Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Anecdotal evidence:

I live in remoteish rural UK. I'm the only Tesla owner in the village, NEVER seen one at the nearby coffee shop. Pulled in the car park today as a white model S was pulling out, to discover a white model 3 parked there!
BUY TESLA STOCK!

I'm seeing an increase in frequency of them all over inner London. There must be 8 or 9 that regularly park within a 2 block radius, including a few model threes over the last month or so.

This morning while walking my dog at Battersea Park there were three in the parking lot. A new record.

 

[dww12]

Here's my crazy prediction for the day (week, month, and year/life too).

Tonight, Ford will announce a partnership with Tesla. Tesla will be providing the drive train for the Mach E, and Ford will be building the bodies for the Model Y. Additionally, the Mach E will be able to use the Tesla supercharger network, and Ford will be building an agreed upon number of supercharging stations, branded Ford, that Tesla vehicles will also be able to use.

Why this prediction?

1. Look at the picture of the the "Lincoln" supercharger stall. It's eerily similar to a Tesla stall. They branded it Lincoln just to throw everyone off. I first had the Tesla/Ford partnership idea pop into my head when I saw that charging stall.

2. Look at the leaked pictures of the Mach E. It is nearly an exact copy of the Model Y. It's almost similar to how the Explorer and Mountaineer used to look - change the nose and the very back, and re-badge it. Additionally, look at the center screen. If that isn't straight from Tesla, I don't know what is. And you may ask about the instrument cluster. However, I'm sure Ford felt like they're older crowd of buyers would not be comfortable without an instrument cluster.

3. The timing of the Ford and Tesla reveals. Within 4 days of each other? Come on.

4. The CyberTruck. The F150 EV will also be powered by Tesla (my prediction I mean). Ford did not want to compete with Tesla in this segment. Not right away anyway. So Tesla is making something totally different than Ford - aimed at a different buyer.

The only question is: Why would Ford and Tesla each want to do this? How would each benefit? I have theories for that too, but the post would get WAY too long. But, if this partnership happens, it could really speed up the transition to sustainable transportation - and ultimately, that is Elon's goal. I think it also makes financial sense for both companies.

EDIT: An additional piece of evidence - The specs on both the Mach E and Model Y are eerily similar, right down to the exact miles on the range estimates. The only real difference between the 2 is storage where the Y has a little more. It looks like Ford and Tesla tried hard to make the cars even to give neither a significant advantage. And where did Ford suddenly come up with the battery technology to allow a X-over to get 270 and 300 miles of range? Rivian? I doubt it.

That’s either 100% correct, or ridiculous. It does look like Ford copied the Y specs line for line (slightly worse, none are better) and nobody else has come close... with similar pricing. How?

 

[jerry33]

the evidence is right in front of us!!
View attachment 477940

/S

The cable looks too skinny.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Details taking shape around GF4 investment on Twitter. Probably needs additional verfication.

Can any Germans advise how reputable automobilwoche.com is?

Hari Seldon on Twitter

 

[PeterJA]

Btw., my wife tried to solve the Cybrtrk Easter egg and puzzle, by printing it out on paper, cutting out & rearranging the 10 individual pieces:

View attachment 477908
​

But what she got was not a truck:

View attachment 477909
​

Dear God, how can this be coincidence? It is cleverness turned up to eleven.

If the product is as clever as its logo, look out automajors (especially Ford).

 

[SebastianR]

Incidentally I posted about this in the finance thread shortly before you wrote that, here's a repost: [...]
And here's a final mystery: in their Q4 report Tesla updated the 360k-400k 2019 deliveries guidance range to 360k only. Everyone, including me, interpreted this as an admission that they cannot hit 400k and can barely hit 360k in the best of cases.

I love your posts, I love the way you argue. But here I would like to remind all of us on the old "What You See Is All There Is" principle. Tesla would be in a world of pain if they were to remove the upper end of the guidance and then exceed that.

I do hope for a good Q4 but I do think we need to take Tesla guidance literally. I'm not aware of a single example in the past, where they "reduced" guidance and then exceeded it.

