye marketing pitch again. Not interested.
 
Since it’s the weekend...

I don’t know how many have gotten 36.2.1, but "Hold" Stop Mode seems to allow significant reduction in non-regen braking during normal driving. In “Hold”, regen takes out everything down to 0 speed (at which time the parking brake is automatically applied).

I wonder if this significantly reduces brake wear and/or fluid replacement requirements? Since brake fluid replacement is one of the few scheduled maintenance items, increasing the interval could be of benefit to high-mileage use cases (such as, oh, I don’t know, autonomous taxis maybe?).

edit: On the other hand, "Hold" may just be there to eke out a little bit more range.
 
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Yes, Karpathy specifically described Project Dojo as Tesla's own neural network training chip: "doing the same order of magnitude speed improvement on the training side, as we did on the inference side with HW3, at lower costs".

Like I said previously, context is always being lost. You are comparing a 2019 chip with a 2015 chip. Ofcourse there would be magnitude speed improvement at lower or similar cost. Any AI inference chip in 2019/2010 destroys the Drive PX2, especially the board that Tesla was using which was a half Drive PX2. I don't understand what the hysteria is all about?

  • Nice top down "virtual LIDAR" data representation + videos in the presentation, "stitched together" real-time from 8 cameras by the neural networks themselves in the car, not by C++ code.
That's not a virtual Lidar, its an occupancy grid map using an RNN out their perception CNN's output of road edges. Again standard deep learning procedure.

Tesla could probably even open source all their NNs, and their competitors could still not catch them: Tesla has a fleet of soon to be 1,000,000 cars that are sending them training feedback all around the clock.
There's absolutely no proof of this, confirmed by verygreen/greentheonly.
Infact the percentage of training data being uploaded currently is more like 0.01%

Game, set, match?
Its Game, Set, Match if you are using standard deep learning 101 architectures and techniques? But the companies like Google's Waymo/DeepMind who are actually inventing new NN techniques and architectures to tackle the problem is actually 5 years behind. Am i right?
 
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Since it’s the weekend...

I don’t know how many have gotten 36.2.1, but "Hold" Stop Mode seems to allow significant reduction in non-regen braking during normal driving. In “Hold”, regen takes out everything down to 0 speed (at which time the parking brake is automatically applied).

I wonder if this significantly reduces brake wear and/or fluid replacement requirements? Since brake fluid replacement is one of the few scheduled maintenance items, increasing the interval could be of benefit to high-mileage use cases (such as, oh, I don’t know, autonomous taxis maybe?).

edit: On the other hand, "Hold" may just be there to eke out a little bit more range.
In the short time I have used it, I can say it’s the best drive mode, probably the safest too since it’s default is to come to a complete stop, not 5mph drive into stuff like creep, or the quick gas/brake/gas/brake when you are in “normal” at parking speeds. Where did you get the info that the parking brake is being used? When you put the car in park you can hear it engage, I heard nothing like that using hold.
 
Fully Charged posted an interview with the Rivian engineers discussing their battery design. They allude to having better energy density compared to "competitors" due to better cooling methods. Any thoughts on this.
He's talking about packing cells together more closely and only using the bottom of the cell for cooling. If they are using a more stable NMC chemistry, and using larger battery packs and stressing them less, cooling loads won't be as high and they can get away with this change. My interpretation anyway.
 
Here's an overall very positive article about the economics of EVs in fleets. The Tesloop fleet is featured, while also pointing out that Model 3 longterm costs are expected to be even lower.

Electric cars are changing the cost of driving
Thanks for the link. Does anyone know why the article says there were 6 battery replacements? Tesloop's original Model S (eHawk) had two replacements, but back in 2018 they said all their Model Xs were on original batteries and drive units. I know one Model X (Rex or Deuxy) subsequently got a new drive unit, but I never heard of other battery replacements. Now, suddenly, they've had 6? That seems unlikely, but if true is a good marker of the path toward the million mile battery.