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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I don't want to raise expectations, but I'm starting to see a very realistic possibility that Tesla posts Q4 deliveries far above my base case of 110k, possibly as high as 103k Model 3s and 20k S&X. Without any contribution from GF3.
There are now many separate data points suggesting Model 3 production has increased towards 100k per quarter at Fremont vs 79.8k in Q3.
- Panasonic suggested 20% QoQ GF1 cell production increase.
- Carsonight reported 20% QoQ GF1 Pack production increase to 8k per week. Cleantechnica reported 7k packs were sent to China in the 12 weeks to mid October before shipments were finished. If we assume this is true and there has been no further pack stockpile build since, then about 10 out of 12 weeks were produced in Q3 and 2 of 12 in Q4 (so 1.2k packs sent in Q4). This puts Q4 packs going to Fremont at 13*8k -1.2k = 104k -1.2k = 102.8k Model 3s produced at Fremont
- International ship loading days up 60% QoQ QTD and assuming we are now finished for the quarter, will finish up 49% QoQ. This suggests International Shipments of 50-55k Model 3s this quarter.
- US delivery date entries in Troy's tracker are up 40% in the first 64 days of the quarter (up to December 3rd) vs the first 64 days of Q3. I have seen many people assume Tesla has been producing 100% international cars this quarter, but this doesn't look to be true at all. It seems US production has also increased QoQ so far this quarter. There are 149 delivery date entries in the spreadsheet in this period in Q4 vs 114 in the same period of Q3, 40% QoQ growth. This did include a large acceleration in the last 7 days. If we assume Tesla stopped International production after 57 days this Q we can instead take just the first 57 days of Q4. Here there are 107 entries or +4% growth vs 103 in Q3. InsideEVs estimated 44k US deliveries in Q3 (I don't trust their monthly breakdown) and in Troy's tracker 1/3rd of Q3 US delivery entries were in the first 57 days - suggesting c.15k US deliveries in the first 57 days of Q3. Taking 4% growth suggests 15.5k deliveries in this period of Q4. If we assume half of these were inventory and half new production it suggests Tesla potentially produced 58-63k Model 3s in the first 57 days - which extrapolates to 93k-101.5k total Q4 Model 3 production and largely reconciling with the datapoints we have from GF1.
Yeah, I've also been trying to not let myself get too optimistic, but I can't deny the very real possibility of this. This quarter has just been nuts.
Report recently noted Tesla had ordered suppliers to speed up model y as well as semi components. I dont have the link to refer to sorry.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Older S/X packs are already doing more than 300K miles so I don't see that as a longer lifespan. That's only 1K cycles for a 300 mile range pack. I think 500K miles is already realistic for existing packs. I'm mostly expecting a switch to NMC chemistry will be announced on Battery Day, maybe even without the C.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
dc_h
Active Member
There’s also work to transform Fukushima district into a renewable hub. Tesla Energy could be a big Battery storage supplier in partnership with Panasonic. It could be Elon is also meeting with Panasonic, to assure them adding capacity is a long term need, not short term thing to get Shanghai started. We’ve got model Y coming guys, we are going to need 50 GW production in 2020 at least.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Irrespective of whether they do or not - it will be one of the highest selling auto accessories on Amazon/E-Bay.
Tesla should make miniature truck (with shattered decal glass) and sell now.
Well, they might not be able to make it before Christmas.
I could totally see a RC CT become hottest toy of the year.
But if they didn’t plan for that, an expensive 1:18 later would also sell like hot cakes to those inner-12-yr-olds.
Ps: Tesla should sell a car pack in racing games, Forza/GT etc.
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RFernatt
Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast
Maybe something like these with the metal ball instead of the usual golf ball or baseball.
Thanksgiving Report:
It turns out that at our table was a family friend who is an executive for an autogroup dealer network of modest size (not Auto Nation by any means). Tesla came up and I thought it might be informative to others as to his thinking. Median age was probably mid sixties.
1. He expressed several times that Tesla is only popular on the coasts and that the middle of the country has much less interest. He seemed to see this as a substantial problem for Tesla but never volunteered any details.
2. He expressed that Tesla has a problem with their charging network since they are so far apart whereas he sees his dealerships averaging about 30 miles apart and they are building out chargers and of course already have great service.
3. He did like the stock as a trading vehicle since it tends to trade in nice wide range. When it gets toward the top of it's range it is time to sell and when it gets toward the bottom of it's range it is time to buy.
4. He stated repeatedly that the Ford Mach E was popular that it was already sold out and the same with Daimler's EV products.
5. He said that autonomous driving will not be realized in his life time. I took this as mostly dismissive since he is in his later 60s.
6. He seems to view Tesla in an mildly appreciative manner for popularizing what will be that next step for the automobile industry in the future but merely an annoyance now.
7. Never mentioned UBER/ride sharing one way or another. He has never been in a Tesla and arrived in an Cadillac Escalade.
Also at the table was another Model 3 Performance owner with 20K miles traveled mostly for business.
He said he would never buy another gas car but that his Tesla experience had been frustrating. He considered selling it twice and openly says he hates the company but loves the car. In 11 months he had 6 flat tires, damaged rims, broke the display (he paid) and scrapped a fender when parking. He has had a frustrating experience with communications with Tesla but likes the Tesla ranger when the Tesla phone communications system finally delivers.
He tends to drive longer distances at high speeds. He is spending a fair chunk of money to get 19" wheels hoping to get better reliability. He has never been contacted by Tesla to install his (missing) spoiler and his SW updates have never provided "track mode" which he did pay for as part of his performance package and this is a piss-off for him. He has FSD and uses autopilot on long drives and likes it. He had no idea there was a HW board swap coming to him related to the FSD he purchased. He says his next car will be an S.