 

[printf42]

Btw., my wife tried to solve the Cybrtrk Easter egg and puzzle, by printing it out on paper, cutting out & rearranging the 10 individual pieces:

View attachment 477908
​

But what she got was not a truck:

View attachment 477909
​

FC trying to convince us he is not AI, also not a group of people.
Ok ok... I believe it.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla would be in a world of pain if they were to remove the upper end of the guidance and then exceed that.

I do hope for a good Q4 but I do think we need to take Tesla guidance literally. I'm not aware of a single example in the past, where they "reduced" guidance and then exceeded it.

They didn't "lower" the 400k upper limit, they removed it - and I don't see how they can be in a "world of hurt" over exceeding guidance.

There's many moving parts, and even getting above 360k will be excellent execution.

 

[dww12]

Here's my crazy prediction for the day (week, month, and year/life too).

Tonight, Ford will announce a partnership with Tesla. Tesla will be providing the drive train for the Mach E, and Ford will be building the bodies for the Model Y. Additionally, the Mach E will be able to use the Tesla supercharger network, and Ford will be building an agreed upon number of supercharging stations, branded Ford, that Tesla vehicles will also be able to use.

Why this prediction?

1. Look at the picture of the the "Lincoln" supercharger stall. It's eerily similar to a Tesla stall. They branded it Lincoln just to throw everyone off. I first had the Tesla/Ford partnership idea pop into my head when I saw that charging stall.

2. Look at the leaked pictures of the Mach E. It is nearly an exact copy of the Model Y. It's almost similar to how the Explorer and Mountaineer used to look - change the nose and the very back, and re-badge it. Additionally, look at the center screen. If that isn't straight from Tesla, I don't know what is. And you may ask about the instrument cluster. However, I'm sure Ford felt like they're older crowd of buyers would not be comfortable without an instrument cluster.

3. The timing of the Ford and Tesla reveals. Within 4 days of each other? Come on.

4. The CyberTruck. The F150 EV will also be powered by Tesla (my prediction I mean). Ford did not want to compete with Tesla in this segment. Not right away anyway. So Tesla is making something totally different than Ford - aimed at a different buyer.

The only question is: Why would Ford and Tesla each want to do this? How would each benefit? I have theories for that too, but the post would get WAY too long. But, if this partnership happens, it could really speed up the transition to sustainable transportation - and ultimately, that is Elon's goal. I think it also makes financial sense for both companies.

EDIT: An additional piece of evidence - The specs on both the Mach E and Model Y are eerily similar, right down to the exact miles on the range estimates. The only real difference between the 2 is storage where the Y has a little more. It looks like Ford and Tesla tried hard to make the cars even to give neither a significant advantage. And where did Ford suddenly come up with the battery technology to allow a X-over to get 270 and 300 miles of range? Rivian? I doubt it.

We will know if this is true tonight if Tommy from Fast Lane Car immediately backs the car into a wall during his test drive.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

That’s either 100% correct, or ridiculous. It does look like Ford copied the Y specs line for line (slightly worse, none are better) and nobody else has come close... with similar pricing. How?

EXACTLY!! If Ford has done this on their own, or with Rivian, they have wiped out Tesla's 7 year advantage overnight. The only area they would be deficient in is the charging network. And if we're honest, Ford has the resources to buildout a fast charging network very quickly. That gap would be eliminated in less than a year.

It's also possible that Ford is simply throwing a lot of kWh in the battery to get the range to match Tesla - and then will just lose money on every car, and limit production to around 25k. This would be about the same as buying ZEV credits - but would let them gain credibility in the EV space.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

True but AZ is right in the assessment that here in Europe FUDsters will use it against the mission. The narrative they spread with just another wrong calculated "study" (ADAC) about carbon emission is the larger the battery the worse it is for environment and unfortunately many people believe in this nonsense.

Also there is a long standing effort against SUV and trucks as polluters in EU too lead for instance by the Green Party. They try to convince people to do more public transportation which is good but many people just can't or have to have a utility truck for work.

In the heads of people they will just combine large battery and SUV/Truck and start with negativity.

Media will know how to use that for their benefit.

While I fully agree that every cyber truck will be a strong positive, even stronger than for small vehicles, the public is so mislead they don't see the forest because of all those trees.

Europeans are a special bunch. They’ll complain about the environmental impact of a large EV truck, but they’ve had no issue being the biggest supporters of diesel cars/trucks. You can’t make this stuff up....

 

[Words of HABIT]

For the last year TSLA has been a wash...a 50% drop and a 100% recovery. So we are now at price levels from a year ago.
Compare this to the Market indices: DOW +12%, S&P500 +16%, NASDAQ +22%.
Add a couple of stocks for comparison: Toyota Motors (TM) +23%, NVD +41%, APPL +42%,

So Tesla must have had a horrible year, right? $350/sh flat, and same level as before the infamous 420 tweet of September 2018.

What did happen was Tesla's Shanghai factor was built from swamp to production ready in 10 months. Tesla announced the MY production was six months ahead of schedule, and now we have the Cybrtrk reveal. I'd say TSLA has some catching up to do.

 

[davepsilon]

Btw., my wife tried to solve the Cybrtrk Easter egg and puzzle, by printing it out on paper, cutting out & rearranging ...

View attachment 477909
​

​

if you allow a piece to flip on the vertical axis (ie color in the backside of the printout) the extra small leg of the A looks like it would fit at the top, overlapping the other large leg slightly, instead of the bottom. Even more perfect TESLA ... A video of this shift would be fun at the reveal.

 

[dww12]

Here's my crazy prediction for the day (week, month, and year/life too).

Tonight, Ford will announce a partnership with Tesla. Tesla will be providing the drive train for the Mach E, and Ford will be building the bodies for the Model Y. Additionally, the Mach E will be able to use the Tesla supercharger network, and Ford will be building an agreed upon number of supercharging stations, branded Ford, that Tesla vehicles will also be able to use.

Why this prediction?

1. Look at the picture of the the "Lincoln" supercharger stall. It's eerily similar to a Tesla stall. They branded it Lincoln just to throw everyone off. I first had the Tesla/Ford partnership idea pop into my head when I saw that charging stall.

2. Look at the leaked pictures of the Mach E. It is nearly an exact copy of the Model Y. It's almost similar to how the Explorer and Mountaineer used to look - change the nose and the very back, and re-badge it. Additionally, look at the center screen. If that isn't straight from Tesla, I don't know what is. And you may ask about the instrument cluster. However, I'm sure Ford felt like they're older crowd of buyers would not be comfortable without an instrument cluster.

3. The timing of the Ford and Tesla reveals. Within 4 days of each other? Come on.

4. The CyberTruck. The F150 EV will also be powered by Tesla (my prediction I mean). Ford did not want to compete with Tesla in this segment. Not right away anyway. So Tesla is making something totally different than Ford - aimed at a different buyer.

The only question is: Why would Ford and Tesla each want to do this? How would each benefit? I have theories for that too, but the post would get WAY too long. But, if this partnership happens, it could really speed up the transition to sustainable transportation - and ultimately, that is Elon's goal. I think it also makes financial sense for both companies.

EDIT: An additional piece of evidence - The specs on both the Mach E and Model Y are eerily similar, right down to the exact miles on the range estimates. The only real difference between the 2 is storage where the Y has a little more. It looks like Ford and Tesla tried hard to make the cars even to give neither a significant advantage. And where did Ford suddenly come up with the battery technology to allow a X-over to get 270 and 300 miles of range? Rivian? I doubt it.

Also why no copy cat comment from Elon? And has Ford said what the E stands for? Is it electric or ELON.

 

[Unpilot]

Tell that to my blind friend who uses a flip phone just fine. I was trying to encourage him to try using a smart phone he could talk to. Then he was with me in my Tesla when the voice commands stopped working.

Smart phones are pretty funny too. Sometimes I forget to turn off the airplane mode when leaving the house and ask it to turn that off. You know what it says... "Sorry, I can't do that. i'm in airplane mode".

SMI

Scan Mode initiated.

 

[dww12]

FC trying to convince us he is not AI, also not a group of people.
Ok ok... I believe it.

Yep, he’s either male or a lesbian.

 

[defc0n]

Here's my crazy prediction for the day (week, month, and year/life too).