He really wants to just use the phone to talk to Tesla and this has been problematical for him. He lives on the phone and is insanely busy.
My take.
It was like two sides of the same coin. Both positions were expressive of their world view. Auto dealer exec dismissive of disruption coming toward him from the future and new Model 3 owner expecting the benefits of disruption but struggling and frustrated with the time investments early adopters may need to make in those first steps into the future. Zero mention of the CT.
Both were fun at the table and I kept a pretty low profile just enjoying the company and warm spirits and avoiding religion, politics and Tesla. When I got home I remeasured the garage to be sure the CT will fit. Next year should be interesting.
It turns out that at our table was a family friend who is an executive for an autogroup dealer network of modest size (not Auto Nation by any means). Tesla came up and I thought it might be informative to others as to his thinking. Median age was probably mid sixties.
1. He expressed several times that Tesla is only popular on the coasts and that the middle of the country has much less interest. He seemed to see this as a substantial problem for Tesla but never volunteered any details.
2. He expressed that Tesla has a problem with their charging network since they are so far apart whereas he sees his dealerships averaging about 30 miles apart and they are building out chargers and of course already have great service.
3. He did like the stock as a trading vehicle since it tends to trade in nice wide range. When it gets toward the top of it's range it is time to sell and when it gets toward the bottom of it's range it is time to buy.
4. He stated repeatedly that the Ford Mach E was popular that it was already sold out and the same with Daimler's EV products.
5. He said that autonomous driving will not be realized in his life time. I took this as mostly dismissive since he is in his later 60s.
6. He seems to view Tesla in an mildly appreciative manner for popularizing what will be that next step for the automobile industry in the future but merely an annoyance now.
7. Never mentioned UBER/ride sharing one way or another. He has never been in a Tesla and arrived in an Cadillac Escalade.
Also at the table was another Model 3 Performance owner with 20K miles traveled mostly for business.
He said he would never buy another gas car but that his Tesla experience had been frustrating. He considered selling it twice and openly says he hates the company but loves the car. In 11 months he had 6 flat tires, damaged rims, broke the display (he paid) and scrapped a fender when parking. He has had a frustrating experience with communications with Tesla but likes the Tesla ranger when the Tesla phone communications system finally delivers.
He tends to drive longer distances at high speeds. He is spending a fair chunk of money to get 19" wheels hoping to get better reliability. He has never been contacted by Tesla to install his (missing) spoiler and his SW updates have never provided "track mode" which he did pay for as part of his performance package and this is a piss-off for him. He has FSD and uses autopilot on long drives and likes it. He had no idea there was a HW board swap coming to him related to the FSD he purchased. He says his next car will be an S.
He really wants to just use the phone to talk to Tesla and this has been problematical for him. He lives on the phone and is insanely busy.
My take.
It was like two sides of the same coin. Both positions were expressive of their world view. Auto dealer exec dismissive of disruption coming toward him from the future and new Model 3 owner expecting the benefits of disruption but struggling and frustrated with the time investments early adopters may need to make in those first steps into the future. Zero mention of the CT.
Both were fun at the table and I kept a pretty low profile just enjoying the company and warm spirits and avoiding religion, politics and Tesla. When I got home I remeasured the garage to be sure the CT will fit. Next year should be interesting.
Does anyone know what the loading bay or skillion thingy is on the side of the battery building? My initial thought, given its size and height is that it may eventually become a conveyor belt to the main building to transport packs to the manufacturing line. However the lack of construction between the two writes off that theory.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Wrap it in foil. Done. ;-)
Great feedback.
While service is a relatively taboo topic here given its ability to derail discussions, its very helpful to me as an investor to hear peoples stories around Tesla's current performance in this area. A strong enough reputation for poor service will create a drag on demand.
Interesting, many here are expecting a blowout in terms of deliveries in Q4. However if Megapack really is a priority then Tesla may just get over the 360k annual guidance for vehicle deliveries this quarter and divert the rest to energy.
This is a great problem to have though. Limiting vehicle supply allows Tesla to keep vehicle prices high. Also, if Tesla is pumping out Megapacks to help solve California's energy problem or some other equally notable project it will light a fire for Megapack demand.
What was discussed is whether it would take $2B or $3B and whether half of it would be equity.
The market reaction to the "potential news" that Tesla paid $2-3B was NOT discussed. The reaction seems remotely related to the thread title. I mean, not long term, but then why do options come up here all the time?
Ok, I thought in the context of prior discussion it was clear that we're discussing a possibility.
Pretty obvious to me that for actual news of this size anybody would include a link.
Sure, there can be many reasons. However, in the long term context of 2Twh and Maxwell purchase, the question is - does Tesla want to be dependent on Pana in this expansion given how Pana delayed ramping up GF1 and that little spat we heard about, when Elon said Tesla is not planning further investments into GF1 until the current lines are up to the promised specs.
So, if something is to happen in this regard eventually and the battery investor day is ~4mo away when, supposedly, Elon will not be talking possibilities, but the actual plan that is already in motion, then it seems that we should take a min of "eventually" and "4 months".
I'm just speculating possibilities here, no news
So, then if Elon has 4 months to figure this out, what are the chances he's just chilling out there?
50%, right? He either is or he isn't.
All I'm saying.
Nice to hear. That fallout with Banks seems to have stressed things out. Maybe things are finally under control enough that it should no longer matter.
I wasn't tracking the moves to the degree of Tokyo vs Osaka, but maybe Elon can combine business and pleasure on one trip.
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I see what you did there.
Obviously not peanuts, they are not actually a nut at all. Are you a troll? Clearly it is cashews. But..I find it more than suspicious that you don't even mention macadamias. Are you protecting a short position in hawaiian macadamias?
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