Tonight, Ford will announce a partnership with Tesla. Tesla will be providing the drive train for the Mach E, and Ford will be building the bodies for the Model Y. Additionally, the Mach E will be able to use the Tesla supercharger network, and Ford will be building an agreed upon number of supercharging stations, branded Ford, that Tesla vehicles will also be able to use.

Why this prediction?

1. Look at the picture of the the "Lincoln" supercharger stall. It's eerily similar to a Tesla stall. They branded it Lincoln just to throw everyone off. I first had the Tesla/Ford partnership idea pop into my head when I saw that charging stall.

2. Look at the leaked pictures of the Mach E. It is nearly an exact copy of the Model Y. It's almost similar to how the Explorer and Mountaineer used to look - change the nose and the very back, and re-badge it. Additionally, look at the center screen. If that isn't straight from Tesla, I don't know what is. And you may ask about the instrument cluster. However, I'm sure Ford felt like they're older crowd of buyers would not be comfortable without an instrument cluster.

3. The timing of the Ford and Tesla reveals. Within 4 days of each other? Come on.

4. The CyberTruck. The F150 EV will also be powered by Tesla (my prediction I mean). Ford did not want to compete with Tesla in this segment. Not right away anyway. So Tesla is making something totally different than Ford - aimed at a different buyer.

The only question is: Why would Ford and Tesla each want to do this? How would each benefit? I have theories for that too, but the post would get WAY too long. But, if this partnership happens, it could really speed up the transition to sustainable transportation - and ultimately, that is Elon's goal. I think it also makes financial sense for both companies.

EDIT: An additional piece of evidence - The specs on both the Mach E and Model Y are eerily similar, right down to the exact miles on the range estimates. The only real difference between the 2 is storage where the Y has a little more. It looks like Ford and Tesla tried hard to make the cars even to give neither a significant advantage. And where did Ford suddenly come up with the battery technology to allow a X-over to get 270 and 300 miles of range? Rivian? I doubt it.

got the crazy part right

No offense — my lawyer called me crazy yesterday too

 

[ZsoZso]

the evidence is right in front of us!!
View attachment 477940

/S

This latest innovation of shapes and esthetics from Ford is really dazzling me. First the shape, nose cone and interior of Mach-E, now this innovative charger form/shape. They must have hired a designer with amazing skills*.

Spoiler: *

As in amazing copy-paste skills like a good 3rd grader kid looking at the next kid's drawing

 

[Fact Checking]

Tonight, Ford will announce a partnership with Tesla. Tesla will be providing the drive train for the Mach E, and Ford will be building the bodies for the Model Y. Additionally, the Mach E will be able to use the Tesla supercharger network, and Ford will be building an agreed upon number of supercharging stations, branded Ford, that Tesla vehicles will also be able to use.

Hm, I'd normally be sceptical, but back in February @KarenRei mentioned a rumor from a "little birdie" about one of the Big Three having a powertrain partnership agreement with Tesla:

ED: Okay, I've been given permission to be a bit less vague (jumping back to the earlier topic):

A little birdie says that - independent of their own truck programme - Tesla has partnered with [major automaker name redacted] to provide the powertrain for their electric pickup programme, due out [time redacted - not exactly tomorrow, but not exactly five years from now either ].

Dig a bit more into companies who you'd expect to have an interest in electric pickups but *haven't* announced powertrain partnerships with anyone for them, and you might be able to figure this out. But that's all I can say.

It's also possible that the little birdie is wrong. The evidence to me says no. But again, I can't elaborate on why.

My guess was FCA - but maybe it's Ford?

The timing mentioned by Karen would fit.

There's also this recent poll by Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter:

"Poll: Gentrify Mordor?"​

Mordor = the Rust Belt and Ford?

Could Tesla and Ford unveil a truck at Tesla's event?? (And the Cybertruck would be driven by Harrison Ford. )

Might explain the Blade Runner form factor: non-compete with Ford for the traditional pickup truck form factor?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Btw., my wife tried to solve the Cybrtrk Easter egg and puzzle, by printing it out on paper, cutting out & rearranging the 10 individual pieces:

View attachment 477908
​

But what she got was not a truck:

View attachment 477909
​

I think this is the one!